NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Minnesota at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -11, 198 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Budinger-Young-Dieng
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Minnesota | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.32 | Team Pace | 95.33 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Chase Budinger | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 25 | Opp. Season | 25 | 22 | 29 | 18 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 22 | |
Minnesota
The hits just keep coming for the Wolves. They are already without Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Martin. Now we can add Shabazz Muhammad to the list, as he will miss the next two weeks with an abdominal strain. Tonight the short-handed Wolves head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. The Pacers play at a slightly below-average pace and own a top ten defense. The Wolves’ team total is only set at 93.5 points, which is considerably lower than their season average of 98.2 points per game. The matchup isn’t ideal, but the injuries have opened up a lot of minutes in the Wolves’ rotation.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 15-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
Wiggins is a border-line elite play tonight. He will likely spend some time at both shooting guard and small forward, two positions that the Pacers have kept in check this season. The reason that he’s listed here is two-fold. Wiggins should see close to 40 minutes of action tonight and should see a small increase in his usage with Shabazz Muhammad out. Anytime a player is expected to see Jimmy Butler-type of minutes, he’s going to be on my radar.
Secondary Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Williams missed a game with an ankle injury, but returned against the Spurs. He was not limited in any fashion, as evidenced by his 32 minutes of playing time. With Ricky Rubio’s return on the horizon, Williams will likely have only a few starts left, so he will try to make the most of them. He’s been extremely productive as a starter this season, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. You aren’t going to find that production often from a player at his price point.
Chase Budinger (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 17)
We are scraping the bottom of the value barrel with this pick. He should draw another start tonight in place of the injured Shabazz Muhammad. He only played 18 minutes in his last start, but should see more playing time tonight, especially if he is playing well. There are worse fantasy options at minimum salary tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers are not an offensive juggernaut, but could dress up as one tonight. They draw a terrific matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season, allowing their opponents to score an average of 108.3 points per game. If you look at the Defense vs. Position rankings, you will see a lot of blue and green boxes for the Pacers tonight. As long as this game stays relatively close, the Pacers should be a great team to target.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
David West (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
West is coming off of his best game of the season. Granted, it was against the Sixers, but he finished with 28 points and 9 rebounds en route to a 49 fantasy point outing. He is averaging 29 minutes per game this season, but that number is skewed as he was eased back into the rotation early in the season. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 32 minutes per contest. He is economically priced tonight and he draws a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves, who are ranked 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Watson (FD: $4300, DK: $4800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
Watson has not been very productive recently, but there are some encouraging signs. Most notably is the fact that he has played at least 30 minutes in back to back games. If he sees 30 minutes tonight against the Wolves, he would top my list of players that I expect to exceed value. The Wolves have struggled against point guards this season, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to the position.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -11, 195.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 92.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.45 | Team Pace | 99.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 19 | Opp. Season | 1 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 27 | 6 | 29 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 23 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks are looking for their ninth win in a row tonight, as they head to Philadelphia to take on the hapless Sixers. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 11-point favorites in a game that features a total of 195.5 points. The Sixers play at the fourth-fastest pace of any team in the NBA. They have also allowed their opponents to score an average of 103 points per game. You can make an argument that all five of the Hawks’ starters are in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 7-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 103
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8000, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
David West carved up this Sixers defense the other night and I’m expecting Millsap to do the same tonight. He is coming off of a tough three-game stretch against the Grizzlies, Pistons, and Wizards. His price has come down a little, providing us with a buy-low opportunity. The matchup is as good as you will find. The Sixers are ranked 26th against power forwards and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Jeff Teague (FD: $8300, DK: $8500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Teague has been one of the most productive point guards in the NBA over the last two weeks. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 37 fantasy points seven times. If you look at the DvP rankings on a per-48 minute basis, the Sixers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards this season. There is no reason to think that Teague will slow down in this favorable matchup.
Secondary Plays
Kyle Korver (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Korver is a border-line elite play tonight. He’s listed as a secondary play because it’s hard to list 3-4 elite plays from the same team. Korver checks all the boxes that we are looking for. His price is down, which means he offers great value. He has played well recently, with 20+ fantasy points in five of his last seven games. And finally, he draws a premier matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16)
Carroll is in the exact same boat as Korver. He’s affordable, has been playing well recently, and draws a terrific matchup against the Sixers. It may not be a bad idea to fade the expensive players on the Hawks in lieu of the two cheaper wing players.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are riding their first winning streak of the season. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine them extended their winning streak to three games as they run into the bulldozer that is the Atlanta Hawks. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Hawks had the best defense of any team in the month of December and are currently ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. There is a reason why Vegas has the Sixers projected to score only 92.3 points tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 29-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Covington is the one Sixers player that is on my radar tonight. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 26 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He may not make my cash game lineups, but it’s hard to knock a player that has a high usage rate that is also likely to see 35+ minutes of action.
San Antonio at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -1.5, 195 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Daye-Duncan-Splitter
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| San Antonio | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.44 | Team Pace | 95.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Austin Daye | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 4 | Opp. Season | 18 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 17 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are not playing their best basketball right now. They have won two in a row, but their recent skid has dropped them to seventh place in the Western Conference. A win on the road over the Wizards would be a big win for this team. This game should be come down to the wire, but it’s void of must plays from a fantasy perspective. The Wizards are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of only 97.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 25-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Ginobili is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, after missing the last game due to back spasms. Prior to his injury, he had scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last eight games. With Kawhi Leonard out and Marco Belinelli questionable, Ginobili should play a major role in this game.
Tiago Splitter (FD: $4500, DK: $4200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
The Wizards have one of the best defensive front-courts in the NBA. Why on Earth would you recommend taking a center against them Noto? The answer is simple: VALUE. At his price point, Spliter only needs 21-22 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He is averaging close to one fantasy point per minute this season and is finally starting to see a starter’s complement of minutes.
Washington
The Wizards have been dominant at home with a 16-4 record. They will have their hands full tonight though, as they take on the defending-champion Spurs. While the Spurs do have an elite defense, they play at a relatively quick pace, which offsets the tough matchup a little. The Wizards are projected to score 98.3 points tonight, which is just under their season average of 99.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 23-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
In 20 home games this season, Wall is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists, and 2 steals per game. Not shabby Mr. Wall, not shabby at all. His price has come down across the industry, providing us with an opportunity to buy low on Wall in a favorable matchup. Tony Parker is not an elite defender by any stretch of the imagination and the Spurs have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nene Hilario (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Nene is one of those players that I always seem to be on the wrong side of. Tonight appears to be a decent spot for him though. He is finally seeing more playing time, averaging 27 minutes per game over his last six. Tonight he’ll square off against a Spurs defense, that has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Cleveland at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 211 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Cleveland | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.52 | Team Pace | 99.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 28 | Opp. Season | 6 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 12 | 16 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last nine games. LeBron James has to be shaking his head while watching these ugly outings. His return to the floor may be a little sooner than expected, as he was upgraded to a game-time decision for tonight’s game. Based on the fact that the Cavaliers are only 5-point underdogs tonight, Vegas must be expecting LeBron to play. If he is forced to sit out again, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and J.R. Smith would all see an uptick in his absence.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 22-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 105
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4600, DK: $4900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.3)
All of the hype is surrounding Hassan Whiteside tonight, but Mozgov could end up outscoring him and he’s actually quite a bit cheaper. He was inserted into the starting lineup last game and posted a quality outing with 14 points and 12 rebounds. He may actually benefit from LeBron James being back in the lineup, as he will see a lot of the easy buckets that Anderson Varejao used to. I should also mention that the Suns have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
None – Unless LeBron James sits, then Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and J.R. Smith would all be in play.
Phoenix
The Suns are currently the eighth seed in the West, but the Oklahoma City Thunder will certainly be in the playoff picture here soon. That could leave the Suns as the odd team out this season. Obviously, there is way too much time left to think about playoff positioning, but it’s worth mentioning as every game could prove to be a difference in the Western Conference. The Suns draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Suns are projected to score 108 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 19-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Am I the only one, or has anyone else been on the wrong side of Isaiah Thomas breakouts this season? It seems like he has his best outings when I have Bledsoe in my lineups. I’m not sure what that adds to the column, but sometimes you just have to vent, right? Bledsoe has been terrific over his last nine games, averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. We have to pay a premium for Bledsoe, but this is the matchup to do it in. The Cavaliers have allowed the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Until he can provide us with any semblance of consistency, Morris will remain a secondary option. His last five games are a perfect example of what I am talking about. He has scored 19, 41, 21, 22, and 35 fantasy points. While he has reached value twice, he has also under-performed in three of those outings. I’m a fan of his matchup against Kevin Love, but would rather target David West (for cash games) at the same price point.
Golden State at Utah
- Vegas Line – Golden State -7, 202 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| Golden State | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.78 | Team Pace | 92.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 17 | 24 | 3 | Opp. Season | 22 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 23 | 25 | 16 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 9 | 22 | 24 | 1 | |
Golden State
The Warriors own the NBA’s best record. They are a full three games ahead (in the loss column) of the Blazers and the Hawks. Tonight they head to Utah to take on a short-handed Jazz team. The Jazz are competitive at home though, which is why the Warriors are listed as only 7-point favorites. This will be a pace-down game for the Warriors, but the Jazz are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Andrew Bogut is expected to start tonight, but until he gets back to seeing 25+ minutes per night, we may want to avoid him in daily fantasy.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 13-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27)
Thompson has played well recently, averaging 36 fantasy points per game over his last four outings. His price on FanDuel may take him out of the ‘elite play’ discussion, but he is a border-line elite play on DraftKings. He is a frequent visitor of the three-point bonus and I have a hard time seeing Joe Ingles slowing him down. The Jazz have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to shooting guards over the last seven days (with Ingles in the starting lineup).
Draymond Green (FD: $8300, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17.1)
Green is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He has had a terrific season and is one of the main reasons why the Warriors are playing the way that they are. He can do a little of everything on the floor and consistently fills up the box score. Over his last seven games, he is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game. He is a good contrarian play tonight against a Jazz defense that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards.
Utah
If you look at the defensive efficiency of the Warriors, you would want to avoid the Jazz altogether tonight. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season. Their great defense is offset slightly by their pace of play. The Warriors play at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA, averaging 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes. The Jazz should see at least a few extra possessions tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 29-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Trey Burke (FD: $6000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
With Alec Burks out for the season, Burke is being asked to play all of the minutes that he can handle. Over his last six games, he is averaging 37 minutes per game. He is also averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game during that stretch. I have no problems using Burke in my cash game and tournament lineups tonight. Stephen Curry has improved defensively, but is still an easy target to take players against in daily fantasy basketball.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $6200, DK: $6100 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13)
Gobert is an intriguing tournament play tonight. There are quite a few value plays at center tonight and Gobert will likely go overlooked. He has shown his upside, with at least 34 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He’s expected to return to the bench tonight, but could still see big minutes with Trevor Booker being doubtful and Derrick Favors being banged up.
Elijah Millsap (FD: $3500, DK: $3400 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 17.5)
As a Jazz fan, I love seeing Paul’s little brother on the team. Much like Paul, Elijah has not been phased by the NBA one bit. He has quickly established himself as a part of the rotation. He has averaged 29 minutes per game over his last two and offers good value at minimum salary.