NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Portland at Cleveland – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5.5, 204 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Barton-Aldridge-Kaman
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Portland | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.83 | Team Pace | 94.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 23 | 30 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Season | 23 | 13 | 16 | 2 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 17 | 25 | 4 | 4 | |
Portland
The Blazers head to Cleveland to take on the red-hot Cavaliers tonight. They are hoping to have Nicolas Batum back in the lineup, but he is listed as questionable with his wrist injury. The Blazers are 5.5-point underdogs in this game. The Cavaliers have not been great defensively this season, but they have improved on that end of the floor during their winning streak.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 26-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9600, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
Aldridge is going to delay surgery on his thumb until after the season ends. He’s close to an elite play tonight, but on such a large slate, there are much better values at the position. Aldridge still deserves consideration though, as he faces Kevin Love and the Cavaliers, who are not that stout down low. They are ranked 18th against power forwards on the season.
Wesley Matthews (FD: $6000, DK: $6100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Matthews is coming off of a terrific four-game stretch, where he has scored at least 27 fantasy points in every game. The Cavaliers have struggled to defend wing players this season and Matthews may see a small fantasy boost if Nicolas Batum is forced to sit out another game.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won seven games in a row and are quickly climbing up the standings in the East. They have a tough test ahead of them tonight in the Blazers, but Vegas has the Cavaliers listed as sizable favorites. The Blazers have been very good defensively this season, ranking third in defensive efficiency and fourth in points allowed per game. With ten other games on the schedule, there is only one player that I am heavily targeting on the Cavaliers tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 32-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Editor’s Note: LeBron James (wrist) is considered a game-time decision for tonight.
LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $10700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.8)
LeBron has taken over offensively and it’s no surprise that the Cavaliers have been better for it. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 31 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He is about as matchup-proof as they come and I’m not overly concerned about his matchup against the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
None
Detroit at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -7, 194 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Detroit | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.10 | Team Pace | 98.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 26 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 5 | 16 | 23 | 28 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 19 | 13 | 29 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 26 | 12 | 8 | 30 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but they are still only two and a half games out of the playoffs in the East. They have a great chance to end their three-game slide tonight against the Sixers, who have only won eight games all season. As usual, the Sixers provide us with a great matchup to exploit. They are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 8-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8600, DK: $8500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Monroe has been terrific over his last ten games. In fact, he has played so well that his 17 point, 12 rebound performance was his worst fantasy outing during that stretch. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in seven of his last ten and draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers. On the season, the Sixers have allowed the most fantasy points of any team to opposing power forwards.
D.J. Augustin (FD: $6000, DK: $5800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
The Pistons are looking to trade for another point guard, but Augustin is trying to prove that he can handle the duties on his own. After dropping 50 fantasy points against the Raptors, he backed it up with 36 fantasy points against the Cavaliers last night. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of his last two starts and should see a similar complement of minutes tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8400, DK: $8200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Putting two contrasting terms together is an easy way to make an oxymoron. Drummond and cash games = oxymoron. He has a very low floor and is an unreliable option at center. That said, he does have tremendous upside and is facing the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Fire up Drummond as a tournament play, but avoid him in cash games.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are in danger of losing their seventh game in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Pistons. The Sixers are seven-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 194 points. Given the low spread, we have to assume that Vegas expects Michael Carter-Williams to play tonight. There has not been an official update on his status though, so make sure to check the injury news throughout the day.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 17-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
The Sixers are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight. However, if you want to have some exposure to Philly, Covington is a fine value play tonight. He only needs to score around 26 fantasy points to meet value expectations and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.
Brooklyn at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -13.5, 194 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Brooklyn | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.34 | Team Pace | 96.05 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 20 | 25 | 6 | 23 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 25 | 29 | 16 | 25 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets will take their turn at trying to end the Hawks winning streak that is now up to 16 games. Vegas doesn’t have a ton of confidence in the Nets though, as they are listed as 13.5-point underdogs. This is not a favorable matchup for the Nets at all. The Hawks have allowed the fewest points per game this season at only 96.2 and have shut down much better teams than the Nets.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 37-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.2 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
It’s rare that I talk about how bad a matchup is and then suggest a player from that team. The reason Johnson is listed here is simple: his price is depressed and he is facing his former team. Everyone loves a revenge game, especially when you can take that player at a discount. Johnson is extremely cheap on DraftKings, where he will also get a bonus for each three-pointer that he makes.
Atlanta
The Hawks have won 16 straight games. They have accomplished that feat with a well-balanced offense and a dominant defense. They are sizable favorites at home tonight against the Nets in a game that has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Hawks have a terrific bench that can take over a game at any time. Basically, don’t get carried away by rostering too many Hawks tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 18-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Kyle Korver (FD: $4900, DK: $4800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
This pick is all about value. Korver is under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is his lowest price point of the season. This is a great time to buy low on Korver, as he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Korver could realistically reach 6x-7x salary tonight and can be targeted in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8100, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Millsap has scored at least 42 fantasy points in each of his last two games and draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. The only issue here is that it’s tough to pay such a hefty price tag for a player that may end up sitting the entire 4th quarter.
Sacramento at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 206 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins-
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Sacramento | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.26 | Team Pace | 95.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 14 | Opp. Season | 22 | 29 | 9 | 20 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 29 | 17 | 22 | 24 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have had a couple of extra days of rest after their game on Monday night was postponed due to the blizzard in New York. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring affair. The Kings are seven-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 206 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 30-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11100, DK: $10900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.8)
Cousins is arguably the top overall play at any position tonight. He should be well rested and ready to go for tonight’s contest against the Raptors, who are slightly below average in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential this season. Cousins has the ability to post 60+ fantasy points every time he steps out onto the floor and Coach Corbin is not afraid to play him upwards of 40 minutes. There is enough value to easily fit him into your lineups tonight.
Rudy Gay (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
It’s the evening of revenge games. Gay heads back to Toronto where he played a total of 51 games over the course of two seasons. The two did not part ways on great terms, so Gay will have a little added motivation to play well tonight. In addition to the revenge factor, we also get to target Gay at a discount. He is under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a high usage rate in the Kings’ offense at 26.4 and the Raptors have struggled to defend wing players this season.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Collison is back to being his reliable self. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and has averaged 36 minutes of playing time during that stretch. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who are ranked 19th against point guards this season.
Toronto
The Raptors are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Kings. The Raptors find themselves in a favorable spot tonight, as the Kings are ranked 26th in points allowed per game. If you look at the Defense vs. Position table above, you will see plenty of blue and green boxes. The biggest issue with the Raptors is their depth. It makes it difficult to predict individual production on a nightly basis.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 16-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
After scoring a combined 30 fantasy points in his previous three games, DeRozan has bounced back nicely with a combined 82 fantasy points in his last two outings. His price across the industry is down, which provides us a great opportunity to buy low on the prolific scorer. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Patterson (FD: $4600, DK: $4000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
Pat-Pat is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, where he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action per game. He still comes off the bench, but his minutes are trending upward and he draws a favorable matchup against the Kings. He’s an appealing contrarian play in tournaments tonight.
Denver at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -6.5, 202 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| Denver | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.50 | Team Pace | 94.28 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Season | 17 | 26 | 20 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 10 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 14 | 27 | 28 | 13 | |
Denver
The Nuggets have lost seven games in a row. They are also one of the worst road teams in the NBA with a paltry 6-15 record. They are 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Pelicans provide an average matchup for the Nuggets. They are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and sixth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 24-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $9000, DK: $8700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Lawson finds himself in a familiar predicament. While he has a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, he is not a top play at his position. Point guard is one of the deepest positions in daily fantasy basketball. Lawson is ranked outside of my top five plays at the position and it will likely be the same for most gamers. That could lead to a very low percentage of ownership in tournaments.
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5900, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
I can never seem to predict what Chandler is going to do on a nightly basis. He’s rarely a target of mine in cash games, because he has such a low floor that he can really hurt your cash game lineups. That said, he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three straight games and he draws a decent matchup against the Pelicans tonight.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have really played well at home this season with a 15-7 record. If they were better on the road, they would easily be in the Western Conference playoff picture. They draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Nuggets, who are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. The Nuggets also struggle on the defensive end of the floor, as they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 104.5 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11400, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Davis is right there with DeMarcus Cousins as the top overall fantasy option on the board tonight. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in five of his last six games and gets one of the best matchups in all of fantasy sports. He is facing the soft frontcourt of the Nuggets, who are ranked 27th against power forwards and 25th against centers this season.
Eric Gordon (FD: $5600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.2)
Gordon has really stepped up in Jrue Holiday’s absence. In the eight games with Holiday on the sidelines, Gordon has averaged 26.4 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action per game. He should play well again tonight in an uptempo game against the Nuggets, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Evans is only listed as a secondary play because of his expensive price tag. It’s hard to pay that much for Evans tonight, especially if you are already rostering Anthony Davis and/or Eric Gordon. Evans does make a nice tournament play though, as he has shown that he has shown the ability to post 50+ fantasy point outings.