NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 13th - Page Two
Dallas at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 212 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Dallas | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.25 | Team Proj. | 103.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.06 | Team Pace | 96.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 25 | 9 | 29 | 9 | Opp. Season | 29 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 25 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks are looking to end their two-game slide tonight as they visit Sacramento and the Kings. Vegas is expecting this one to be a close, high-scoring game. That’s a recipe that I go back to time and time again in daily fantasy basketball. The Kings are ranked 25th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing their opponents to score an average of 103.7 points per game. This feels like a Rajon Rondo type of game, but I have a hard time targeting him with his recent level of play.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 16-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Ellis may not have as high of a ceiling with Rondo in Dallas, but he still has a very high floor. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. Even when he’s not reaching value, he’s not killing any of your lineups. Tonight he squares off against a Kings defense that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.9)
The masses will likely flock to Markieff Morris over Dirk Nowitzki tonight, but for my money, I’ll target the much more consistent option. Nowtizki has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. He has also scored at least 29 in four of his last five. He draws a premier matchup against Jason Thompson and the Kings, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento
The Kings are also in a fantasy-friendly matchup tonight. The Mavericks are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 102.5 points per game. The Kings do have a history of letdown performances in favorable matchups, but don’t let that scare you off of them tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 26-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11300, DK: $11000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Cousins is my favorite tournament play on the board tonight. The wealth of value options at center and a matchup against Tyson Chandler is going to lead to a low percentage of ownership for Cousins. While Chandler is an elite defender, Cousins is as matchup-proof as they come. The only player that can stop Cousins is himself. He has posted back-to-back 60 fantasy point outings and is one of the top overall plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $7200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
The price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for Collison, but a favorable matchup puts him in play tonight. Rajon Rondo admitted that he hadn’t played defense in years and judging by his recent play, it doesn’t appear that he’s going to start now. The Mavericks have allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards this season. Collison is a low-risk fantasy option for cash games tonight.
Miami at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – Pick ‘Em, 197.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
| Miami | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.57 | Team Pace | 97.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 24 | Opp. Season | 8 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | |
Miami
Let the Hassan Whiteside hype begin! After putting up 50 fantasy points against the Clippers, you are going to hear and see his name a ton throughout the industry today. We’ll get to my thoughts on him in a bit though. Tonight the Heat travel to Los Angeles to take on the reeling Lakers. Vegas is expecting this to be a close game and the Heat are projected to score nearly five points more than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $5200, DK: $5700 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
The only thing holding Whiteside back from being 80% owned tonight is his price tag. Luckily, both FanDuel and DraftKings have raised his price over $5,000. Whiteside is not going to start the first half, but will draw the start in the second half. He should see 25-30 minutes against a Lakers defense that cannot defend the paint. Whiteside is averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. If he can keep that production up with his 25-30 minutes tonight, well, I’ll let you do the math.
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8800, DK: $8800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.5)
I have Wade listed as a secondary play tonight for two reasons. One, the Lakers have surprisingly been fairly stingy against shooting guards this season. And two, I have Eric Bledsoe ranked ahead of Wade and they are both at a similar price point. That said, Wade is still worth a look against a Lakers defense, that is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency this season.
Chris Bosh (FD: $8400, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.6)
Bosh is coming off of his best game in the last month. He scored 34 points and grabbed 7 rebounds against the Clippers. He should find success against the Lakers, who have struggled against power forwards and centers this season. Bosh’s inability to pound the glass does hurt his fantasy appeal a little though, which is why he’s listed as a secondary play tonight.
L.A. Lakers
It’s never good when you have to really search for a viable fantasy option on a team. Once again, we don’t know if Kobe Bryant is going to play tonight. If he does sit, Wayne Ellington and Wesley Johnson would both make interesting value plays. Other than that, I will be avoiding the Lakers altogether. The Heat are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and there aren’t any fantasy options that really stand out in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 16-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 98
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None