NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 25th - Page Two
L.A. Clippers at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -3.5, 215 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
| L.A. Clippers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215 |  | Vegas Total | 215 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.75 | Team Proj. | 109.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.68 | Team Pace | 99.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 17 | Opp. Season | 3 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 7 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 13 | 25 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have lost five of their last ten games and are quickly dropping in the Western Conference standings. They will continue to fight for wins until Blake Griffin comes back, but they have a tough matchup against the Rockets tonight. The Clippers are listed as 3.5-point underdogs with their team total set at 105.8 points. DeAndre Jordan is worth a look in tournaments, but it’s hard to justify his price tag with all of the other options available at center tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 38-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
With Blake Griffin out, Paul has to shoulder the load offensively. His usage rate is up and so is his production. He continues to prove that he is matchup-proof, so don’t let a matchup against Patrick Beverley scare you off of him tonight. Paul has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four of his last seven games and has a good chance of reaching that mark again tonight.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Redick (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Redick is one of the better value plays at shooting guard tonight. He has seen an increased role in the offense with Blake Griffin out. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last five games, averaging 25 fantasy points per contest. His minutes are also trending in the right direction, as he has averaged 34 minutes per game during that stretch.
Houston
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 37-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11100, DK: $11000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
As predicted, Harden broke out of his mini-slump with a monster outing against the Wolves. He finished the game with a triple-double en route to a 66 fantasy point performance. He should keep it going tonight against the Clippers, who have struggled to contain elite scorers on the wing this season. Harden is the premier play at shooting guard tonight and with all of the value at point guard and center, it’s easy to fit him in your lineups.
Terrence Jones (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.9)
Jones was inserted into the starting lineup on Monday night and he performed admirably. He racked up 38 fantasy points in only 32 minutes of action. He will remain an excellent fantasy option until Dwight Howard returns to the court. He draws a favorable matchup against Spencer Hawes and the Clippers and this may be the last time that we can target him at this price point.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17)
Once again, Ariza is near the top of the list of suggested plays at small forward. It’s a thin position and there are few players at his price point that see the type of minutes that he does. Ariza has played well over his last eight games, averaging 28 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest.
Philadelphia at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -10.5, 189 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Henson
| Philadelphia | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.50 | Vegas Sprd | -10.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.25 | Team Proj. | 99.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.07 | Team Pace | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | John Henson | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 24 | 10 | 20 | Opp. Season | 22 | 29 | 22 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 25 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 22 | 7 | 26 | 11 | |
Philadelphia
Now it’s being reported that the Sixers were trying to trade Joel Embid for a first-round pick in this year’s draft. I’m not sure you can say you are rebuilding when you continue to trade away all of your pieces. But hey, I’m not a general manager, so what do I know? The Sixers are 10.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bucks. They are only projected to score 89.3 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 31-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Canaan (FD: $3500, DK: $3500 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Canaan is the only Sixers’ player that I will likely have another exposure to tonight. Nerlens Noel has been playing well, but he is a little overpriced for his matchup. Canaan, on the other hand, is still close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He needs roughly 18 fantasy points to reach value, a feat that he can easily accomplish against Michael Carter-Williams and the Bucks.
Milwaukee
Michael Carter-Williams will make his Bucks’ debut tonight. What are the odds that his debut with his new team comes against his former team in the Sixers? While the revenge factor is certainly in play here, I’m not paying up for a player that is 1. being coached by Jason Kidd and 2. making his first start with the team. This game has blowout potential written all over it and the Bucks’ starters may only play the first three quarters. Why take the risk with 11 other games on the schedule?
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 12-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -2, 201.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
| Washington | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.75 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.75 | Team Pace | 97.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 29 | Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 27 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 24 | |
Washington
The Wizards fell short against the Warriors last night and have to get right back at it tonight. They travel to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Wizards are actually underdogs tonight and I don’t disagree with the spread. The Wolves are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, but they have improved dramatically on the offensive end of the floor.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 12-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Marcin Gortat would be in play on a smaller slate, but there is no way I’m taking Gortat when I can target Rudy Gobert against the Lakers at a similar price point. Wall provides great upside tonight though, as Ricky Rubio and the Wolves have struggled to contain opposing point guards all season. He should fly under the radar, making him a strong tournament play tonight.
Garrett Temple (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
If you are looking for a minimum salary punt at shooting guard, Temple is the guy that you are looking for. He will likely draw another start in place of the injured Bradley Beal. He has played well in his last two starts, averaging 19 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action per game.
Minnesota
The Wolves draw a tough matchup on paper, but the Wizards don’t scare me right now. The Wizards have picked up their pace of play recently and it has really hurt their play on the defensive end of the floor. If you look at the DvP rankings from the last seven days, you will see what I’m talking about. The Wizards are also playing in a back-to-back which helps the Wolves’ cause.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 33-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Ricky Rubio (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Rubio was one of my favorite plays on Monday night and he didn’t disappoint, as he finished the game with 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. He has now scored at least 38 fantasy points in each of his last three contests. His price has slowly come up across the industry, but he’s still a bargain on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His minutes and production are both trending upward and he draws a favorable matchup against a Wizards’ teams that has recently struggled on the defensive end of the floor.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Wiggins is one of those players that you love to target because you know that he is going to be force-fed the ball. You also know that he is going to play close to 40 minutes per game. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last six games and is a viable mid-range option at small forward tonight against the Wizards.
Phoenix at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 214 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson—Harris-Gallinari-Arthur-Nurkic
| Phoenix | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.31 | Team Pace | 98.4 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Darrell Arthur | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 25 | Opp. Season | 15 | 23 | 28 | 8 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 19 | 12 | 28 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
Phoenix
The Suns head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in what is one of the most favorable matchups on the board. The Nuggets are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 16th in rebounding differential this season. The Suns are listed as 5-point favorites with their team total set at 109.5 points. Don’t hesitate to target a few Suns’ players tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 20-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Targeting bigs against Denver is an old tradition in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, the Nuggets have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Morris is cheap across the industry and he provides great upside in this matchup. He has an ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he has a sneaky usage rate of 23.4 this season.
Alex Len (FD: $5000, DK: $4900 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Once again, targeting bigs against the Nuggets is never a bad idea in daily fantasy basketball. Len should be able to dominate the paint tonight, plus he is coming off of a strong three-game stretch, where he averaged 31.3 fantasy points per contest.
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
It appears that Bledsoe is going to be the point guard moving forward, with Brandon Knight playing off the ball. Bledsoe has played well in his first two games with his new backcourt partner, scoring 36 and 44 fantasy points. Bledsoe is still relatively cheap across the industry and he is still listed as a shooting guard. This allows us to roster an extra point guard on sites like FanDuel.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Tucker has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 27.5 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Suns head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. The Nuggets have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. At his price point, he is a safe play for cash games and tournaments.
Denver
The Nuggets continue to lose game after game. They are sizable underdogs tonight at home against the Suns. While the matchup is a favorable one, there is only one option that stands out on the Nuggets. The rest of the team can be avoided on a night that features so many other games on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 29-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $4000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Gallinari has played well since being inserted in the starting lineup. Over his last three games, he has averaged 24 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Gallinari also sees a small boost with Wilson Chandler expected to miss tonight’s game.
L.A. Lakers at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Utah -9, 191.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Boozer-Sacre
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| L.A. Lakers | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.3 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.76 | Team Pace | 92.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Carlos Boozer | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 2 | Opp. Season | 30 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 16 | 27 | 4 | 15 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are a tough team to target on a night with a three-game slate, let alone a night with a 12-game slate. They draw a tough matchup against the Jazz, who have held their opponents to the ninth-fewest points per game this season. With Bryon Scott’s deep and inconsistent rotations, the Lakers can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 21-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Utah
Of the seven teams that are not in the playoff picture in the Western Conference, the Jazz have the best record of anyone in the last ten games. Granted, they are only 5-5, but they have been playing some good basketball recently. They should be able to pick up another win tonight in a favorable home game against the Lakers. The Jazz are projected to score 100.3 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average of 95.6.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 14-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8100, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Hayward is the premier play at small forward tonight if you are looking to spend up at the position. The Lakers have allowed more points per game to their opponents than any other team in the NBA this season. Hayward has a high usage rate (25.5) and should be the primary option offensively. If the Lakers can keep this game competitive, Hayward has a realistic shot at 40+ fantasy points tonight.
Rudy Gobert (FD: $5900, DK: $5800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
ALL THE GOBERT! GOBERT OR GO HOME!
I could end the analysis there, but what fun would that be? Gobert has been a monster on the floor this season, averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. That type of production ranks right up there with some of the top centers in the NBA. He is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker and his length allows him plenty of easy scoring opportunities at the rim. Dollar for dollar, he is easily my top play at center tonight.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
With Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward in good spots tonight, Favors will likely fly under the radar. With Enes Kanter shipped out of town, Favors’ minutes are solidified in the rotation. Favors draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers and he has scored at least 33 fantasy points in five of his last six games.