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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-04 01:12:08

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
miaminba Vegas Total 190.5 torontonba Vegas Total 190.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat picked up two huge wins in Games 6 and 7 to advance out of the first round. They now get to face a Raptors’ team that just doesn’t seem built for the postseason. I expect this to be a close series, but I am going to pick the Heat in six games. The Heat open up as 4.5-point underdogs against the Raptors in Game 1. They are only projected to score 93 points, which is the lowest team total on the board. I will be avoiding Goran Dragic against Kyle Lowry. I will also be fading Hassan Whiteside, as the two centers in the Blazers/Warriors game are both stronger plays.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$8,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Wade carried his team to victory in Game 6 against the Hornets. He has seen a major boost in minutes in the postseason, which is always a plus for a player that averages over a fantasy point per minute. He draws a decent matchup against DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors. This should be a good matchup, as the two are evenly priced across the industry.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Power forward is awfully thin tonight. You have Draymond Green and Luol Deng and then a couple of scrub players. Deng deserves to be considered an elite play for that reason and for his recent form. He scored at least 25 fantasy points in every single game in the Hornets’ series. He should see minutes in the mid to high-30s tonight.

Secondary Plays

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 32.4 -1.0 32.0 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 22.2 21.7 -0.4 23.3 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.6 1.1 18.4 2.9

Johnson is not a flashy play by any means. There are only mid-range options at small forward tonight, but there are five viable choices. I actually expect Johnson to have the lowest ownership of the five, making him an excellent tournament play against the Raptors. He is basically guaranteed to play at least 35 minutes.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 56-26 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 7-3

Say what you want about the Raptors, but they advanced to the second round after a very fun series against the Pacers. Things don’t get any easier from here on out though, as they take on the Heat in this round. The Raptors do open up as favorites in Game 1. They are projected to score 97.5 points, which is the third lowest team total of the four teams in action. I will be avoiding Jonas Valanciunas down low. Not only does he draw a difficult matchup against Hassan Whiteside, but I’d rather target the centers in the Blazers/Warriors game.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.5 -2.4 30.5 -5.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 35.4 0.1 29.8 -5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.1 1.0 26.4 0.4

The choice between DeRozan and Dwyane Wade is a tough one. I have them projected for similar outings, so it basically all comes down to price. With their prices being similar on FanDuel, I will probably lean toward Wade. However, with a $1,200 discount on DraftKings, I prefer DeRozan. He has a nice track record against the Heat and he should be the go-to guy offensively.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 35.0 -2.0 30.8 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.0 -9.5 28.5 -10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.8 -0.1 23.0 0.1

Lowry is a solid tournament play tonight, but with Damian Lillard and Shaun Livingston in such good spots, it’s hard to take Lowry in cash games unless you are employing a three-PG approach on DraftKings. We know Lowry has upside, but he just hasn’t looked the same ever since he injured his elbow nearly a month ago.

Patrick Patterson
patrick-patterson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.6 27.7 2.1 24.7 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 15.3 17.3 2.0 12.7 -2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.9 0.0 8.2 -2.7

If you want to fade one of the expensive power forwards (Green or Deng), Patterson could be worth a look. His price is still awfully cheap and he has been in the starting lineup the last few games. We shouldn’t expect a lot from Patterson, but 15-20 fantasy points is certainly possible.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors
portlandnba Vegas Total 213.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 111.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Shaun Livingston Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 44-38 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 7-3

The Thunder/Spurs series is a great example of why we shouldn’t make assumptions about a series after Game 1. Basically, no one is giving the Blazers any chance tonight or in the series overall. I fully expect the Warriors to advance to the next round, but I expect a much better performance from Portland tonight. They missed SO many shots within five feet in Game 1. The Blazers are listed as 9.5-point underdogs here and I actually expect them to keep it a little closer. With Wade, Thompson, and DeRozan all in good spots, I will be fading C.J. McCollum in cash games.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

Even though the Blazers were blown out in Game 1, Lillard still finished with 45 fantasy points in 42 minutes of action. He has absolutely torched the Warriors this season and should be considered close to a must play tonight. He is the top point guard target on the board and I expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the board.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

My main man Plumdog Millionaire couldn’t buy a bucket in Game 1. He missed so many shots right around the rim. The crazy part is that he still finished with 26 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action. Assuming he can make a few shots, I expect his minutes to go back up to the 30s tonight in Game 2. He is my favorite center in this two-game slate.

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

Aminu really played well in the first game of the series, scoring 22 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action. Much like Mason Plumlee, I expect his minutes to go back up into the 30s tonight in Game 2. He is the most expensive small forward in this slate, but he is my favorite of the bunch.

Secondary Plays

Maurice Harkless
moe-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.7 27.7 9.0 28.0 9.3
FPPG (FD) 13.3 25.2 11.9 26.0 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.4 2.2 17.1 3.8

Before the series started, I made the prediction that Harkless would outproduce Aminu. After the first game, Aminu has the slight edge. I would love to use Harkless in all league formats tonight, but Aminu’s minutes seem a bit safer. It makes sense to pay the few hundred extra for Aminu.

Ed Davis
ed-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 21.1 0.3 19.9 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 19.3 21.7 2.4 19.2 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.6 -0.2 12.1 1.3

Davis could be a popular punt play tonight. He is cheap and he is coming off of a 24 fantasy point outing against the Warriors in Game 1. What we have to keep in mind is that Mason Plumlee was awful. Davis is a nice value at power forward, but I find myself paying up for Draymond Green and Luol Deng.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 73-9 — Home: 39-2 — Last 10: 8-2

The Warriors cruised to a victory in Game 1, but as the Thunder showed last night, that doesn’t mean that they are automatically going to do the same thing in Game 2. The Warriors are listed as 9.5-point favorites and they have the highest implied team total on the board. With Stephen Curry still out, all five starters from the Warriors (plus Andre Iguodala) are in play tonight.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,300 Salary:$10,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 35.8 1.1 34.2 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 41.0 1.9 34.1 -5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.5 -0.5 14.8 -1.2

Green is a must play when Stephen Curry is out, especially when we only have two games in this slate. He put up a triple-double with 61 fantasy points in the first game of the series. Don’t overthink this one, he should be a building block in your lineups.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.5 2.2 34.8 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 29.2 -1.7 28.8 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 20.3 -2.0 18.9 -3.4

Thompson has been on fire over the last few games. I have all three of the expensive shooting guards projected closely tonight, but Thompson is going to get more shots than the other two. As I mentioned before the first game, Thompson could end up averaging 25 shot attempts per game in this series.

Shaun Livingston
shaun-livingston-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$5,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.5 21.1 1.6 20.1 0.6
FPPG (FD) 14.3 16.8 2.4 17.2 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 12.7 12.7 0.0 13.0 0.3

I really wish the sites would price Livingston around $6,000. While it would make lineups more difficult to build, it would lower his ownership. He is basically a must play at his price range and he will end up being 90% owned. You can’t fade him at this price point.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Bogut
andrew-bogut-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.7 20.3 -0.4 23.8 3.1
FPPG (FD) 20.2 16.8 -3.3 23.0 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 9.5 7.3 -2.1 7.5 -1.9

Bogut played 25 minutes in Game 1 and he scored 33 fantasy points. If he averages 25 minutes per game, he is going to reach and exceed value time and time again against the Blazers. If you don’t like Mason Plumlee at center, Bogut is the next best option.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 24.7 -1.9 24.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 18.5 12.9 -5.6 12.9 -5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 8.2 -2.6 8.2 -2.6

Iguodala didn’t play well in Game 1 and I expect his ownership to plummet tonight. I like him more than Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless though, as he is essentially playing 30 minutes with the back-up point guard duties as a bonus. We know the type of upside that he has and this is a good night to take him when his ownership won’t be through the roof.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 33.9 3.0 32.4 1.5
FPPG (FD) 21.0 22.9 2.0 21.7 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 13.5 -0.4 14.3 0.5

DFS lesson: when Barnes finally starts playing well and finally has people believing in him, that’s the time when he puts up a dud. He had a terrific Game 1 in the series and he is certainly a fine play at $4,400. However, don’t come crying to me if he goes out and puts up 13 fantasy points.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious