NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 3rd - Page Two
Utah at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -8, 182.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Utah | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 182.5 |  | Vegas Total | 182.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 87.25 | Team Proj. | 95.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.9 | Team Pace | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 8 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 2 | |
Utah
If you compare all seven games on the schedule tonight, this one has the least fantasy appeal, and it’s not even close. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace and both are ranked in the top five in points allowed per game. The total for tonight’s game is set at only 182.5 points. The Jazz are projected to score a measly 87.3 points. Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert have both been great since the Enes Kanter trade, but neither stand out in a potential blowout against the defensive-minded Grizzlies.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 42-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are 8-point favorites against the Jazz in a game that easily has the lowest total on the schedule. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 95.3 points tonight and this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. With all of the fantasy options available on the Rockets and Bulls tonight, you can safely avoid the Grizzlies in all league formats.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 23-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -5.5, 193 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
| Milwaukee | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.75 | Team Proj. | 93.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.38 | Team Pace | 98.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 24 | Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 24 | 4 | 19 | 12 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost two games in a row, but have a great chance to bounce back with a win tonight. The Nuggets have all but given up on their season, as they have lost six in a row and nine of their last ten. The Bucks are listed as 5.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 200 points. This is one of the more favorable matchups on the board, as the Nuggets are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 18th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 20-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $7100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
The Greek Alphabet has strung together an impressive stretch of games, averaging 34 fantasy points over his last ten games. His price on FanDuel is still too cheap, especially when you factor in his matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Khris Middleton (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
The only knock that I have on Middleton is his expensive price tag. He has played well over his last nine games, averaging 29 fantasy points per contest. I seems to have a Middleton-block though, as I refuse to pay that much for a player that was so inconsistent earlier in the season. The matchup is there though, so if you are willing to pay the price, Middleton is actually a pretty decent play tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $4300, DK: $4400 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Ilyasova is right there with Andrea Bargnani and Nikola Mirotic as the top value plays at power forward tonight. I have Ilyasova ranked behind Bargnani and Mirotic, but he still provides great upside at his price point. He has averaged 27 fantasy points per game over his last four and he draws a tremendous matchup against the Nuggets.
Denver
The Nuggets have fired head coach Brian Shaw, so maybe we will finally see a consistent rotation moving forward. It’s hard to what rotation interim head coach Melvin Hunt will have though, so it may be smart to take a wait and see approach. The Nuggets’ matchup is less than appealing, as the Bucks are ranked second in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 32-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $5200, DK: $5200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
If you absolutely have to have some exposure to the Nuggets tonight, Gallinari is the preferred play. He has played well over his last six games, topping the 25 fantasy point mark four times. His price is reasonable at $5,200 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the Bucks are ranked 20th against small forwards this season.