NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Dallas at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 196 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Dallas
The Mavericks and Bobcats both play at a fairly average pace. Both teams average between 95-96 possessions per game and the total that is set suggests that this will be a decent game to target as fantasy as fantasy production goes. The Mavericks are only 3 point favorites and this game should remain close all the way through.
The Bobcats are holding their opponents to 97 points per game which is pretty impressive, but that 97 points hasn’t exactly translated to holding their opponents to low fantasy point totals. Over the last 15 days the Bobcats are ranked 25th or worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, SG’s, and Centers. The one position that they have defended well all season is the PF position. While Dirk Nowitzki is a tough matchup for anyone, Josh McRoberts is a solid perimeter defender and I think Dirk is over-priced for his less than favorable matchup.
- Monta Ellis – Monta has become a much more consistent fantasy player this season. On the Mavs, he isn’t asked to do as much offensively and that has really steadied his fantasy output. He’s still averaging over 30 FP’s per game though and he should be able to top that mark tonight against the Bobcats who have struggled against SG’s lately.
- Samuel Dalembert – I like Dalembert as a deep sleeper tonight. His price across the industry is very cheap and he has averaged 24 FP’s per game over his last 4. Big Dal could see a small increase in minutes tonight as they will need a big body in there to defend Al Jefferson. He’s an under the radar play that could easily exceed his needed fantasy value.
Charlotte
The Bobcats have a nice matchup against the Mavericks who are allowing 102 PPG to their opponents this season. The Bobcats are averaging close to 100 PPG over their last 5 games and should get close to that mark again tonight. Now that Kemba Walker is healthy, the Bobcats will look to push the pace a bit more than they did with Ramon Sessions at the helm.
Looking at the DvP rankings of the Mavericks, they have been very average defensively this season. The Mavs are ranked between 13th and 17th in terms of fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. While that means there aren’t any great matchups, there aren’t any bad matchups either. Al Jefferson should continue his hot play, but his price is close to that of DeMarcus Cousins and I like his upside more tonight.
- Kemba Walker – Walker has played well in his first two games back from his injury and he hasn’t been on any kind of minutes restriction. Walker has really played well at home this season where he is averaging over 32 FP’s per game. He has a favorable matchup against Calderon and he should look to push the pace and create some easy opportunities in transition.
- Gerald Henderson – Henderson is always in that tough salary range where most people tend to either spend more and take a top notch SG or try to save some salary cap with a cheaper SG. He has played well lately though and has topped 27 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games. He will have a nice height advantage over Monta if they can get him the ball in the post.
Sacramento at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1, 204 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
Sacramento
This game is expected to be close and high scoring, both of which are news to our fantasy ears. The Cavs are giving up 102 PPG this season and Vegas expects this game to be high scoring with a total set at 204 points. I always like targeting these games where two bad teams get together because defense is often left at the door and these often turn into track meets.
The Cavs have not been great defensively this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s on the season. It’s hard to find a matchup that I don’t like tonight. The best three plays here are the big 3 of the Kings. Rudy Gay is probably my least favorite of the bunch just because he will be defended by Luol Deng who is a very solid defender.
- Isaiah Thomas – Even though Thomas is dealing with a sprained left wrist, he has been playing through it and it doesn’t appear like it has impacted his play at all. I love his matchup tonight against Kyrie and the Cavs who have given up the 2nd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. PG’s have had big games against the Cavs time and time again this season.
- DeMarcus Cousins – I saw a very telling statistic today with Cousins. Cousins leads the league in usage rate at 32.7% which is even higher than Kevin Durant. Usage Rate basically tells you the % of a team’s offensive possessions that a player uses while on the court. Cousins is going to be involved heavily tonight and I think he could have one of his 50+ FP outings.
Cleveland
While neither of these teams are very exciting for the average NBA fan, they are definitely exciting for us daily fantasy players. Neither of these teams minds getting into a track meet and both of these teams have really struggled defensively this season. Over the last 15 days, the Kings are ranked 20th or worse against all five positions on the floor.
The Kings are giving up 103 PPG this season and the Cavs offense has really played much better at home than it has on the road. Tristan Thompson makes a nice value play on a couple of sites where his price is depressed. I also like Dion Waiters as an upside play off of the bench. He doesn’t start, but he gets close to starter’s minutes and the matchup bodes well for him. Luol Deng is also worth a mention, after two down games his price has come down across the industry.
- Kyrie Irving – Kyrie has played considerably better at home this season than he has on the road. The most promising thing about Irving is that he has been able to stay away from those awful fantasy performances that were a common occurance earlier in the season. Irving has topped 28 FP’s in 13 straight games. The Kings do not defend PG’s well and Kyrie should be considered one of the top dollar for dollar plays at PG tonight.
- Anderson Varejao – Varejao’s minutes were down there for a little while, but he played 43 minutes in their last game and I expect him to start seeing a consistent 35 minutes going forward. He is flying under the radar tonight, but I love his salary on most sites and think that he will have an excellent game against Cousins. Andy is averaging over 30 FP’s per game at home and I think he should reach that mark tonight.
Atlanta at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 186.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Atlanta
Even though the Hawks play at a fairly quick pace (97 possessions per game), they are facing a Bulls team that is at the very bottom of the league in pace of play (93 possessions per game). That does not bode well for the Hawks’ fantasy value tonight. Even though this game is expected to stay close, it has a very low total and the Hawks will likely see a few less possessions than their season average.
The DvP rankings of the Bulls don’t help the Hawks’ situation tonight either. The Bulls are ranked 12th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to all to five positions on the floor. Unless one of the Hawks’ players is extremely under-priced on the site that you are playing on, it’s probably best to stay away from them tonight.
Chicago
The Bulls on the other hand are in a pretty favorable position. They should see a couple of extra possessions than their season average and the Hawks have not been very good defensively this season. Carlos Boozer has missed the last 2 games for the Bulls and is currently listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. If he can’t go, make sure to get Taj Gibson in your lineups, he has been a fantasy stud when given starter’s minutes.
There are quite a few value plays on the Bulls tonight. Kirk Hinrich is close to minimum salary across the board and has been playing 25+ minutes as a starter. I think he has a decent shot of topping 20 FP’s in this one. D.J. Augustin also makes an interesting upside play, even though he is coming off the bench, his price is very low considering the upside that he provides.
- Joakim Noah – Noah makes a great play tonight against the Hawks even if Boozer is in the lineup. While the Hawks are ranked 1st against Centers over the last 15 days, I have a hard time seeing Ayon and Brand keeping Noah off the glass. Ayon is not a great offensive player so Noah will be able to help off of his man and should be able to pick up a few weak side blocks.
Washington at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 183 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Washington
It’s really amazing how low the total of the game is every time the Grizzlies are playing. Depending on the matchup, the Wizards usually have a total between 190-205 points, but tonight it is set at 183 points which is the lowest of the night by far. The Grizzlies establish their tempo in basically every game regardless of who their opponent is. While I would like to give you a play or two from the Wizards, I just don’t see it tonight. The Grizzlies play at the slowest pace in the league (92) and are ranked 8th or better at defending PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and Centers.
Memphis
The Grizzlies have a decent matchup tonight, but we can’t really give them a fantasy boost because they are going to play at the same pace regardless of their opponent. The Grizzlies rarely look to outrun teams. That said, the absence of Mike Conley and Tony Allen means big minutes for both Nick Calathes and Courtney Lee once again. I’ll probably be avoiding the bigs of the Grizzlies though, the Wizards have been very stout down low this season and are a pretty decent rebounding team.
- Nick Calathes – Calathes’ run as a starter will soon come to an end, but he will likely get two more starts before the All-Star break. Calathes has really played well as the starter and is averaging over 25 FP’s during that stretch. His price is still cheap across the industry and I like the matchup against Wall.
- Courtney Lee – Even though the DvP rankings suggest otherwise, Lee should be in for another nice outing tonight. He has played well as the starting SG and has topped 19 FP’s in 6 straight games. Lee is a bit cheaper than Calathes, but offers similar upside.
Miami at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 208.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Miami
The Heat and Suns game is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. While the Heat play at a slow pace (94 possessions per game), they lead the league in offensive efficiency. They have a favorable matchup tonight against the Suns who average 98 possessions per game and are giving up 102 PPG to their opponents this season.
Dwyane Wade went through shoot-around this morning and in the past, he has typically suited up after going through shoot-around. He still makes a risky play on sites that lock their lineups, but he makes a decent play on sites that allow the late swap. Chris Bosh has come back down to Earth after a hot stretch of games. The good news is that his price tag has also come crashing down. I think he should play well in a matchup against Plumlee. Mario Chalmers makes a nice contrarian play at PG tonight, he will likely be asked to play big minutes as he will be defending the tough Goran Dragic.
- LeBron James – LeBron owns the 3rd highest usage rate in the league at 29.9% which is only lower than Cousins and Durant. LeBron is coming off of one of his worst fantasy performances that I can remember. He failed to top 25 FP’s against the Jazz. Call me crazy, but I don’t see LeBron having two bad outings in a row. Before the game against the Jazz, he had 3 straight games over 55 FP’s and I expect his total tonight to be much closer to 55 than 25.
Phoenix
When you think of a matchup against the Heat, it’s not typically one that you think of in a favorable light. However, the Suns are projected to score 102 points tonight and those points are going to come from somewhere. This is a tough one though because the most consistent fantasy option on the Suns, Goran Dragic, has the worst matchup of all the starters. The Heat have allowed the 3rd fewest FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. I think Dragic will still get his, but for the price, I think there are better options.
- Markieff Morris – It’s been a while since I have recommended taking Markieff, but this is a perfect matchup for him. Shane Battier will start out on Channing Frye and he should be able to keep him in check. I have a feeling Markieff could push for 30 minutes tonight and if that hunch is right, he will be in for a very nice fantasy outing. He’s my sleeper pick of the night.