NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Houston at Orlando – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -8.5, 197 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Marble-Frye-Vucevic
| Houston | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.75 | Team Pace | 95.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Devyn Marble | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 30 | Opp. Season | 3 | 11 | 20 | 16 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 3 | |
Houston
The Rockets have won four in a row. They will look to extend their winning streak to five games tonight, as they square off against the Magic in Orlando. The Magic are a slow-paced team, but they struggle on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed their opponents to score an average of 99.7 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 14-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 17.4)
This pick is all about value. This is the cheapest that Ariza has been all season long. While he doesn’t have an extremely high usage in the offense, he is still averaging 37 minutes per game and as we all know, the NBA is all about minutes and opportunity. Ariza has played fairly well recently, averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game over his last five. He is one of the better value plays at small forward tonight.
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $10700, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.7)
Dwight Howard in a revenge game would typically garner some attention, but there are too many good value plays at center tonight. If I’m spending up on a Rockets’ player, I would much rather have it be on Harden. He has an incredibly high usage rate (31.7) and he has 60 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor. The Magic have been stingy against shooting guards this season, but lack a premier shot blocker at the rim. Harden should attack the basket at will.
Orlando
Tobias Harris will not play tonight and Evan Fournier is a game-time decision. Devyn Marble, Victor Oladipo, and Nikola Vucevic will all see a fantasy boost in this one. Overall, this is a poor matchup in terms of potential fantasy production. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 96.9 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 27-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $9200, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Vucevic’s usage rate goes up dramatically when Tobias Harris is not on the floor. Just look at his game the other night against the Bulls. He was the primary option offensively and he finished with 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists. His matchup against Dwight Howard isn’t ideal, but he’s worth a look tonight with Harris out.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Oladipo will also see a small fantasy boost tonight with Tobias Harris out, as he will be asked to carry more of the load offensively. Oladipo has played well over his last five games, averaging 34 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He will likely be defended by James Harden, who has never been known as an elite defender.
San Antonio at Charlotte – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 191 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Daye-Duncan-Splitter
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
| San Antonio | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 93.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.44 | Team Pace | 95.05 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Austin Daye | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 13 | Opp. Season | 18 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 16 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight, so we need to be on full Pop-Alert. There is a good chance that he may rest his veterans in this one. Keep your eye on the player updates throughout the day. Even if the Spurs play their usual starters, you may want to avoid them anyway. We have a full ten-game slate on tap tonight and they are facing a Hornets team that plays at a slow pace.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 15-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte
Lance Stephenson is expected to make his return to the lineup tonight. He will likely come off the bench and play limited minutes, but his return does hurt the value of Gerald Henderson. The Hornets face a tough Spurs defense that is ranked sixth in efficiency this season. There are better matchups to exploit tonight. Kemba Walker would typically be in play here, but I’m not paying a premium for him tonight against the Spurs.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 23-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans at Detroit – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -3.5, 204 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| New Orleans | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.91 | Team Pace | 95.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 5 | 28 | 18 | Opp. Season | 21 | 13 | 26 | 8 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 26 | 4 | 20 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 11 | 25 | 2 | 26 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans head to Detroit to take on a much-improved Pistons team. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should give a major fantasy boost to both Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The matchup against the Pistons isn’t the best on the board, but it’s not the worst either. The Pistons are an average paced team that is ranked 16th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 14-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11100, DK: $11100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
As usual, Davis is one of the top overall fantasy options on the board. The Pistons have really struggled to defend power forwards this season. While most of that has to do with the now-Houston Rocket, Josh Smith, they haven’t been all that great against the position since he left. Davis has scored at least 54 fantasy points in four of his last nine games and has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight. His usage may also go up a bit tonight with Jrue Holiday out.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
There are plenty of reasons to like Evans tonight against the Pistons. He should see a major fantasy boost with Jrue Holiday out and may end up drawing the start at point guard. If that’s the case, he will match up against Brandon Jennings. He should be able to exploit that matchup. While Evans does have much better splits at home this season, Holiday’s absence makes him the top shooting guard play on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Detroit
The Pistons have now won nine of their last ten games. If they keep this up, they will soon find themselves in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they host the Pelicans, who have really struggled defensively this season. They have allowed their opponents to score an average of 101 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 18-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 101
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8300, DK: $8200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Monroe has been terrific since the Pistons decided to cut Josh Smith. Now that he is seeing starter’s minutes, his fantasy production has gone through the roof. Over his last five games, he is averaging 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in every game during that stretch. He does draw a tough matchup against Anthony Davis, but I’m expecting another quality outing from Monroe.
Brandon Jennings (FD: $8100, DK: $8100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Jennings is not on my radar for cash games. While the strategy can backfire now and then, it often pays off in the long run due to his inconsistency. It’s hard for me to spend over $8,000 on a player that has only topped 30 minutes two times in his last eight games. Jennings does deserve consideration as a tournament play though. The Pelicans have struggled against point guards this season and will be without Jrue Holiday.
Memphis at Brooklyn – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6, 192 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Lopez-Plumlee
| Memphis | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.12 | Team Pace | 94.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Brook Lopez | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 8 | Opp. Season | 5 | 23 | 12 | 19 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 27 | 11 | |
Memphis
It’s official, the Grizzlies have acquired Jeff Green. He should be a perfect fit in Memphis. He’s expected to be available to play, but it hasn’t been announced whether he will start or come off the bench. His presence will hurt the value of both Courtney Lee and Tony Allen moving forward. Tonight, the Grizzlies square off against the Nets in a game that features a low total. There are better games to target in daily fantasy.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 16-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Conley was terrific in Zach Randolph’s absence. He continued his excellent play in Randolph’s first game back by putting up 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists against the Suns. Tonight he matches up against the Nets, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Brooklyn
The Nets will be without Kevin Garnett tonight, as he was suspended for a game for head-butting Dwight Howard. (Is it just me or does everyone seem to have it out for Dwight?) The Nets will also be without Deron Williams. This is a tough fantasy matchup, as the Grizzlies play at a slow pace and own a stingy defense.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 26-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6300, DK: $6900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 27.2)
Lopez should draw the start for Kevin Garnett tonight. The matchup against the Grizzlies isn’t ideal, but we get Lopez at a discount. As a starter this season, Lopez is averaging 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. He should be able to post a similar fantasy outing tonight against the Grizzlies.
Philadelphia at Toronto – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -15, 201.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-J. Johnson-A. Johnson-Valanciunas
| Philadelphia | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 15.0 | Vegas Sprd | -15.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.3 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.06 | Team Pace | 96.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 7 | Opp. Season | 15 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 25 | 13 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers will be without Tony Wroten tonight, as he sprained his knee and did not even make the trip to Toronto. His absence gives a small boost to both Michael Carter-Williams and K.J. McDaniels. The Sixers have a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Raptors, but they are 15-point underdogs in this one. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, especially considering the fact that they will be playing on the second half of a back-to-back.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 25-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8200, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 27.2)
MCW is better without Tony Wroten and Wroten is better without MCW. The two are ball-dominant guards that hurt each other’s fantasy production. With Wroten out tonight, MCW’s usage in the offense should go up. His price is at a very affordable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards this season. The only issue here is a potential blowout.
Toronto
The Raptors are hoping to have DeMar DeRozan back in the lineup tonight. Coach Dwane Casey said that he will likely return tonight or on Friday against the Hawks. He will be on a minutes restriction when he does return, but he will still hurt the fantasy appeal of both Terrence Ross and James Johnson. Toronto are huge favorites at home tonight against the Sixers. It’s a favorable matchup, but this is a game that could be out of hand by halftime.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 7-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jonas Valanciunas (FD: $6600, DK: $6200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Valanciunas is coming off of a huge fantasy outing against the Pistons. He finished the game with 31 points and 12 rebounds. He will look to build on that performance tonight in a favorable matchup against the Sixers. On the season, the Sixers are ranked 19th against centers and dead last in rebounding differential. Valanciunas is a terrific tournament play.
James Johnson (FD: $4900, DK: $4900 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Johnson makes a nice upside play tonight, as long as he remains in the starting lineup. DeMar DeRozan could make his return tonight, but even if he does, he may come off the bench. Johnson has been very productive as a starter this season, averaging 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.