NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 28th - Page Two
Dallas at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -4, 207.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Dallas | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.75 | Team Proj. | 105.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.79 | Team Pace | 98.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 11 | 22 | 15 | Opp. Season | 26 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 30 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 3 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks were dominated on their home floor by a Mike Conley-less Grizzlies team last night. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Rockets in Houston. The Mavericks are four-point underdogs in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. The Rockets have been stout defensively this season, but aren’t nearly as good without Dwight Howard on the floor. If Howard is ruled out, give a slight boost to the Mavericks’ team as a whole.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 31-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Nowitzki is a lot like David West in that he rarely has bad fantasy outings. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world, but he is basically a lock for 25+ fantasy points every time he takes the floor. He’s a very safe cash game option tonight against the Rockets, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Monta Ellis (FD: $7800, DK: $7100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.6)
Ellis is the exact opposite of Dirk Nowitzki. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but a very low floor. In his last eight games, his fantasy outings have ranged from 9 to 56 fantasy points. Until he can provide a higher floor, I will continue to use him in tournaments and avoid him in cash games. He does draw an appealing matchup against James Harden and the Rockets though.
Houston
The Rockets may be without Dwight Howard again tonight. He tweaked his ankle in practice yesterday and is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he is forced to sit, give a slight boost to James Harden, Donatas Motiejunas, and Josh Smith. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one for the Rockets. The Mavericks are a fast-paced team that is ranked 23rd in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 30-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 102 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11400, DK: $11100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
Harden has been unreal in his last four games, averaging 37 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He has now scored at least 50 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. The Mavericks don’t have anyone that can stay in front of Harden and he is easily the premier play at shooting guard tonight. Additionally, Harden will see a small fantasy boost if Dwight Howard is unable to suit up.
Secondary Plays
TBD – If Dwight Howard is ruled out tonight, Donatas Motiejunas, Josh Smith, and Trevor Ariza would all become secondary fantasy plays against the Mavericks.
Boston at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -4.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Bass
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Wiggins-Young-Dieng-Pekovic
| Boston | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.50 | Vegas Sprd | 4.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.01 | Team Pace | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 28 | Opp. Season | 25 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 23 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 19 | 20 | |
Boston
The Celtics are still in the running for the last 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, but they have lost six of their last ten and are losing ground to the Pistons and Hornets. They head to Minnesota to take on a T-Wolves team that will likely meet them in the Celtics in the lottery. If there was ever a game to load up on the Celtics, this would be it. The T-Wolves are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 7-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $5100, DK: $4900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 22)
Since entering the starting lineup, Bass has averaged 31 fantasy points in 30 minute of action per game. The Celtics have no choice but to play Bass big minutes, as Kelly Olynyk is out for the foreseeable future. Bass’ price has come up across the industry, but he still only needs around 25 fantasy points to reach value. He’s more than capable of that against the T-Wolves tonight.
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6700, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Sullinger is a borderline elite play in my eyes, but there are so many other viable options at power forward that I don’t find myself with many of his shares tonight. Sullinger has played well over his last ten games, averaging 31 fantasy points per outings. He also draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who do not defend the paint well.
Minnesota
Mo Wiliams has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Celtics, which means Zach LaVine will draw the start at point guard. Also, Kevin Martin is expected to make his return to the lineup. It will be interesting to see if the T-Wolves bring him off the bench or if they decide to sit one of their three bigs. Either way, it will likely cut into the production of both Andrew Wiggins and Thaddeus Young, who have been carrying the load offensively.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 16-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6800, DK: $6400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Even if Kevin Martin is in the starting lineup tonight, I have a hard time seeing the T-Wolves sending Young to the bench. Gorgui Dieng or Nikola Pekovic would make more sense, given the way that Young has been playing. Over his last two games, he has scored at least 40 fantasy points and has played at least 40 minutes. My hope is that he will start at power forward, which is a position that the Celtics have been awful against this season.
Zach LaVine (FD: $3700, DK: $3000 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
LaVine is one of the strongest value plays on the board tonight. Even though he hasn’t had a ton of huge outings this season, he’s a very capable scorer and distributor. He has a fairly high usage rate of 20.4 and will likely see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight with Mo Williams and Ricky Rubio both out. At close to minimum salary, there is little risk in rostering LaVine tonight.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Earlier reports had already ruled out Kevin Martin. Now that he is expected to play, I’m not as high on Wiggins as I was earlier, but he should still see all of the playing time that he can handle in a fast-paced game against the Celtics.
Oklahoma City at New York – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -9, 198.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Hardaway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
| Oklahoma City | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.75 | Team Proj. | 94.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.16 | Team Pace | 92.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 21 | Opp. Season | 27 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 10 | |
Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Knicks. Russell Westbrook is the biggest beneficiary in his absence, as his usage rate should be through the roof tonight. Serge Ibaka, Perry Jones, and Dion Waiters will all see an uptick in minutes and/or production as well. The Thunder draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed their opponents to score an average of 100.8 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 8-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10800, DK: $10400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 36.4)
Westbrook was a big disappointment in this spot the other night, but should bounce back in a big way against the Knicks. Not only will he have an insanely high usage rate in this game, but he will be playing in Madison Square Garden, where superstars love to play. Westbrook is easily the top point guard on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7100, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Ibaka has posted three straight double-doubles for the first time this season. He doesn’t necessarily see a huge boost offensively with Kevin Durant out, but he may see a few extra shot attempts. He also gets to face a makeshift Knicks’ frontcourt that consists of Jason Smith, Louis Amundson, Cole Aldrich, and Quincy Acy.
New York
The Knicks will be without Amar’e Stoudemire tonight. They may also be without Jose Calderon. He is currently listed as questionable, but the Knicks’ beat writers seem to think he’s a little closer to doubtful. The injuries to the Knicks should open up big minutes for the likes of Langston Galloway, Tim Hardaway, and Jason Smith.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 23-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $4800, DK: $4300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Jose Calderon’s status for tonight is in doubt, which means Galloway will likely draw the start at point guard. He has played well recently, averaging 28 fantasy points per game over his last four. The Knicks have officially signed him for the rest of the season. Galloway offers great value at his price point tonight against the Thunder, especially on DraftKings ($4,300).
Jason Smith (FD: $4200, DK: $3900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
With Amar’e Stoudemire out, Smith will continue to see extended playing time in the Knicks’ frontcourt. He has made the most of his opportunity to start, averaging 24 fantasy points per game over his last four. He should be able to reach value with ease tonight against the Thunder.
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony (FD: $9600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.7)
Anthony has had five days of rest since his last game. There hasn’t been an official update, but we can safely assume that he will be in lineup tonight against the Thunder. Anthony has scored at least 41 fantasy points in each of his last three games and should be the focal point of the Knicks’ offense tonight.
Charlotte at San Antonio – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 189.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Roberts-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Charlotte | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.25 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.03 | Team Pace | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brian Roberts | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 18 | Opp. Season | 7 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 20 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 12 | |
Charlotte
This is game that we may want to avoid altogether. There are ten other games on the schedule that feature much better matchups. The Hornets are 13-point underdogs tonight against the Spurs in a game that could easily be over by the end of the third quarter. The Spurs have been terrific defensively this season, holding their opponents to an average of 97.4 points per game. I’ll be avoiding the Hornets in all league formats tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 29-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs are large favorites at home against the Hornets, who are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. A potential blowout that may be played at a very slow pace is not one that I want to target. Coach Popovich is not going to play his starters any more than absolutely necessary. I’ll be avoiding the Spurs completely tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 19-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -7, 199 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| L.A. Clippers | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.46 | Team Pace | 92.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 2 | Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 15 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 6 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have won five games in a row and eight of their last ten. Tonight they travel to Utah to take on the Jazz in a game that has a much lower spread than you might think. The Clippers are only 7-point favorites in this one. While the low spread is encouraging, this isn’t the most friendly matchup for fantasy production. The Jazz are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and have been very good on the glass, ranking 3rd in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 16-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan, are all in play tonight against the Jazz. However, I do not have them ranked in the top five plays at each of their respective positions.
Utah
Was anyone else burned by the 2.2 fantasy points that Dante Exum put up the other night? I know the NBA is tough, but C’MON MAN! Coach Snyder said that he would not overreact to one bad outing, which means Exum will likely draw another start tonight against the Clippers. Overall, this is a pretty average matchup. The Clippers are ranked right around the league average in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 31-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7800, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Hayward comes into tonight’s game on the heels of a terrific three-game stretch, where he has averaged 40 fantasy points per game. He has seen a nice boost in usage with Dante Exum in the lineup, as Exum often plays off the ball and spots up for threes. Assuming Exum remains in the lineup, Hayward will be a solid play at small forward against the Clippers, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.
Secondary Plays
None