NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 7th - Page 2
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Phoenix at Chicago
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah
Phoenix
The Suns are 1 point favorites in tonight’s game against the Bulls who will be without both Luol Deng (trade) and Carlos Boozer (injury). This game is expected to be fairly low scoring and there aren’t many options that really stand out to me on the Suns. Eric Bledsoe will miss tonight’s game once again so give a slight fantasy boost to Goran Dragic. He’s really the only Suns player that is in play tonight.
Chicago
The Bulls on the other hand have quite a few viable fantasy options. With Luol Deng traded to Cleveland, that opens up big minutes for Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, and Tony Snell. Not only that, but with Carlos Boozer ruled out of tonight’s game, that opens up big minutes for both Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah. This is one of those rare games where I wouldn’t hesitate to take 2-3 Bulls players.
- Taj Gibson – Gibson is my top value play of the night and will likely be on all of my rosters across the industry. He has proven time and time again that he can post great numbers when he is given big minutes and with Boozer out, Gibson should see 35+ minutes tonight.
- Jimmy Butler – Butler is probably the biggest beneficiary of the Deng trade. While he started alongside Deng, the minutes that Deng took up will likely slid to Butler. Don’t be surprised to see him average over 35 minutes going forward. Now is the time to buy low on Butler.
San Antonio at Memphis
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
San Antonio
The Spurs and Grizzlies are two tough defensive teams, but the total in this game is pretty high so Vegas expects this one to be a bit more fast-paced than usual. That said, the Spurs just don’t have any consistent fantasy players. Whether it’s inconsistent minutes (Leonard, Duncan, Green) or inconsistent play (Parker, Belinelli), I am just going to avoid them tonight. I can find better options at every position.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are facing a Spurs defense that ranks in the top 10 against every position on the floor except for PG. That leaves Mike Conley as the only Grizzlies player with a favorable matchup. However, Conley has scored under 30 FP’s in 6 of his last 8 games which is not a great stat to see. With tough matchups for both teams, this game is an easy fade.
Golden State at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Golden State -8.5, 199 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Ridnour-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Sanders
Golden State
The Warriors are big favorites tonight against the Bucks. The total of this game is set at 199 points which is awfully low for a Warriors game. Even though the Warriors are a fast-paced team, their fantasy value depends more on the pace of their opponent and the Bucks are only averaging 94 possessions per game. What that means is less possessions for the Warriors than they are used to.
Stephen Curry is always in play thanks to his high ceiling, but I think he is overpriced for his matchup and the potential blowout. I feel the same way about David Lee. His price has really gone up over the last couple of weeks.
- Andrew Bogut – Bogut is the one Warriors’ player that I will be targeting tonight. The Bucks rank dead last in the league at defending Centers this season. Bogut has really played well when given the minutes and the matchup lines up well for him tonight.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are facing a fast-paced Warriors team, but the problem is that the fast play hasn’t necessarily translated to fantasy points for the Warriors opponents. The Warriors rank in the top 12 against every position except for PG. That’s very impressive considering the fact that the Warriors are averaging over 99 possessions per game.
The Bucks will be without John Henson again tonight. Even though the matchup isn’t great for Larry Sanders, I think he will play well here. He gets most of his fantasy points off of dunks and on the defensive end. Brandon Knight is also in play tonight, Curry has not been a great defender and Knight has really played well for the Bucks.
L.A.Lakers at Dallas
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Young-Williams-Gasol
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers missed out on the Andrew Bynum trade, but something tells me that they aren’t too sad. Tonight’s game against the Mavericks is expected to be very high scoring, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Lakers have not been a good road team this season and the Mavericks are currently 9.5 point favorites.
The Mavs haven’t been great defensively this season. All of their season long DvP rankings range from 9th to 25th. I expect Kendall Marshall to continue to play well in this offense, but now that his price has gone way up, it’s going to be a lot harder to pull the trigger on him. Jodie Meeks continues to make a strong play at the SG position, he should see 35+ minutes again tonight.
- Pau Gasol – Pau has been playing great basketball with Marshall at the point. Add in the fact that the Mavericks are currently ranked 25th against Centers and Pau looks like a nice play tonight. Pau has attempted 23, 17, and 22 shots in his last 3 games which is very promising.
Dallas
The Mavericks are in a great spot tonight, but it does come with an asterisk. The Lakers could easily get down early and throw in the towel. That said, if you think this game can stay close, there are quite a few favorable matchups for the Mavs. The Lakers rank in the bottom 3 against every position except for SF. I like the Jose Calderon play at the point, I like Shawn Marion value if you want to save at the SF position, and Dirk Nowitzki price has come down to a playable level.
- Monta Ellis – Monta has played great basketball at home this season averaging over 30 FP’s per game. He should have his way with this Lakers defense and I’m expecting him to make a lot of plays in transition. If you are spending on a Mavs player tonight, Ellis is the way to go.
Boston at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -7.5, 199 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Boston
The Celtics are 7.5 point underdogs against the Nuggets tonight and have lost 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve managed to keep games competitive this season, but I’m not crazy about any of their options in this one. I don’t mind the Jared Sullinger play, but for the most part, this game doesn’t stick out to me as one that you should be targeting tonight.
Denver
The Nuggets are facing a slow paced Celtics team that has been pretty solid defensively except down low. J.J. Hickson, Kenneth Faried, and Timofey Mozgov are all fighting for minutes which makes it tough to predict which one is going to have a productive fantasy night. There are 11 other games on the schedule and I will likely be avoiding this game for the most part.