NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 15th - Page Two
Boston at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Turner-Crowder-Bass-Zeller
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Boston | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.35 | Team Pace | 96.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Season | 20 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 20 | 3 | |
Boston
With a win last night, the Celtics clinched a playoff berth and they are locked into the seven seed in the Eastern Conference. Avery Bradley will not play tonight, as he is dealing with a bruised quad. The Celtics already have a deep and inconsistent rotation and with nothing to play for, that only makes predicting minutes even more difficult.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 41-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Jae Crowder (FD: $4900, DK: $4400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
The Celtics are locked into their playoff spot, but I still expect Crowder to see some extended playing time tonight with Avery Bradley out. Crowder has played well this season, averaging close to 0.80 fantasy points per minutes. He could see somewhere in the range of 30 minutes tonight against a Bucks’ defense that is ranked 24th against small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4300, DK: $4300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Milwaukee
The Bucks are locked into the six seed in the Eastern Conference. Head coach Jason Kidd said that he was considering limiting his player’s minutes in the last two games of the season, so be on the lookout for that tonight against the Celtics. With both of these teams already locked into their playoff positions, this game offers little fantasy appeal.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 39-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Khris Middleton (FD: $6700, DK: $6000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Oklahoma City at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -14, 214 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-Kanters-Adams
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Martin-Wiggins-Payne-Hamilton
| Oklahoma City | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 114.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.3 | Team Pace | 96.9 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Justin Hamilton | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 29 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Season | 25 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder need a win and a Pelicans’ loss to make the playoffs, both of which could easily happen tonight. In a must-win situation, the starters from the Thunder should see their usual allotment of minutes, if not even more. They draw a fantastic matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked dead last in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-65
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12600, DK: $12000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)
Westbrook is the top overall play on the board tonight. Not only does he face a must-win situation against the Wolves, but he draws arguably the best matchup on the board. The Wolves are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season and they are ranked 29th against point guards. Westbrook will take over this game just like he has throughout the season. The best part is that it’s easy to fit him in your lineups with all of the value plays available.
Enes Kanter (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Kanter is also an elite play tonight against the Wolves. He could see a small boost in minutes and he should be able to dominate a depleted Wolves’ frontcourt. Kanter has really stepped up since Serge Ibaka went down with his injury and he should be considered one of the top options at center tonight. Don’t be afraid to use Kanter and Westbrook together, as a large number of Kanter’s points come off of passes from Westbrook.
Secondary Plays
Dion Waiters (FD: $5100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Minnesota
The Wolves are already short-handed, and now it looks like Chase Budinger (doubtful) and Kevin Martin (questionable) could both be out as well. Any starter in the lineup tonight has a good chance of seeing 40+ minutes of playing time against one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 44-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
The Wolves’ rotation gets tighter and tighter, as they keep losing players to injuries. With Chase Budinger doubtful and Kevin Martin questionable, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Wolves played Wiggins the entire game tonight. You aren’t going to find another player with his usage rate that may possibly play all 48 minutes. He’s a terrific option at small forward, even at his elevated price point.
Zach LaVine (FD: $6300, DK: $6700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
LaVine is in the same boat as Andrew Wiggins. He has played 45 minutes in each of his last two games and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him play all 48 minutes tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 25th against point guards this season. Don’t be afraid to pay a premium for LaVine, as he will play all of the minutes that he can handle tonight.
Secondary Plays
Lorenzo Brown (FD: $3900, DK: $3400 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Orlando at Brooklyn – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -8, 203 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Gordon-Vucevic
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Orlando | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.91 | Team Pace | 94.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 17 | Opp. Season | 21 | 9 | 30 | 22 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 27 | 3 | 28 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 26 | |
Orlando
The Magic have nothing to play for in their last game, but they have no reason to limit their starters’ minutes either. All five starters should log heavy minutes tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 37-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
All four of the players listed below are borderline elite plays tonight against the Nets. Choosing between the four is going to be difficult though, which is why they are all listed as secondary options.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $8200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Elfrid Payton (FD: $7900, DK: $7600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
Tobias Harris (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Aaron Gordon (FD: $3800, DK: $3400 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
Brooklyn
The Nets need a win and a Pacers’ loss to make the playoffs. With everything on the line, the starters will play their usual allotment of minutes and maybe even more. They draw a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Magic are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 25-56
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
With all of the value out there tonight, center may be a position that we should look to spend up on. Lopez is a great candidate for that, as he has been terrific over the last month of play. The Nets are in a must-win game tonight and Lopez draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 24th against centers this season. Lopez has topped the 40-fantasy point mark six times in his last ten games and he has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Thaddeus Young (FD: $5800, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Joe Johnson (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Detroit at New York – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -7.5, 194 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Monroe-Drummond
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Hardaway-Thomas-Smith-Aldrich
| Detroit | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 93.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.16 | Team Pace | 93.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Lance Thomas | Jason Smith | Cole Aldrich | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 25 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 16 | 28 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 6 | |
Detroit
The Pistons draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire NBA. The Pistons are installed as 7.5-point favorites with their team total set at 101 points. The big three of the Pistons are all in play tonight, as they will look to end their season with a win over New York.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 17-64
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8200, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Given his price differential on the two sites, Monroe is a strong play on FanDuel and an elite play on DraftKings tonight. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in three of his last four games and he should have a mis-match in the post against the likes of Jason Smith and Cole Aldrich. Monroe is a safe source of fantasy production tonight against the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9200, DK: $8400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Reggie Jackson (FD: $8300, DK: $8400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
New York
The Knicks will be without Andrea Bargnani tonight, which means Jason Smith and Cole Aldrich will man the frontcourt for the Knicks. New York draws a mediocre matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 11th in rebounding differential this season. It’s hard to trust any of the Knicks’ players as elite plays tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 31-50
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $6400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 18.9)
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Miami at Philadelphia – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -3, 196.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Richardson-Covington-Grant-Aldemir
| Miami | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.17 | Team Pace | 98.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Jason Richardson | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Furkan Aldemir | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 28 | 15 | 24 | 30 | Opp. Season | 8 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 25 | 10 | 11 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |
Miami
The Heat have been eliminated from playoff contention, which means they have nothing to play for tonight against the Sixers. Their starters should see their usual allotment of minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dwyane Wade in a limited role tonight, as he has been dealing with various injuries over the last month of play.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 18-63
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8000, DK: $7500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
The one Heat player that I may consider for cash games tonight is Whiteside. He is coming off of a monster 48-fantasy point outing against the Magic and he now gets to face a Sixers’ frontcourt that will be without Nerlens Noel. The Sixers are also ranked 29th in rebounding differential. Whiteside has 20/20 type of upside tonight against Philadelphia.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $6500, DK: $6800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Philadelphia
The Sixers will be without Nerlens Noel and Luc Mbah a Moute tonight. They may also be without Ish Smith, who is listed as questionable. They draw a difficult matchup against the Heat, who have held their opponents to the 5th-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 36-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5400, DK: $5900 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Jerami Grant (FD: $3700, DK: $3700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 16.2)