NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 14th - Page Two
Atlanta at Boston – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -6, 204 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Zeller
| Atlanta | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.00 | Team Proj. | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.45 | Team Pace | 99.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 20 | Opp. Season | 1 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 29 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 1 | 24 | |
Atlanta
Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, and DeMarre Carroll all got the night off last night, forcing a last-minute DFS scramble. All three should be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawks head to Boston to take on the Celtics. This is a terrific matchup for the Hawks. The Celtics are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 103.8 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 13-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $8300, DK: $8500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Teague got the night off last night to rest. He should be ready to go for tonight’s game against the Celtics. He has been playing his best basketball of the season, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. He also draws a nice matchup against a Celtics defense that has allowed the 12th most fantasy points to point guards this season. While the C’s have been much better against point guards since the departure of Rajon Rondo, Teague has played well in some tough matchups in his recent stretch.
Paul Millsap (FD: $8000, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Millsap sat on the bench last night while the Hawks took down the Sixers. He should be well-rested and ready to go for tonight’s game against the Celtics. In terms of the matchup, there are few more favorable than this one. The Celtics are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season. The Celtics are also ranked 19th in rebounding differential. Millsap has a high floor and a high ceiling, making him a great play in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston
The Celtics have lost seven of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the East. Tonight they host the Hawks, who just so happen to have the best record in the entire conference. The Celtics are six-point underdogs in this game that features a total of 204 points. The Hawks have been terrific defensively since the start of December. This is not a matchup that I want to have much exposure to tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 30-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jae Crowder (FD: $4600, DK: $4600 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
Crowder is coming off of a big game against the Pelicans. He filled up the stat sheet en route to a 42 fantasy point outing. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he’s still a decent value play at small forward. He will draw another start tonight against the Hawks.
Kelly Olynyk (FD: $5000, DK: $3000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
I’m not sure if it’s something in the pricing algorithm or if DraftKings just likes to keep things interesting, but every now and then they will list a quality player at minimum salary. Tonight that player is Mr. Olynyk. He is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game this season and has 30 fantasy point type of upside. I’ll take that type of value any day of the week.
Washington at Chicago – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -5.5, 194 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
| Washington | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.50 | Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.25 | Team Proj. | 99.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.54 | Team Pace | 96.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 6 | 23 | 13 | 29 | Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 29 | 9 | 16 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 14 | |
Washington
The Wizards picked up a win over the Spurs last night and now have to fly to Chicago to take on the Bulls in the second half of a back-to-back. This game has a total of only 194 points and is expected to be a somewhat low-scoring affair. The Bulls are ranked tenth in defensive efficiency and fourth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 26-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nene Hilario (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Nene’s playing time is slowly increasing. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 23 fantasy points in 26.2 minutes of action per game. He may see some extended playing time tonight against a Bulls team that has one of the best front-court combinations in the entire NBA. He needs around 26 fantasy points to reach value, which is certainly in reach.
Chicago
The Bulls are currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, but could pass the Wizards with a win over them tonight. Vegas has the Bulls listed as 5.5-point favorites in this one. It’s difficult to find any standout fantasy options on the Bulls tonight, as the Wizards are ranked in the top 12 against PGs, SGs, PFs, and centers this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 26-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8900, DK: $8700 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
The one position that the Wizards have struggled to defend this season is opposing small forwards. If Mike Dunleavy is out again tonight, Kirk Hinrich will draw the start at shooting guard and Jimmy Butler will slide over and start at small forward. He has established himself as one of the best all-around two-guards in the NBA and deserves all of the recognition that he is getting.
Dallas at Denver – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 214.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Dallas | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0 | Vegas Sprd | 0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.25 | Team Proj. | 107.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.06 | Team Pace | 98.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 24 | 4 | 27 | 23 | Opp. Season | 29 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 26 | 25 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks picked up an overtime win against the Kings last night and now have to turn around and face the Nuggets in Denver. There is a little cause for concern with Dirk Nowitzki, but the rest of the starters should see their usual complement of minutes tonight. This is a terrific matchup, as the Nuggets are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency. They have allowed their opponents to score an average of 103.6 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 17-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7500, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Ellis is coming off of a monster fantasy outing against the Kings last night. He finished the game with 28 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has now scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. The best part is that his price has actually come down a bit on FanDuel. At his price point, he only needs to score around 32 fantasy points to reach value. That’s a feat that he can certainly accomplish against the Nuggets, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6900, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
The Mavericks are in a back-to-back situation, but that shouldn’t affect Chandler at all. He has actually averaged more playing time in the second half of back-to-backs than he has in the rest of his games this season. Targeting big men against the Nuggets is always a good strategy in daily fantasy basketball and that’s not going to change tonight. The Nuggets are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.
Denver
The Nuggets are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight. Vegas has this one listed as a pick ‘em game with the total set at 214 points. That means that we can expect a close, fast-paced, high scoring game. Those are typically the perfect conditions for a storm or fantasy goodness. Don’t be afraid to target a few players from this game.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 27-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8900, DK: $8700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dollar for dollar, Lawson may be my favorite point guard play tonight. He is playing some of his best basketball of the season, averaging 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game over his last nine outings. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards this season. This game has the highest total of the night and the Nuggets are projected to score 107 points. Lawson should have his fingerprints all over this game.
Jusuf Nurkic (FD: $5200, DK: $5700 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Between Hassan Whiteside and Jusuf Nurkic, the hype machine is in overdrive. Nurkic has been ultra-productive this season, but he is yet to see starter’s minutes. Even in limited playing time, Nurkic has averaged 31 fantasy points in only 22 minutes of action per game over his last six. He has similar upside as Whiteside and is actually listed at the same price point. It may not be a bad idea to split these two across your lineups tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6600, DK: $7100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Faried is in the same category as Brandon Jennings. I have been burned by him too many times that he is now strictly a GPP option. Faried has shown that he has terrific upside, but he also has a very low floor. This makes him a great target in tournaments and a risky play in cash games.
Miami at Golden State – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Chalmers-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Miami | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.50 | Vegas Sprd | -12.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 108 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.57 | Team Pace | 100.78 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 1 | Opp. Season | 8 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 8 | |
Miami
While the Heat did pick up a win over the Lakers last night, Dwyane Wade suffered a hamstring injury. He is not expected to play tonight and this is an injury that could cause him to miss a few games. A short-handed Heat team has their hands full with the Warriors tonight. Vegas has the Heat listed as 12.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 204 points. This is typically a situation that I would avoid completely, but there are actually two options that stand out in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 30-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $5200, DK: $5700 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
The Whiteside hype is real people. He has been terrific in his last seven games, averaging 31 fantasy points in an average of only 22 minutes per game. During that stretch, he has averaged 1.39 fantasy points per minute. If he sees 25-30 minutes tonight against the Warriors, he should easily reach and exceed value. He will likely be a very popular play at center tonight. The best part is that his playing time won’t be tied to the outcome of the game. If anything, he may see some garbage time in a blowout.
Mario Chalmers (FD: $4500, DK: $4300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Dwyane Wade is expected to miss tonight’s game against the Warriors, which opens the door for Chalmers as a viable fantasy option. Chalmers was terrific in Wade’s absence earlier this season, as he becomes the primary ball-handler in the Heat’s offense. His price is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who have allowed ninth most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors picked up an easy win over the Jazz last night. None of the starters played more than 30 minutes, so fatigue shouldn’t be a big factor in this one. The Warriors are huge favorites at home though, so there is the potential for a blowout. It’s hard to pay up for any of the Warriors tonight in a game that could be over by the end of the third quarter. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all in play for tournaments, but I will be avoiding the Warriors in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 17-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers at Portland – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -3.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
| L.A. Clippers | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 21 | Opp. Season | 2 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 25 | 21 | 19 | 15 | |
L.A. Clippers
Two of the best teams in the Western Conference square off tonight in Portland. The Clippers are 3.5-point underdogs in a game that features a relatively high total of 206 points. The Blazers have been great defensively this season though, which makes this matchup a little less appealing. The Clippers are only projected to score 101.5 points in this one, which is markedly lower than their season average of 106.4.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 30-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9900, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Paul is one of those players that tends to play up to the level of his competition. I love targeting him when he faces another top notch point guard and Damian Lillard certainly fits the bill. Paul is under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, which puts him in play on both sites.
Portland
The Blazers are currently tied for the second-best record in the NBA at 30-8. They have won eight games in a row and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Tonight they square off against a fast-paced Clippers team that is ranked 17th in defensive efficiency. They have allowed their opponents to score an average of 100 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 25-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 100
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Chris Kaman (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
The caveman is coming off of a season-high 32 minutes against the Lakers. He seems to be adjusting to his role as a starter and should be considered one of the top plays at center. Speaking of that, I sure wish I could play five centers tonight. Anyway, the Clippers are ranked 16th against centers this season and Kaman shouldn’t have much of a problem reaching value at his price point.
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9800, DK: $10000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.1)
Aldridge squares off against Blake Griffin tonight. Of the two, I give the edge to Aldridge. He is a much better defender. Aldridge hasn’t scored more than 40 fantasy points in any of his last four games, but should be able to break out of his mini-slump tonight. While he is in play, if I’m paying up for a power forward, I’d rather spend a little bit more and take Anthony Davis.