NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Boston at Cleveland – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -11, 208.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Boston | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.81 | Team Pace | 94.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 24 | 23 | 15 | 14 | Opp. Season | 20 | 2 | 25 | 26 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 15 | 26 | 14 | 24 | |
Boston
The Celtics are playing some inspired basketball right now. Even though they fell short against the Warriors, they were still up by 26 at one point in the first half. After facing one of the best teams in the NBA, they turn around and have to face another one tonight in the Cavaliers. The Celtics are 11-point underdogs tonight against a Cavaliers’ defense that has really played well over the last month of play. Even though the Celtics are sizable underdogs, there are a few fantasy options in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 37-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $6100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Turner has been tremendous recently, averaging 30 fantasy points over his last seven games. His minutes are trending upward and his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet give him both a high floor and a high ceiling. It will be interesting to see how the Celtics match up with the Cavaliers, as Avery Bradley is their best defender. If Bradley defends LeBron James, Turner will then be matched up against J.R. Smith, which is a much better matchup.
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas (FD: $6900, DK: $6200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Coach Brad Stevens does not plan to use Thomas in the starting lineup anytime soon, but he is still see close to starter’s minutes off the bench. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest. His price may be a little too high to use in cash games, but he makes an intriguing upside play in tournaments.
Avery Bradley (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Bradley has been on a tear over his last six games, averaging 32 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production, which gives us another opportunity to buy low on Bradley. The one concern that I have is potential foul trouble, as he will likely be matched up against LeBron James for some, or all, of tonight’s game.
Jae Crowder (FD: $4800, DK: $4900 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
Crowder is another Celtics’ player that has been filling up the stat sheet recently. Even though he doesn’t start, he is being asked to log heavy minutes. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last five games, averaging 30 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He should continue his solid play against a very beatable Cavaliers’ frontcourt.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers lost a tough overtime game to the Rockets on Sunday, after LeBron James missed two free throws that could have put the Cavaliers up by one with only seconds to play. They will look to bounce back tonight against a Celtics’ team that has allowed the sixth-most points per game to their opponents this season. This is a very favorable matchup, but there is the risk of this game turning into a blowout. The Cavaliers play again tomorrow night, so if this game gets out of hand early, the starters will likely see limited minutes.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 23-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11200, DK: $10400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 33.4)
This isn’t a night where you absolutely have to have LeBron James in your lineup. His price has come up (especially on FanDuel) and this game has the potential to turn into a rout. James is coming off of back-to-back 60+ fantasy point outings though and could be in for another huge performance if the Celtics are able to keep this game within striking distance.
L.A. Lakers at Charlotte – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -8, 193 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Boozer-Sacre
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| L.A. Lakers | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.79 | Team Pace | 95.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Carlos Boozer | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 5 | Opp. Season | 30 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 28 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games, as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets tonight. The Lakers are listed as 8-point underdogs against a slow-paced Hornets’ team. On the season, the Hornets have played at the sixth-slowest pace. They have also held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game. The bad matchup combined with the fact that the Lakers have a deep and inconsistent rotation and we have ourselves the perfect recipe for avoidance.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 24-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wayne Ellington (FD: $5500, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Ellington is a serviceable value play at shooting guard tonight on DraftKings. At a price of only $4,700, he needs roughly 24 fantasy points to reach value, a feat that he has accomplished four times in his last six games. Ellington has also played at least 35 minutes in each of his last three games.
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $5300, DK: $4700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
It appears that Clarkson had a fire lit under him after coach Byron Scott said that he was thinking about starting Jeremy Lin. Over his last three games, Clarkson has averaged 27 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He’s not a recommended cash game option, but he’s worth a look as a tournament play.
Charlotte
The Hornets are only one game out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. If they can pick up a win tonight, they would be right in the hunt with the Heat, the Nets, and the Pacers for the last two spots in the playoffs. The Hornets have a great chance to pick up a win against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. The Hornets are 8-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 100 points. To give you an idea of how good the matchup really is, the Hornets average points per game this season is only 94.4.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 16-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $6600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Williams has been on fire since joining the Hornets. In his first five games with the team, he is averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. His usage in the offense has been high, as has his number of minutes per game. His price has come up across the industry, but he’s still an elite play at this price point. He draws a premier matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing points guards than any other team in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Jefferson is a borderline elite play tonight against the Lakers. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 35 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Lakers’ team that is ranked 20th in rebounding differential. Jefferson needs around 40 fantasy points to meet value expectations. I have him pegged for right around 35 tonight.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD: $6000, DK: $6100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
MKG’s price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him, but if there were ever a time to do it, this would be it. Over his last three games, MKG is averaging 32 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. He could have a monster fantasy outing against the Lakers, who as mentioned above, have the worst defense in the entire NBA.
Sacramento at New York – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -4, 201 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Hardaway-Early-Amundson-Bargnani
| Sacramento | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.59 | Team Pace | 93.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Cleanthony Early | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 22 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
Sacramento
The big question surrounding the Kings is the availability of DeMarcus Cousins. The latest update from the Kings is that Cousins will attempt to play tonight, as they have him listed as probable. The line has already moved with this news, as the Kings are now 4-point favorites tonight against a Knicks. This is a favorable matchup as a whole, as the Knicks are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential. This should be a close, high-scoring game between two subpar teams.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 12-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10900, DK: $9800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 34)
In the past, Cousins’ minutes have not been limited in his first game back from injury. We will see if that’s the case tonight against the Knicks. Even if he only plays 30 minutes, he is still an elite play against the makeshift frontcourt of the Knicks. Cousins has 50+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor. With the limited options at center tonight, Cousins is a strong play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $7600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Even though DeMarcus Cousins is expected to play tonight, Gay is still in play at his price point. His price is still under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, even though he has scored at least 39 fantasy points in three of his last seven games. Gay should still have a very high usage in the Kings’ offense tonight and I have no qualms targeting him against the Knicks.
New York
The Knicks are a mess right now, but at least they have Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani has taken the DFS world by storm and he has led the Knicks to back-to-back wins. The Knicks have a decent shot of extending their winning streak tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game this season. There should be very little defense played tonight, as both teams are ranked in the bottom ten defensively.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 20-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $4600, DK: $4500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
If you missed it, check out this Bargnani Tweet by our own SBK. He summed it up beautifully, the Bargnani bandwagon is in overdrive as everyone seems to be jumping on. He has scored 29, 49, and 21 fantasy points over his last three games. His price is still at a very playable level across the industry and he should be in line for 30+ minutes tonight against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $5400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
With Jose Calderon out for the next couple of weeks, Galloway will continue to man the point. He has played well recently, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He also draws a very favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Houston at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -9, 199.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Ariza-Smith-Jones-Motiejunas
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Houston | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.02 | Team Pace | 96.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 7 | Opp. Season | 2 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 20 | 20 | |
Houston
The Rockets will be without James Harden tonight, as he was suspended one game for kicking Lebron James in the nether region. His absence opens the door for the rest of the team. They will have to make up for so much lost production, that there are six viable fantasy options on the Rockets tonight. Ignore the tough matchup against the Hawks, and instead focus on the increased role for the rest of the team.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 47-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Terrence Jones (FD: $6500, DK: $7000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.9)
Jones has been on a roll over his last six games, averaging 33 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He should see an increased usage in the Rockets’ offense tonight and he’ll likely be asked to log heavy minutes if the Rockets are able to keep this game close. James Harden doesn’t sit out many games during the season, so take advantage of it while you can.
Josh Smith (FD: $6300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
A revenge game where Smith will likely draw the start and be asked to carry the load offensively? Sign me up! Even if Smith doesn’t start, he will log 30+ minutes tonight against his former team in his former team’s hometown. Smith has an extremely high ceiling tonight and you don’t want to be the guy that misses out. He’s a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Ariza is one of those players that has burned so many people in the past, that he often gets overlooked in daily fantasy. If you’ve ever read my Grind Down, then you know that Ariza is always on my radar. He has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games, averaging 28 fantasy points during that stretch. He also sees a boost with James Harden out tonight.
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5200, DK: $4900), Patrick Beverley (FD: $4800, DK: $4500), and Corey Brewer (FD: $4200, DK: $4000) are all viable fantasy options as well. All three are better suited for tournaments though.
Atlanta
The Hawks, aka the Spurs of the East, have won four in a row and seven of their last ten games. Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and DeMarre Carroll are all expected to be back in the lineup tonight, after being rested the other night against the Heat. Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap will likely be rested soon, so make sure that they are in the lineup before targeting them against the Rockets. While the Rockets’ matchup isn’t terrible, there aren’t any options that really stand out tonight. The Hawks are a very deep team that loves to limit their starter’s minutes. I want no part of that in a game where they are 9-point favorites.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 41-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -1.5, 187 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Washington | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 92.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.00 | Team Pace | 95.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 3 | 16 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Season | 12 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 4 | |
Washington
The Wizards have lost seven of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference. A win over the Bulls would go a long way for their morale, as well as their chances to catch the Bulls in the standings. The Wizards are listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 187 points. The Bulls have been stout defensively this season, but will be without two of the best perimeter defenders in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 37-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Gortat is living up to his nickname, which just so happens to be one of the best nicknames in sports. Over his last five games, the Polish Hammer has averaged 35 fantasy points per contest. He will likely be asked to log heavy minutes tonight against the Bulls, who have one of the biggest and most talented frontcourts in the entire NBA.
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Wall hasn’t been particularly bad lately, but he hasn’t had the same ceiling that we’ve seen from him in the past. He has only topped 40 fantasy points one time in his last ten games. If you are trying to reach 5x salary for value, that means that he has only reached value once in the last couple of weeks. He draws a favorable matchup against Aaron Brooks, but I’m not sure that he will be able to pay off his expensive salary.
Chicago
Much like the Rockets, the Bulls are full of viable fantasy options tonight. With Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson all out for the foreseeable future, there is a ton of lost production that needs to be made up by the rest of the team. Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, and Tony Snell are the obvious players that see a boost in their absence, but Nikola Mirotic, Mike Dunleavy, and Joakim Noah should also see an uptick in minutes and/or usage.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 34-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9500, DK: $9500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Gasol is having a career year, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. With all of the injuries to the Bulls, he’s going to be asked to carry the load offensively. A matchup against the tough frontcourt of the Wizards isn’t one that we usually try to target, but it’s hard to imagine Gasol having a bad game tonight. He will likely see minutes in the upper 30’s and should be considered the premier play at power forward.
Joakim Noah (FD: $7200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
Noah may not have a very high usage rate, but he does everything well on the floor. He’s not a player that relies on scoring for his fantasy production. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points in each of his last seven games, averaging 34 fantasy points during that stretch. The offense will likely run through Noah a lot more with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose both out. I expect him to flirt with triple-double territory a few times over the next couple of weeks.
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $4500, DK: $4400 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Mirotic is going to see a sizable uptick in minutes and production with all of the injuries to the Bulls. He will likely come off the bench tonight, but he offers great upside at his price point. He is coming off of a 40 fantasy point outing against the Clippers and he should push for 30+ minutes tonight against the Wizards.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Brooks hasn’t played great in his first three starts since the Derrick Rose injury, but he will continue to start at point guard tonight against the Wizards. Brooks can get hot at any time and he only needs around 23 fantasy points to reach value. That’s a feat that he can certainly accomplish against a Wizards’ defense that has struggled to contain opposing point guards recently.
Secondary Plays
Tony Snell (FD: $3800, DK: $3600), and Mike Dunleavy (FD: $3900, DK: $3800) are both viable value plays at their respective positions. They should see an uptick in minutes and/or usage with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose out.