NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Denver at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Denver -4, 202.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Gee-Thompson-Bynum
Denver
We have a big night in the industry, so let’s jump right into the action. The Nuggets are playing in a back to back game although the starters sat for most of the 4th quarter so I don’t expect that to be a big factor tonight. The Nuggets are one of the fastest paced teams in the league and I think this is a sneaky game to be very high scoring tonight. The Nuggets are only favored by 4 and both of these teams should look to push the pace.
The Cavaliers have defended Centers well this season, but rank in the bottom 5 against both PG’s and SF’s. This is a good spot for both Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler. I also think J.J. Hickson carries some value here even though the numbers suggest otherwise. He should play big minutes tonight because the Cavs have an extremely big frontcourt and the Nuggets won’t be able to play small ball.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson put up a dud last night against the Nets, but don’t let that affect your decision on him tonight. His price is very affordable across the board and he has a great matchup against the Cavs who are ranked 26th against opposing PG’s this season. He should have a monster bounce back game tonight.
Cleveland
The Cavs are near the bottom of the league in both pace of play (96) and points scored per game (92). These are two very discouraging stats, but luckily for the Cavs, they are taking on one of the fastest paced teams in the league who are giving up over 100 points per game. The Cavs are a very sneaky team to target tonight.
The Nuggets have struggled defending the post this season. They are ranked 30th against opposing PF’s and 16th against opposing Centers. Both Tristan Thompson and Andrew Bynum make interesting plays if their prices are low enough. Bynum is coming off of his best game as a Cav and should keep it going tonight.
- Kyrie Irving – This is a great spot for Irving. He is at his best when he is pushing the ball and knifing through the defense, two things that he should be able to do tonight against the Nuggets. I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Nuggets DvP rank of 9 vs. PG’s. While Lawson is a quick defender, he’s by no means one of the better on ball defenders. Irving should have no problem creating his own shots.
L.A.Clippers at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -3.5, 203 Over/Under
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Williams-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers continue to push the pace (98) and are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 106 points per game. They have a nice matchup tonight against the Hawks. Vegas sees this one as a close game that should be high scoring, two things that we like to see in DFS.
Looking at the Hawks DvP rankings, they have defended PF’s well, but have been less than stellar against the other positions. They are ranked 27th against Centers so look to DeAndre Jordan as a sneaky play. He always has great upside thanks to his ability to rack up rebounds and blocks.
- Chris Paul – Paul started off the season hot and has yet to cool down. He’s posted a double-double in every game this season except for two which is pretty incredible considering the fact that he is a PG. He leads the league in touches per game and the Clippers go and Paul goes. They have a nice matchup tonight and Paul should fill up the stat sheet once again.
Atlanta
The Hawks have a very similar pace (97) as the Clippers, but they don’t have anywhere close to the level of efficiency that the Clippers have. They are only averaging 98 points per game. That’s still not bad, but it just goes to show you how valuable Chris Paul is to that offense.
The Hawks matchup against the Clippers is a good one. The Clippers are giving up over 100 points per game. If you just thought about the defensive weaknesses of the Clippers, you would probably say Green and Dudley, but the Clippers have actually struggled to defend PF’s and Centers, ranking 25th and 30th against those two positions. I think Paul Millsap makes a decent play, but Al Horford gets the nod here.
- Al Horford – Horford has a great matchup against the Clippers who are ranked dead last against Centers this season. I don’t know if Jordan is helping out too much and leaving his man on defense or what, but the numbers don’t lie. Horford is cheaper than quite a few Centers tonight and has as much upside as any Center on the board.
Phoenix at Houston
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Phoenix
The Suns have Eric Bledsoe back in the starting lineup and so far it didn’t work out too well. They did not play well together against the Grizzlies the other night. I think it’s going to take some time for Bledsoe and Dragic to get used to each other. They both like to have the ball in their hands and it’s going to take some adjusting from both players.
The Suns have a nice matchup against the Rockets tonight who are one of the league’s worst defenses, but you do have to be wary of a blowout here. The Rockets are double-digit favorites tonight. I think I will fade the Dragic/Bledsoe situation tonight, but there is one position that has a great matchup that you can exploit. The Rockets are ranked 27th against opposing PF’s this season.
- Channing Frye – Frye has scored at least 18 FP’s in each of his last 7 games and is averaging close to 30 FP’s during that stretch. He can really stretch the floor and it makes it tough for opposing bigs to guard him. The Rockets are not a great team defensively and Frye should get plenty of open looks tonight. If he can knock a few down, he could put up some good numbers here.
Houston
The Rockets lead the league in scoring averaging 109 points per game. There are a couple of injuries to note here. Jeremy Lin is still out with his injury and Chandler Parsons is questionable for tonight’s game. With Lin out, Beverley and Brooks will continue to see big minutes. If Parsons it out, bump up both Garcia and Casspi.
The Rockets matchup against the Suns is pretty average. The Suns are ranked between 8-15 against every position this season so there aren’t any players that really stand out tonight. Throw in the fact that they are double-digit favorites and I think it’s safe to avoid both James Harden and Dwight Howard.
- Patrick Beverley – Beverley has scored over 27 FP’s in each of his last two games and should see big minutes once again with Lin out. He is very affordable across the board and gets big minutes thanks to his shut down defense. I think he easily covers his value tonight and makes a nice under the radar play.
Detroit at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Henson-Udoh
Detroit
I mentioned yesterday that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pistons win against the Heat. I also said that I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost by 20. They are a very talented team that is extremely inconsistent. After a huge win against the Heat, they could be in for a letdown game against the Bucks. Vegas agrees with me on this one as the Pistons are only favored by 4 points against this bad Bucks team.
Looking at the Bucks DvP rankings, the two positions to target here are SF and Center. The Bucks are ranked 23rd against SF’s and 28th against Centers. That said, if you dig a little deeper, you will see that Greg Monroe also has a great matchup. He will have a big strength advantage over both Ilyasova and Henson.
- Andre Drummond – Drummond has an extremely high upside. His biggest problem is that he often gets into foul trouble and he still has a very raw offensive game. I love the matchup for him tonight against the Bucks who are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing Centers this season.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are a tough team to read each night and a major part of that is because of the inconsistent rotation of Coach Larry Drew. It’s hard to trust a lot of these players because they see such inconsistent minutes each night. That said, Brandon Knight has clearly established himself as the starting PG of this team.
Caron Butler is still out with his injury and Khris Middleton makes a nice value play as he has scored over 20 FP’s in five of his last six games. Looking at the Pistons DvP rankings, they struggle against PG’s, SF’s, and Centers.
- Brandon Knight – Knight is still cheap across the board and his price will go up very shortly. He makes a great value play tonight and he’s one of the more reliable options because he gets his fantasy points in a variety of ways. He fills up the stat sheet and can still have a good game even when his shot isn’t falling.
Dallas at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Anderson-Smith
Dallas
The Mavericks may be without Jose Calderon tonight, he was spotted limping after last night’s game and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat this one out. If he does, that will open up big minutes for both Gal Mekel and Shane Larkin. Of the two, I think Mekel makes the better play if Calderon is ruled out.
Even though the Pelicans and Mavericks both play at a fairly average pace, Vegas has the over/under of this game set at 207 points which is one of the highest of the night. This could be a very sneaky game to target. The Hornets haven’t been great at defending SG’s so I like the matchup for Monta Ellis as well.
- Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk doesn’t have many 40+ FP nights, but he lives right in that 30-35 FP range. He has a very favorable matchup against Ryan Anderson who is a below average defender. Dirk is a safe play tonight that you can count on.
New Orleans
The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis for the foreseeable future. That opens up huge minutes for both Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith, both of which make great fantasy plays tonight. This is expected to be a high scoring game and there are quite a few viable options. The Mavs have really struggled to defend SG’s and Centers this season.
- Eric Gordon – Gordon played great in their last game against the Bulls and having Davis out really opens up the door for him to establish himself as the go to guy on offense. I love the matchup against Monta Ellis tonight and think he will easily top 25 FP’s here.
- Ryan Anderson – Obviously, Smith is in play here, but he doesn’t need his own paragraph. Anderson is one of the best shooters in the game and has been on fire lately. He can also pad his rebounds and he makes a great play against a similar style of player Dirk Nowitzki.