NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 24th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Toronto at Detroit – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 201 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
| Toronto | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.90 | Team Pace | 95.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 15 | 16 | 29 | 29 | Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 29 | 9 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 1 | 21 | 20 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 28 | 9 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have lost six of their last ten games and are now in danger of losing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They head to Detroit tonight to take on the Pistons in a game that features a total of 201 points. This is a mediocre matchup for potential fantasy production, as the Pistons are ranked 15th in points allowed and 10th in rebounding differential this season. The Raptors are projected to score 101.5 points tonight, which is just below their average on the season. Kyle Lowry was able to go through practice on Monday, but he remains questionable with a back injury.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 26-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
DeRozan is in play regardless of Lowry’s status, but he would obviously see a hefty boost in usage if Lowry is unable to suit up. DeRozan is playing some of his best basketball of the season. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 35.3 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he topped the 29 fantasy point mark in all nine games. He should continue his strong play against a Pistons’ defense that has been average against shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Lou Williams (FD: $4700, DK: $4600) and Greivis Vasquez (FD: $3900, DK: $4300) would both become viable options tonight if Kyle Lowry is unable to suit up.
Detroit
The Pistons are looking for a third win in a row, but in terms of the playoff race, it is too little too late. They are five full games behind the Celtics for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Pistons draw a fantasy-friendly matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season. Greg Monroe is questionable for tonight’s game, after missing the last two with a knee injury.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 42-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $7600, DK: $7500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
It took a few weeks, but Jackson finally looks comfortable as the Pistons’ starting point guard. He has played well over his last four games, averaging 44 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. His usage rate is a little higher with Greg Monroe out and his shot is finally starting to fall. He remains an elite play tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9000, DK: $8400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
This pick hinges on the availability of Greg Monroe. If Monroe is unable to suit up, fire up Drummond as a top tournament play at center. He has been terrific over his last four games, averaging 41 fantasy points per contest. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he could have another monster game on the glass, as the Raptors do not rebound well.
Caron Butler (FD: $3500, DK: $3200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Butler is a serviceable value play tonight against the Raptors. He is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has averaged 21 fantasy points per game in his last two starts with Greg Monroe out of the lineup.
Miami at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -1.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Miami | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.07 | Team Pace | 96.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 14 | 25 | 14 | 19 | Opp. Season | 13 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 20 | 28 | 13 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 6 | |
Miami
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are poised to make a playoff run. It would be terrific television if they end up in the seventh seed and have to face the Cavaliers in the first round. Tonight the Heat head to Milwaukee to take on a defensive-minded Bucks’ squad. The Heat are listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a relatively low total of 193.5 points. Despite their solid play on the defensive end of the floor, the Bucks have only contained one position (point guard) well this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 34-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7900, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.4)
Wade has scored under 30 fantasy points in each of his previous two games. We shouldn’t be alarmed though, as he had topped the 33 fantasy point mark in each of his previous seven. Wade has one of the highest usage rates in the entire NBA and the Heat are basically in must-win mode for the rest of the season. Wade should continue to be viewed as an elite play at shooting guard, especially tonight, given the lack of options at the position.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Whiteside is a tough player to target in cash games because he is extremely hit or miss. While he does have a very high ceiling, he also has a very low floor. He is an appealing tournament option tonight against the Bucks though. Milwaukee is ranked 19th against centers and 20th in rebounding differential this season.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost six games in a row and their lead over the Heat for the sixth-seed in the Eastern Conference is shrinking. If the Bucks lose tonight, their lead would be down to a half-game. In terms of their fantasy matchup, this is not the most appealing one on the board. While the Heat have played at a quicker pace since acquiring Goran Dragic, they are still one of the slowest-paced teams over the course of the season. They have also held their opponents to the third-fewest points per game this season. As you can see from the table above, the Heat are ranked seventh or better against SGs, SFs, PFs, and centers.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 32-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.1)
MCW is the one Bucks’ player that draws a decent matchup against the Heat tonight. Miami is ranked 13th against point guards on the season and 20th against point guards over the last seven days. MCW has scored at least 32 fantasy points in back-to-back games and he has the unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. MCW is certainly worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $6,800.
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5600, DK: $5900 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Ilyasova is playing his best basketball of the season and his price has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production. Over his last six games, he has averaged 29.4 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has topped at least 20 fantasy points in all six games. He does draw a tough matchup against Udonis Haslem and the Heat, but he provides good upside at this price point.
L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -10.5, 209 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Clarkson-Johnson-Kelly-Black
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
| L.A. Lakers | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 98.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Jordan Clarkson | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 4 | Opp. Season | 30 | 25 | 20 | 13 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 19 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 20 | 15 | 2 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are changing their starting lineup for tonight’s game against the Thunder. Jeremy Lin and Ryan Kelly will both start, sending Wayne Ellington and Jordan Hill to the bench. The Lakers draw a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who are one of the fastest-paced team in the NBA this season. The total for tonight’s game is set at 209 points, which is the highest total on the board tonight. The biggest question here is whether or not the Lakers will be able to keep this game within striking distance.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 40-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Jeremy Lin (FD: $5500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21)
HALLELUJAH! Lin is finally back in the starting lineup. He has been terrific off the bench over the last ten games, averaging 27 fantasy points in 25 minutes per contest. He should log at least 30 minutes tonight, which makes him an elite play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In addition to a boost in minutes, Lin also draws a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 25th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $5700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Even though Jeremy Lin will enter the starting lineup, Clarkson will start alongside him. He will lose some of his ball-handling duties, but at least he won’t have to compete with Lin for minutes anymore. Clarkson has scored at least 25 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and is a decent contrarian play tonight in tournaments.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games and now have a two and a half game lead over the Pelicans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They will look to extend that lead tonight against the Lakers at home. The Thunder are 10.5 point favorites in this game with their team total set at 110 points. Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant have both been ruled out tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 18-50
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13300, DK: $13200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)
All aboard the Russell Westbrook triple-double train. While the NBA took away one of his rebounds against the Heat, don’t be surprised to see Westbrook post another triple-double tonight. He draws the best matchup on the board, as the Lakers are ranked dead last against point guards this season. While Westbrook’s price is getting a little silly at this point, he has still been able to reach value. He is an extremely risky fade in cash games tonight.
Enes Kanter (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
The Underkanter has been terrific with Serge Ibaka out of the lineup. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 21 points and 12 rebounds per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 35 fantasy point mark six times. Kanter’s price has come up across the industry, but it has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production. Tonight may be our last opportunity to target him at this price point.
Secondary Plays
Steven Adams (FD: $5500, DK: $5900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Adams has flown under the radar thanks to the play of Enes Kanter. That said, he has been playing some great basketball himself. Over his last five games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th against centers this season.
Dion Waiters (FD: $4600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Waiters has been hit or miss the entire season. It just so happens that I’ve been on the miss side of Waiters every time I roster him. The good news for everyone is that I will take one for the team and avoid Waiters tonight. Feel free to target him in all league formats. Waiters draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers and he has topped 21 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
San Antonio at Dallas – 8:300 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 206 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| San Antonio | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.93 | Team Pace | 96.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 15 | Opp. Season | 17 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 16 | 15 | 24 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 12 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs have slowly crept up the Western Conference standings over the last month of play. They are now only a half-game behind the Blazers for the fourth-seed in the West. The Spurs will look to make a push for home-court advantage and I expect them to rest their players very little down the stretch of the regular season. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that has a total of 206 points. The Mavericks present a favorable matchup, as they are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 44-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Even though his price is at an all-time high, Leonard is still an elite play. Not only has he been on a tear recently, but he fills a position that typically lacks options. Over his last ten games, Leonard has averaged 39 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He has an extremely high floor thanks to his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he could push for 35+ minutes in what is expected to be a close game against the Mavericks.
Tim Duncan (FD: $7700, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Dollar for dollar, Duncan is my favorite play at power forward tonight. There is always the concern that his minutes will be limited, but the Spurs need a win here and the low spread suggests a close game throughout. Duncan is coming off of a terrific seven-game stretch, where he has averaged 37 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest.
Secondary Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $6000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Point guard is always a stacked position, which typically leaves us with a few options that go overlooked each night. Parker is one of those options tonight. His price is reasonable, he has been playing well recently, and he draws a terrific matchup against the Mavericks. On the season, Dallas is ranked 23rd against point guards.
Dallas
The Mavericks have lost five of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to the seventh-seed in the Western Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked in the top 11 in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Mavericks are a tough team to predict each night and with their tough matchup against the Spurs, I’ll be avoiding them altogether.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 44-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Philadelphia at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -8, 207.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Covington-Sampson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Gay-Cousins
| Philadelphia | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.28 | Team Pace | 97.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Robert Covington | Jakarr Sampson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 27 | Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 15 | 25 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 17 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have actually played pretty well by their standards. They have won four of their last ten games and they’ve stayed competitive in most of their losses. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on a Kings’ team that has all but given up defensively. The Kings are ranked 29th in points allowed this season, giving up an average 105.1 points per game. The Sixers are projected to score 100 points, which is NINE points higher than their average on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 24-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Noel’s price continues to rise, but I don’t mind paying a premium for him in a matchup against the Kings. While the Kings do rebound the ball well, they are ranked 27th against centers this season. Noel will have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins down low, but Henry Sims and Thomas Robinson will likely spend some time on him as well. Over his last ten games, Noel has averaged 36 fantasy points per contest, including a 39 fantasy point outing against this same Kings’ team.
Secondary Plays
Ish Smith (FD: $5600, DK: $5900 / MPG: 11 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Ish has one of the best names in basketball. He’s also fun to watch, as he is incredibly quick and has a few of those wow moments each game. He has played well over his last seven games, averaging 28 fantasy points per contest. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his playing time. He has played less than 30 minutes in each of his last six games.
Sacramento
The Kings draw a favorable matchup against the visiting Sixers. The Kings are listed as 8-point favorites in a game that has a very high total of 207.5 points. This is a favorable matchup to target for fantasy production, as the Sixers are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential this season. The Kings’ team total of 108 points is one of the highest on the board tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 17-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10700, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
It’s rare that we have three elite plays from the Kings, but that’s the case tonight, as they square off against the Sixers. Cousins has as much upside as any player not-named Russell Westbrook tonight. Cousins put up a ridiculous stat line of 39 points and 24 rebounds the last time these two teams faced each other. He should have another big outing tonight, as the Sixers are ranked dead last against centers. They have no one that can keep him out of the paint.
Rudy Gay (FD: $8600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Gay is priced well on FanDuel ($8,600), but he’s too cheap on DraftKings ($7,700). He has played well over his last eight games, averaging 41 fantasy points per contest. The best part is that he has played an average of 38.5 minutes per game during that stretch. It’s hard to envision a bad outing from Gay tonight, as the Sixers are ranked 25th against power forwards this season.
Omri Casspi (FD: $3900, DK: $3600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18)
Casspi is one of the top value plays on the board tonight. He has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last four games and should draw another start at small forward tonight. He only needs to score around 18 fantasy points to reach value tonight, something that he should be able to accomplish with ease against the Sixers.
Secondary Plays
None