NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-18 17:17:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Miami at Cleveland

• Vegas Line – Miami -9, 196.5 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Jack-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

Miami

The Heat travel to Cleveland to take on the Irving-less Cavs tonight. While Irving’s injury would typically be the biggest story in a game like this, most people are talking about LeBron’s return to Cleveland. It’s funny how the fans in Cleveland have done a complete 180 in terms of how they have treated LeBron since the first year that he left. LeBron should see an extremely warm welcome tonight and don’t be surprised to hear more cheers when LeBron scores than when the Cavs score.

Even without Kyrie in the lineup, the line for this game is only 9 points and hopefully the Cavs can keep this game close enough that the starters will see their full allotment of minutes. The Cavs are ranked 11th and 9th against Centers which is decent, but are ranked 16th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s. Dwyane Wade has really been playing some great basketball lately, but I have a feeling that he will take a backseat in this one and enjoy the LeBron show.

• LeBron James – This game should be all about LeBron and I have a feeling that his teammates will step aside and let LeBron do his thing tonight much like they did when he exploded for 61 points against the Bobcats. In 12 career games against the Cavs, LeBron is averaging 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. That’s not bad for a day’s work. He should reach those numbers tonight with the potential for much more.

Cleveland

The Cavs will be without Kyrie Irving for at least the next couple of weeks and possibly the rest of the season if it takes longer to heal than the original timeline. Jarrett Jack will slide over and start at PG and Dion Waiters will get the nod at SG. Kyrie’s absence gives both Jack and Waiters a huge fantasy boost and even though their matchup against the Heat is a tough one, their expected increase in production makes them both solid punt options tonight.

The rest of the Cavs’ players can likely be ignored tonight. The Heat have struggled to defend Centers this season, but Spencer Hawes has Anderson Varejao breathing down his neck which is never great for fantasy value. Luol Deng, Matthew Dellavedova, and C.J. Miles are all questionable tonight, which could mean ever bigger roles for Jack and Waiters. They are the two recommended plays in this one.

Toronto at Atlanta

• Vegas Line – Toronto -2.5, 202 Over/Under
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic

Toronto

Kyle Lowry took a knee to the head on Sunday, but he did not suffer a concussion and it sounds like he will be out there again tonight. Lowry has rarely missed games this season despite dealing with numerous nagging injuries. The Raptors have a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks who are giving up 102.1 points per game this season and play at an above average pace.

The Hawks have really slipped in the DvP rankings over the last month or so and are now below average defensively against all five positions on the floor. Kyle Lowry nagging injuries concern me a bit, but the matchup is there and he continues to post monster stat lines. He should continue to be targeted tonight against the Hawks.

• DeMar DeRozan – This may come as a bit of a surprise, but DeRozan actually has a higher usage rate than Lowry. DeRozan’s 26.5% usage rate is ranked 15th in the NBA. This is a terrific matchup for him. The Hawks like to push the pace and DeRozan should take advantage of their subpar defense. His price is down across the industry and he should be targeted in all league tonight.

• Amir Johnson – Johnson has been one of the most consistent fantasy players in the league over the past few weeks. He has topped 20 FP’s in 13 straight games and has topped 25 FP’s in 7 of those games. He has a nice matchup against the Hawks who are ranked 24th against PF’s this season. Keep using him as long as Patterson is still out.

Atlanta

The Hawks have won 4 straight games after dropping their previous 6. The Hawks are desperately trying to hold off the Knicks in the race for the last playoff spot in the East. A win against the Raptors would go a long way in helping accomplish that goal. As far as the matchup goes, this doesn’t look like a great team to target for daily fantasy purposes. The Raptors own a top 5 defense and are ranked 10th or better against all five positions on the floor.

Paul Millsap has a very tough matchup against Johnson, Jeff Teague has to deal with Lowry who has been shutting down opposing PG’s all season, and Kyle Korver may not get much room to shoot tonight. I do like DeMarre Carroll price on DK though, he is close to a must play at that price. Pero Antic also makes a decent punt play at Center, he has averaged over 20 FP’s per game since being re-inserted into the starting lineup.

Milwaukee at Portland

• Vegas Line – Portland -12, 208 Over/Under
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Batum-Lopez

Milwaukee

The Bucks travel to Portland to take on the Blazers who will be missing LaMarcus Aldridge once again. His absence really improves the chances of the Bucks keeping this game competitive. There are a lot of Bucks’ players that have cheap price tags and this may not be a terrible night to put a few of them in your lineup. The Blazers are giving up an average of 103.1 points per game this season which is the 6th most in the NBA.

To me, the Bucks are all about value tonight. Khris Middleton price has come way down after posting back to back outings with less than 10 FP’s. He is still seeing 30+ minutes per game and this is a great time to buy low on him. Ersan Ilyasova is also cheap on most sites and he won’t have to deal with Aldridge. He has a nice matchup against Dorell Wright. Finally, Nate Wolters and Ramon Sessions are both seeing 25-30 minutes per game and are both close to minimum salary across the industry. If the Bucks can keep it close, there is a lot of value to be had here.

• Brandon Knight – Knight is basically the only Bucks’ player that you have to pay up for and he has a terrific matchup against Lillard and the Blazers who have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. Knight has the highest usage rate on the Bucks at 26.4% and is coming off of a 45 FP game against the Bobcats.

Portland

The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight which means another start for Dorell Wright at PF. He is one of the best value plays on the board tonight and should be targeted on all sites with the exception of DS. His price has caught up to his recent level of production. This is a great matchup for the Blazers. The Bucks are ranked 19th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers and are the 5th worst rebounding team in the league in terms of total rebounding percentage (only 48.3%).

Nicolas Batum has seen a major spike in production with Aldridge out of the lineup. His price has gone up on a few sites and has stayed pat on other sites. Target him on sites that have yet to adjust his price upwards. Wesley Matthews makes a nice option at SG tonight. He should have a nice height advantage over Wolters and should be able to post him up and score easily.

• Damian Lillard – Even though Lillard has the toughest matchup of the Blazers’ starters, his usage rate goes way up with Aldridge out of the lineup. Lillard becomes their #1 option offensively and I think Lillard will be the highest scoring player in this game in both actual points and fantasy points.

• Robin Lopez – Lopez is one of my favorite plays across the industry tonight. If you are playing cash games on FD or DK, lock Lopez in at the Center slot and move on to the other positions. The Bucks do not defend the paint well and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Lopez should be a lock for 30+ FP’s tonight.

Washington at Sacramento

• Vegas Line – Washington -1, 202 Over/Under
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins

Washington

The Wizards and Kings game should be a great game to both watch and to target in DFS. The total is set at 202 points and the Wizards are only favored by 1 point so this game should be close throughout. The Kings are giving up 103.5 points per game this season which is the 5th most in the NBA. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Kings are ranked 16th or worse against all five positions on the floor.

The Kings have actually been fairly stingy against PG’s recently though. A few weeks ago, the Kings were one of the worst teams against PG’s and are now ranked 16th against the position and are ranked 4th against the position over the last 15 days. That coupled with John Wall splits on the road make me question him a bit tonight. I still think he is in play, but there are better options if you are paying up for a star player. Marcin Gortat will have his hands full with Cousins tonight, but he has been extremely consistent and is a safe cash game play tonight.

• Trevor Ariza – In terms of ability to reach and exceed value, Ariza is one of the top players in the NBA. The problem is that he can also have a very low floor. In his last 5 games, he has scored 37, 12, 9, 41, and 18 fantasy points. The upside is there though and I love the matchup against Gay and the Kings who are ranked 25th against SF’s this season. I think he will have more of a boom than a bust type of night.

• Bradley Beal – Beal is either an incredibly quick healer or a great actor. After being carried off the floor by his teammates, he was back in the lineup the very next night and ended up playing 37 minutes. There is a lot to like about Beal tonight. His minutes are always in that 36-40 range, he has a great matchup against McLemore, and he’s a nice fit at SG which can be a tough position to fill on most nights.

Sacramento

The Kings are facing a Wizards team that has actually been pretty solid defensively this season. The Wizards are holding their opponents to under 100 points per game and are ranked 8th or better against SG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. I like Isaiah Thomas in this one, but he always seems to fall just short of reaching value. He’s basically going to give you just over 30 FP’s per game.

DeMarcus Cousins should be back in the lineup tonight after getting Sunday’s game off to rest. I’m not scared of taking Cousins in tough matchups because his biggest weakness is himself. When he is locked in and doesn’t commit stupid fouls and doesn’t overreact every time he hears the whistle blow, he’s a threat to top 50 FP’s. I think Lopez is the way to go at Center for cash games, but Cousins makes a nice upside play in GPP’s.

• Rudy Gay – Gay is another player to be plagued with inconsistency all season long. He has been very boom or bust, especially in the last few weeks. He has a nice matchup against the Wizards though and his price is very affordable across the industry. He’s my favorite option of the Kings’ big 3.

Orlando at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -13, 203 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Orlando

The Magic are the NBA’s worst road team (4-30) and have to take on one of the better home teams in the league in the Warriors (21-11). This game has greatest chance of all of tonight’s games to turn into a blowout. The Warriors own a top 10 defense this season and are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor. With all of the Magic players healthy, their minute distribution isn’t what we like to see from a fantasy standpoint. I don’t mind Maurice Harkless as a punt play at SF, but I will be avoiding the rest of the Magic players tonight.

Golden State

The Warriors have a nice soft spot in the schedule. They face the Magic at home tonight and then get to play the Bucks at home on Thursday. The Magic have really struggled defensively this season and are ranked 15th or worse against all five positions on the floor. While this is a solid matchup, the potential blowout does concern me and none of the Warriors’ players really stand out in this one. David Lee offers the most bang for your buck, but he’s been playing limited minutes in blowouts since coming back from his injury.