NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 15th - Page Three
Charlotte at Toronto – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -10.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-Williams-Biyombo
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Hansbrough-Valanciunas
| Charlotte | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.47 | Team Pace | 95.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Jeffery Taylor | Marvin Williams | Bismack Biyombo | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Tyler Hansbrough | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 26 | 8 | 12 | Opp. Season | 16 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 27 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets will be short-handed for the season finale, as Al Jefferson, Lance Stephenson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller are all expected to miss tonight’s game. The Hornets are 10.5-point underdogs against a Raptors’ team that is still fighting for playoff positioning. There aren’t any players that really stand out here, but there are a few decent secondary targets on the Hornets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 48-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $6800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Marvin Williams (FD: $4800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Bismack Biyombo (FD: $4600, DK: $5400 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 11.9)
Toronto
The Raptors can still get the three-seed in the Eastern Conference with a win and a Bulls’ loss. Their starters should see their usual amount of minutes tonight, but the matchup isn’t exactly one that we need to go out of our way to target. The Hornets are a very slow-paced team that has held their opponents to the eighth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 33-48
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $8600, DK: $8100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.5)
Indiana at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -1.5, 186 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Indiana | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186 |  | Vegas Total | 186 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.68 | Team Pace | 94.33 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 10 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | |
Indiana
The Pacers need to win tonight to secure a spot in the playoffs. They have won six games in a row, but they draw one of the toughest matchups on the board. The Grizzlies are ranked second in points allowed per game this season and Memphis is still fighting for playoff positioning. Even in a must-win situation, there aren’t any elite plays on the Pacers tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 54-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
George Hill (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
David West (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Memphis
The two, three, five, and six-seed are all up for grabs in the Western Conference, so the Grizzlies do have motivation to win tonight against the Pacers. They will be without Mike Conley, which means Beno Udrih will draw another start at point guard. While this game is meaningful for both teams, it features two of the top five defenses in the NBA, which typically isn’t a great sign for individual fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 38-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $7200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Beno Udrih (FD: $3700, DK: $3400 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Denver at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11, 220 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Denver | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220 |  | Vegas Total | 220 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11 | Vegas Sprd | -11 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 115.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.56 | Team Pace | 100.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 16 | Opp. Season | 12 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 26 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 19 | |
Denver
The Nuggets should have Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari back in the lineup tonight, after both players were rested in their last game. The Nuggets are sizable underdogs against the Warriors, but this is actually a sneaky matchup. The Warriors have nothing to play for tonight and they are the fastest-paced team in the NBA. The Nuggets make terrific tournament targets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 66-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $7400, DK: $6400 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Gallinari was rested on Monday night, but is expected to be back in the lineup for the season finale. Gallinari has been terrific over the last month of play and with the Warriors having nothing to play for; he may be playing against their backups for a large portion of the game. He has averaged 47 fantasy points per game over his last three outings. His elevated price point makes him a great tournament play tonight, as most people will overlook him.
Secondary Plays
Editor’s Note: Kenneth Faried, Randy Foye, Jameer Nelson, and Darrell Arthur are out
Kenneth Faried (FD: $7000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Ty Lawson (FD: $7100, DK: $6600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Randy Foye (FD: $5100, DK: $5000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Golden State
The Warriors have nothing to play for tonight, as they have secured home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Their starters will likely be in the lineup, but there is a very good chance that they will see limited playing time. Even in a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, I will be avoiding the Warriors altogether tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 30-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -3.5, 205 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Thompson
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Blue-Brown-Kelly-Hill-Black
| Sacramento | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.50 | Vegas Sprd | -3.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.75 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.83 | Team Pace | 96.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Carl Landry | Jason Thompson | Proj Starter | Vander Blue | Jabari Brown | Ryan Kelly | Jordan Hill | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 25 | 23 | 16 | 23 | Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 17 | 23 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 12 | 24 | 29 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 23 | |
Sacramento
Even though this game doesn’t mean anything to either team, this is the best game of the night to target for fantasy production. This game features two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and both teams are playing short-handed. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Omri Casspi is listed as questionable. Don’t be afraid to load up on Kings’ players tonight against the Lakers.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 21-60
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Ray McCallum (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
With all of the injuries, McCallum should see an uptick in both minutes and usage, as the Kings take on the Lakers, who have been atrocious defensively this season. McCallum has played well over his last 23 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and he is one of the few players on the board that could potentially easily reach the 6x-7x salary type of production.
Ben McLemore (FD: $4600, DK: $4800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
McLemore should also see an uptick in both minutes and usage rate. He also draws a fantastic matchup against the Lakers, who have really struggled against shooting guards this season. McLemore should push for 40 minutes of playing time and his price is still listed at a bargain-bin price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He struggled against the Lakers on Monday night, but I’m expecting a nice bounce-back effort from him tonight.
Derrick Williams (FD: $4300, DK: $4200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18)
Williams has played well over his last five games, averaging 26 fantasy points in 29 minutes per contest. He could see even more playing time tonight if Omri Casspi is unable to suit up. Williams is cheap and he draws one of the best matchups on the board in the Lakers. He’s a low-risk, high-reward fantasy option for both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Omri Casspi (FD: $5300, DK: $5600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.8) – If he plays, bump him up to an elite option.
Jason Thompson (FD: $5000, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers will be without Jordan Clarkson, Jeremy Lin, and Wesley Johnson tonight. They will be extremely short-handed, which means all five starters could realistically play around 40 minutes each. They draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 28-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Jordan Hill (FD: $5500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
The Lakers are extremely short-handed tonight and this is one of the few times during the season that Hill’s minutes should be secure. He played well in his start against the Kings on Monday night, finishing with 30 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action. At his price point, he is the top value play at center tonight.
Jabari Brown (FD: $4100, DK: $4200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
With Jordan Clarkson and Jeremy Lin out, Brown should see all of the playing time that he can handle tonight. He scored 30 fantasy points in 46 minutes in his matchup against the Kings on Monday night. Brown’s price is still too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should be targeted in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Ryan Kelly (FD: $4700, DK: $4800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Tarik Black (FD: $4800, DK: $4300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 13.9)