NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 1st - Page Two
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -1.5, 203 Over/Under
- Dallas Mavericks Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Portland Trail Blazers Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Leonard-Plumlee
| Dallas Mavericks | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.50 | Team Pace | 98.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Meyers Leonard | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 28 | Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 29 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 15 | |
Dallas Mavericks (Record: 10-8, Road: 5-6)
The Mavericks lost last night against the Kings and now have to turn around and play again tonight in Portland. With these veteran teams, back-to-back situations are always a concern. There hasn’t been anything announced yet today, but Chandler Parsons and possibly Dirk Nowitzki could end up getting the night off.
- Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.9 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.8 (17 of 30)
The Mavericks draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Blazers. On the season, Portland is ranked between 10th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks have an implied team total of 100.8 points, which is right around their average points scored for the season.
- Injury Watch:
Jose Juan Barea (O)
As mentioned above, I’m a little wary of playing Dirk Nowitzki tonight. While the matchup is favorable, I don’t love the idea of playing him in the second half of a back-to-back. If I’m playing a Maverick’s big man, I’d rather use Zaza Pachulia. Wesley Matthews is one of my favorite plays in the entire slate, though. His minutes are trending upward (32.9 in his last five), his price is still extremely cheap, and he has the revenge narrative going for him against his former team. Deron Williams is also a borderline elite play. He has averaged 28.3 fantasy points per game in his last five.
Elite Plays
Deron Williams
FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 28.3
Wesley Matthews
FD — $4,700 — SG
DK — $4,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 32.9
FP/Game — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Secondary Plays
Zaza Pachulia
FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $6,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Raymond Felton
FD — $3,700 — PG
DK — $3,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.5 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 26.5
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Portland Trail Blazers (Record: 7-11, Home: 4-4)
The Blazers have not played well on the road this season, but they own a respectable 4-4 record at home. Tonight they host the visiting Mavericks. Damian Lillard left last night’s game with an abdominal injury. While he is listed as questionable, he hasn’t missed a game in his career and judging by the spread, the oddsmakers seem to think that he is going to play.
- Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.0 (14 of 30)
The Mavericks have been an average defense this season. They are ranked between 12th and 14th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Blazers have an implied team total of 102.3 points tonight, which is 2.5-points higher than their average points scored this season.
- Injury Watch:
Chris Kaman (O)
Damian Lillard (GTD)
If I had to guess, I’d say that Damian Lillard will be in the lineup tonight. He is as durable of a player as you can find in the NBA. He is the anti-Rose (or the anti-Brow) if you will. If he is in the lineup, Lillard and C.J. McCollum are both in play here. If he is ruled out, McCollum becomes a must play in all league formats. Al-Farouq Aminu and Tim Frazier would also see a boost. Mason Plumlee had been on a roll before Meyers Leonard returned to the lineup, but he has only played 24 minutes in back-to-back games. For now, I’m going to avoid the Blazers’ frontcourt.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard
If he is able to play tonight.
FD — $9,400 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 29.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 39.0 | Last Five Games: 38.7
C.J. McCollum
McCollum is an elite play if Damian Lillard is out and a secondary play if he is able to suit up.
FD — $6,700 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 30.5
Secondary Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu
FD — $5,700 — SF
DK — $6,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Tim Frazier
FD — $3,500 — PG
DK — $3,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 8.4 | Last Five Games: 10.0
Min/Game — Season: 3.5 | Last Five Games: 3.9
FP/Game — Season: 2.2 | Last Five Games: 2.2