NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Milwaukee at Miami
| Milwaukee | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts |  | Vegas | |||||||||
| Spread | Spread | |||||||||||
| Pace | 93.95 | Pace | 95.41 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 25 | Season | 1 | 22 | 24 | 12 | 20 | |
| Last10 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 25 | Last10 | 1 | 22 | 24 | 12 | 20 | |
| Wolters-Mayo-Butler-Henson-Pachulia | Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh | |||||||||||
Milwaukee
The Bucks will be without their two starting big men as Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova are both out with injuries. While that significantly hurts their chances of winning this game, it really opens the door for both John Henson and Zaza Pachulia. Both of which should see 30+ minutes against a weak interior defense of the Heat. While the blowout potential is there, so is the upside.
The Heat have defended guards well this season and now that Brandon Knight is back in the mix, it really hurts the minutes for both Nate Wolters and Gary Neal. I think Wolters still carries some value on sites that have him listed near minimum salary, but I don’t see Neal getting enough minutes to be worth taking. One under the radar play that you may want to consider is Caron Butler. With all of the injuries, he has played 30 and 38 minutes in the last two games.
Players to Target
- John Henson – Henson is one of my favorite plays tonight. He is a very inconsistent player, but when given big minutes, he is a walking double-double. Without anyone to challenge him for minutes tonight, I really think he plays well. Add in the fact that Udonis Haslem may be out and you have to love the value that you are getting with both Henson and Pachulia.
- Zaza Pachulia – I’m not sure how highly owned Zaza is going to be tonight. He should get plenty of minutes, but he’s coming off of a bad game and could be in a blowout situation. For me, the choice is simple, his price is far too low to not have him in your lineup. He’s played very well this season and should see 30+ minutes if the Bucks can keep this game within 15 points.
Miami
The Heat are in a bad situation tonight. The Bucks play with one of the slowest paces in the league and the Heat are not far behind with only 95 possessions per game. The Heat are favored by 14 points tonight and could easily get up big early and coast to a victory. For me, the risk of Lebron James and Dwyane Wade sitting the entire 4th quarter outweighs their potential upside in a good matchup.
However, I do think this could be a good game to target some of the role players of the Heat. The Bucks have not defended Centers well and Bosh typically plays well in good matchups. He’s a nice option if you want to spend at the Center position.
Players to Target
- Shane Battier – Udonis Haslem is questionable for tonight’s game and if he can’t give it a go, look for Battier to step into the starting lineup. Battier is near minimum salary on sites across the board and would see a nice uptick in minutes if Haslem is out. Battier is a low risk, medium reward option whose minutes shouldn’t be affected by the outcome of the game.
Washington at Dallas
| Washington | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 208.0 |  | Vegas | 208.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 5.0 | Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 100.59 | Pace | 101.17 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 15 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 19 | Season | 8 | 11 | 28 | 17 | 30 | |
| Last10 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 19 | Last10 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 17 | 30 | |
| Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat | Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert | |||||||||||
Washington
The Wizards are playing at a quick pace this season (100) and are the 6th highest scoring team this season at 105 points per game. They have been a bright spot for us daily fantasy players because they have plenty of options to choose from every night. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza, and Marcin Gortat have all been very productive fantasy players this season and are all decent options against the Mavericks who are giving up 104 points per game.
The Mavericks are in the bottom half of the league against every single position in their DvP rankings. The Mavericks have a lot of bad defenders in that starting lineup and Vegas has this game projected as the highest scoring game of the night. No one is off limits in this game because the matchups are good all around.
Players to Target
- Bradley Beal – After a slow start to the season, Beal has really turned it on over his last 3 games where he has averaged close to 40 FP’s. Beal is their best scorer and has a dream matchup against Monta Ellis and the uptempo Mavericks. Beal will have a huge size advantage over Ellis and should be able to shoot over him anytime that he wants.
- Trevor Ariza – Even though I’m recommending Beal and Ariza, I also like the matchup for both John Wall and Marcin Gortat. But Beal and Ariza are a bit cheaper and make better plays based on their salaries. Ariza is averaging over 28 FP’s per game this season, yet his price on a few sites has yet to reflect his production. He’s close to a must start on both FD and DK.
Dallas
The Mavericks are near the top of the league in both pace of play (101) and points scored per game (107). They are really pushing the tempo and have become one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because whoever they play gets a nice bump thanks to style of play of the Mavs.
The Wizards have not had a great defense this season giving up 107 points per game. They have really only defended one position well and that is PG’s. John Wall has played pretty solid defense this season and is one of the better on ball defenders when he wants to be. For me, that hurts the value of Jose Calderon tonight.
Players to Target
- Monta Ellis – Monta has been a nice addition to this offense, but he hasn’t left his inconsistent play in the past. Ellis’ fantasy point production has ranged from 23 FP’s all the way up to 47 FP’s. He’s a tough player to predict on a nightly basis, but all we can do is look at the matchup and make our best judgement. I think Ellis plays well tonight against the Wizards in what should be a high scoring game.
- DeJuan Blair – Blair has been an excellent fit for this second unit of the Mavericks. While he is only seeing around 20 minutes per game, he is averaging more than a FP per minute which is very impressive. He is still around minimum salary on a couple sites and should be used with confidence on those sites.
Detroit at Golden State
| Detroit | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 201.0 |  | Vegas | 201.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 9.0 | Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 96.86 | Pace | 102.37 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 29 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 10 | Season | 23 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 24 | |
| Last10 | 29 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 10 | Last10 | 23 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 24 | |
| Jennings-Billups-Smith-Monroe-Drummond | Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut | |||||||||||
Detroit
The Pistons pace of play seems to change every night, but now that Brandon Jennings is back in the lineup, they should start to push the tempo a bit more. In their last two games they have scored 110 and 103 points and should top the 100 point mark again tonight against the Warriors. The problem with the Pistons is that they have too many solid fantasy players on their team. Brandon Jennings, Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond can all put up big numbers, but predicting who it will be each night is going to be a tough task.
The Warriors have above average defenders in their lineup. Both Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut are very solid defensively and that is shown by the Warriors DvP rankings against SG’s and SF’s. I imagine that Iguodala will be guarding Josh Smith tonight, but we probably won’t find out until the game starts.
Players to Target
- Brandon Jennings – Jennings is coming off of his best game as a Piston. Last night he put up 28, 5, and 4 against the Blazers and the matchup lines up well again for him tonight. Jennings really played well against Curry last season averaging 25 points and 8 assists. Look for him to push the tempo tonight and put up good numbers against Curry who is below average defensively.
Golden State
The Warriors are in the top half of the league in both pace of play (102) and points scored per game (103). They have always been a team that pushes the ball and takes quick shots and this season is no different, except now they have a top defender in Iguodala. Vegas has the Warriors as 9 point favorites in this one, but I think that the Pistons will stay within striking distance and all starters should see their full allotment of minutes.
The Pistons DvP rankings make my job easy. They have really struggled against PG’s, SF’s, and Centers and have defended really well against SG’s and PF’s. If you trust the numbers, then the players to target on the Warriors tonight are Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Bogut, all of which make good plays.
Players to Target
- Klay Thompson – Thompson is my favorite play of the three mentioned above. If Josh Smith is on him, he should get plenty of open looks as Smith rarely fights through screens. If Stuckey is on him, Thompson should be able to easily shoot over him. Thompson is one of the best pure shooters in the game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up 30 points against the Pistons.
New Orleans at L.A.Lakers
| New Orleans | L.A.Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 198.5 |  | Vegas | 198.5 | |||||||
| Spread | -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 94.79 | Pace | 102.51 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 25 | 30 | 8 | 29 | 22 | Season | 12 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 6 | |
| Last10 | 25 | 30 | 8 | 29 | 22 | Last10 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 6 | |
| Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Smith | Blake-Meeks-Young-Kaman-Gasol | |||||||||||
New Orleans
The Pelicans (I still find myself typing Hornets every time I talk about them) have been a very slow paced team this season, but it hasn’t hurt their individual player’s fantasy appeal. There are four good fantasy options for the Pelicans tonight: Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, and Jason Smith. All of these players have an above average matchup against the Lakers who often forget to play defense. With two potential blowouts on the schedule, this isn’t a bad game to target.
Players to Target
- Anthony Davis – In case you missed his performance the other night, Davis went for 32 and 12 against the Lakers. He was also a beast on defense and ended up scoring over 60 FP’s. I don’t see anything changing in tonight’s matchup against the Lakers. He has such an advantage on both ends of the floor against this weak frontcourt of the Lakers.
- Eric Gordon – Gordon is a bit cheaper than Holiday and has just as much upside. Gordon has scored over 28 FP’s in five of his first seven games this season and finally looks 100% healthy after a few years of tough injuries. The matchup doesn’t get much better, he should be able to post up Blake and shoot over him all night.
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are playing at a very quick pace (102) but are only scoring 97 points per game. That has to be one of the biggest discrepancies between pace of play and points scored in the NBA. They just aren’t hitting shots and they are settling for way too many jumpers. Their biggest problem is that they don’t have anyone that can attack the rim.
It sounds like Steve Nash will get the night off which means Jodie Meeks will start at SG again. This gives Meeks, Blake, and Farmar all a nice boost. The Lakers have also decided to start Jordan Hill over Chris Kaman so give him a slight bump as well.
Players to Target
- Steve Blake – Even though I don’t love the matchup, Blake is still cheap across the board and sees over 30 minutes per game. He is also going to be the starting PG tonight so look for his to increase his assists in this one. I think Meeks and Farmar are both in play, but Blake is the safer option of the bunch.