NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 25th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Miami at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -2.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
| Miami | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.29 | Team Pace | 95.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 26 | Opp. Season | 13 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 10 | |
Miami
This matchup is a battle between two teams that are trying to change their pace of play. The Heat are trying to pick up their pace with Goran Dragic on board, and the Magic are trying to slow their pace down after an awful month of play on the defensive end of the floor. The Heat draw a favorable matchup in this one, as the Magic are ranked 24th in points allowed and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 19-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Whiteside hasn’t scored more than 40 fantasy points in any of his last four games, but it doesn’t mean that a big outing isn’t coming. He is one of the most productive players in the NBA in terms of fantasy points per minute. He should see 30+ minutes of action tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 26th against centers and 25th in rebounding differential. Whiteside is a terrific tournament play that deserves cash game consideration on sites that allow you to roster more than one center.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $6300, DK: $6300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dragic struggled in his debut with the Heat, but looked great on Monday night, scoring 23 points and dishing out 10 assists. The Heat are trying to push the pace a bit more and that falls on the shoulders of Dragic. His price is still affordable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Orlando
The Magic went from being one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule, to one of my least favorites teams to see on the schedule. They have played at the third-slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last three weeks. Tonight they draw a tough matchup against another slow-paced team in the Heat, who have held their opponents to the third-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 24-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
On a smaller slate, Nikola Vucevic would be in play, but there are at least five centers that I have ranked above him tonight in terms of value. Oladipo is in play though, as shooting guard is a relatively thin position tonight. It also helps that the Heat have struggled to contain shooting guards recently, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the position over the last seven days.
Dallas at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -6.5, 203 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Dallas | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.85 | Team Pace | 96.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Richard Jefferson | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 6 | Opp. Season | 24 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 25 | 5 | 12 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 9 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks have been a barren wasteland when it comes to viable fantasy options recently. They are a deep team that has slowed their pace of play. They are also playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. It’s also worth noting that they are facing a Hawks’ team that is ranked third in points allowed per game this season. The Mavericks are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 44-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $6800, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28)
If you are trying to fill some strange quota and must have some exposure to the Mavericks tonight, Ellis is the preferred play. The Hawks have great team defense, but Kyle Korver has never been known as a shut-down defender. Ellis’ price is depressed at the moment, especially on FanDuel, as he is listed at only $6,800.
Atlanta
The Hawks have stumbled a bit recently, but they are still seven and a half games clear of the Raptors in the Eastern Conference. They host the Mavericks tonight in what is expected to be a relatively high scoring game. The Hawks are 6.5-point favorites in this one with their team total set at 104.8 points. There are few teams ranked lower than the Hawks in rebounding differential, but the Mavericks are one of them.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 39-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7600, DK: $8000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
The Hawks have the same problem as the Mavericks. They are a very deep and talented team that relies on production from their entire team. This makes predicting individual outings tough on a nightly basis. Millsap makes a strong play at power forward though. He is a versatile big man that should create matchup problems for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks. Millsap’s price is also depressed on quite a few sites.
New York at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -12, 197 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Hardaway-Smith-Amundson
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| New York | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.95 | Team Pace | 98.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 23 | Opp. Season | 25 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 4 | 28 | 8 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 17 | 23 | 15 | 6 | |
New York
The Knicks continue to underwhelm. They have nothing to play for at this point and are having a tough time keeping games competitive with Carmelo Anthony out for the season. They head to Boston to take on the Celtics tonight. The Knicks are listed as 12-point underdogs and are only projected to score 92.5 points, which is one of the lowest team totals on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 21-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $4600, DK: $4300 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Langston Galloway would be an intriguing option if he was listed as a shooting guard, but it’s hard to target him with all of the other options at point guard. Hardaway is listed as a shooting guard though and may see a sizable uptick in minutes tonight. Lance Thomas has already been ruled out and Cleanthony Early is listed as questionable.
Boston
The Celtics are playing some decent basketball and actually have a chance to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The injury to Jared Sullinger was tough to swallow, but they did acquire Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. The Celtics should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the Knicks, who have all but given up on their season. The Knicks are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $5000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21)
Bass is going to see 30+ minutes tonight even if Kelly Olynyk is back in the lineup, but he’s obviously a much better play if Olynyk is forced to sit out again. Bass has been terrific over his last three games, averaging 29.4 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He should feast on the weak frontcourt of the Knicks tonight.
Secondary Plays
Tyler Zeller (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Zeller is in the same boat as Bass, the only difference is that there are more options at center tonight than there are at power forward. That leaves Zeller as a secondary play tonight, even though he should see an uptick in minutes and production against a Knicks’ team that is ranked 22nd against centers this season.
Brooklyn at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Anderson-Johnson-Plumlee
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Cunningham-Asik
| Brooklyn | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192.5 |  | Vegas Total | 192.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 95.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.33 | Team Pace | 93.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 8 | Opp. Season | 16 | 27 | 7 | 25 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 27 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets are currently sitting in the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. It’s tough to tell if they are trying to win to make the playoffs or if they are trying to tank in order to improve their position in the draft. Either way, they head to New Orleans to take on the short-handed Pelicans tonight. The Nets are 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a low total of 192.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 29-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $5900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Jarrett Jack will be active tonight, but he is only expected to play limited minutes off the bench. That’s good news for Williams, who has posted back-to-back 40+ fantasy point outings. Williams should see around 35 minutes tonight against the Pelicans, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. He’s one of the better value plays at the point guard position tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans
The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson tonight against the Nets. Having those two out of the lineup opens up a ton of minutes and a ton of shots for the rest of the players on the team. While the matchup against the Nets is average at best, the injury situation should open the door for a couple of options tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 23-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8100, DK: $8100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Evans already has a high usage rate (25.7) and it will only go up with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out of the lineup. While he says that he is less than 100%, he is dealing with an illness rather than an injury. I’m expecting another quality outing from him tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season. The best part about Evans is that he is listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel. This allows us to roster three point guards even though there are technically only two point guard spots.
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon (FD: $6300, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Tyreke Evans isn’t the only one that benefits with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson being out. Gordon put up 39 fantasy points in the game that they both got hurt and then backed up it up 28 fantasy points on Monday against the Raptors. He will fly under the radar tonight, making him a strong play in tournaments.
Charlotte at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -8, 191 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Charlotte | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.31 | Team Pace | 95.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 2 | 17 | 20 | 14 | Opp. Season | 6 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 8 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls, who are going to be without Derrick Rose for the foreseeable future. The Hornets are 8-point underdogs in a game that features a very low total of 191 points. The Bulls present a tough matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and sixth in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 36-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Even though the matchup isn’t ideal, Williams is an elite play tonight against the Bulls. In his first two starts with the Hornets, Williams has averaged 36 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. He also sees a small fantasy boost with Derrick Rose out of the lineup, as he will now match up against the likes of Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks. Dollar for dollar, Williams is one of the top plays at point guard tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Chicago
The Bulls received terrible news last night. Derrick Rose tore his meniscus and is expected to miss the rest of the season. Given his injury history and how long it typically takes him to return, who knows when we will see Rose on the floor again. Rose’s absence is going to give a sizable boost to Jimmy Butler, while Pau Gasol, Kirk Hinrich, and Aaron Brooks will all see a small boost as well.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 29-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8700, DK: $7700 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Do you remember when Rose was out earlier in the season and Butler was basically a lock for 40 fantasy points every single night? We can expect more of the same now that Rose is out for the season. Butler should see an uptick in usage and he should continue to see close to 40 minutes per game. He may be a little expensive on FanDuel, but he’s an elite play on DraftKings at a price of only $7,700.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9300, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Gasol will see a small boost with Derrick Rose out. Rose was responsible for so much offensively, that Gasol is going to have to shoulder some of the load in his absence. Gasol is having a career season and his numbers are only going to improve with Rose out of the lineup. Gasol has a very high floor and makes a safe cash game play against the Hornets.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $3500, DK: $3400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
If you want to take a shot at one of the Bulls’ point guards tonight, I’d lean toward Brooks. While Hinrich may see more minutes, Brooks is by far the more productive of the two. At his price point, he should reach value with ease. The biggest issue here is the number of attractive point guard options there are tonight.