NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Oklahoma City at Miami
- Vegas Line – MIA (-3.5), 203 O/U
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Oklahoma City
This may be the most anticipated game so far this season, at least for me. We have the two best players in the NBA facing off and they are both in very different spotlights as far as the media is concerned. Kevin Durant is getting all of the accolades and LeBron James is getting criticism of coasting through the season even though he is posting very similar numbers to those of the past few seasons.
The Heat are 3.5 point favorites tonight, but they do own the better defense of the two teams. The Heat are ranked 4th or better at defending PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s. While Thabo Sefolosha is never really a fantasy option, this does hurt the value for Reggie Jackson. Chalmers is a very underrated defender. If you are targeting anyone other than Durant in this one, I recommend Serge Ibaka. The Heat like to play small ball and Ibaka could get some time at the 5 tonight.
- Kevin Durant – Durant is matchup proof and he has more confidence in his game than he ever has before. While LeBron is a great defender, good offense beats good defense and Durant is going to get his numbers tonight. In their past meetings, Durant has averaged 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. I think he tops those numbers tonight as those numbers were with Westbrook in the lineup and Durant is responsible for more of the offense without him.
Miami
The Heat are in a similar position to the Thunder tonight. This is all about the two stars and role players may end up taking a back seat in this game. Before we get into the picks, it’s important to note that Dwyane Wade is listed as a game-time decision once again. We likely won’t know his status until closer to tip-off, but if he ends up sitting out, give a slight fantasy boost to Ray Allen, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh.
The Thunder have been very consistent defensively this season. They are ranked 7th or better at defending SF’s, PF’s, and Centers over the last 15 days. This hurts the value of Chris Bosh, but my guess is that Bosh will be matched up with Ibaka often and we will see Perkins get very limited minutes.
- LeBron James – We have been waiting and waiting for LeBron James to have a monster fantasy performance. He hasn’t topped 50 actual points yet, he hasn’t posted a single triple-double, and he hasn’t even taken over games like he has in the past. With all of the criticism that he is getting couple with all of the good publicity that Durant is getting, LeBron has to be pumped up for this matchup. I think we see him post his first triple-double of the season.
Orlando at Toronto
- Vegas Line – TOR (-10), 194.5 O/U
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Salmons-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Orlando
The Magic continue to falter on the road. They have now lost something like 10 straight road games by an average of double-digit points per game. They got blown out by the Pistons last night and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them get blown out tonight in Toronto. These teams are heading in opposite directions and until Nikola Vucevic comes back, the Magic will continue to struggle.
In addition to the blowout factor, the Magic have a less than favorable matchup. The Raptors have been solid defensively this season and rank in the top 7 against every position on the floor except for SG’s. I highly recommend avoiding all Magic players for cash games, but I guess you could take a deep flier on Victor Oladipo in a GPP.
Toronto
The Raptors have won 7 of their last 11 games and are really starting to gel. The main question for them tonight is the status of DeMar DeRozan. He had to sit out their last game and he’s currently listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. If he ends up sitting out, give a nice fantasy boost to Terrence Ross and Greivis Vasquez.
The Magic have really struggled defensively without their defensive anchor in the lineup. The Magic are now ranked 17th or worse at defending every position on the floor so all five starters for the Raptors have favorable matchups. Even in a juicy matchup against the Magic front-court, I will be avoiding the Raptors’ bigs tonight. There are too many players fighting for minutes right now, especially if Hansbrough makes his return tonight.
- Kyle Lowry – Lowry seems to have broken out of that mini-slump that he was in. He has averaged over 40 FP’s per game over the last 3 and has a favorable matchup tonight against Nelson and the Magic. Lowry should fill up all areas of the stat sheet tonight. My only concern here is that I don’t want to pay up for Lowry and have him sit the entire 4th quarter if this game turns into a blowout.
Detroit at Atlanta
THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED. BE SURE TO AVOID ALL HAWKS/PISTONS IN LINEUPS
Philadelphia at Boston
- Vegas Line – BOS (-3.5), 204.5 O/U
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass
Philadelphia
The Sixers and Celtics are two very different teams. The Sixers average 102 possessions per game while the Celtics average only 95 possessions per game. The pace of play will likely end up being somewhere in the middle of those averages. If that’s the case, we can expect the Sixers to see less possessions than their season average and the Celtics to see more possessions than their season average. As a whole, give a slight boost to the Celtics fantasy values and a slight dip to the Sixers fantasy values.
The Celtics were struggling defensively, but it appears that they have righted the ship of late. They are ranked 16th or better against every position on the floor over the last 15 days. This is a tough game to predict for the Sixers because there aren’t any matchups that appear favorable. Michael Carter-Williams will be locked up with Rondo, Evan Turner will be defended by Green, and Thaddeus Young will be locked up in a physical matchup with either Bass or Sullinger.
- Spencer Hawes – Hawes is the one Sixers’ player that has a favorable matchup. He will be defended by a combination of Sullinger, Humphries, and Olynyk. I don’t hate any of those matchups. Hawes has scored 29+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games and should top that mark tonight. For my money, Hawes is the only viable play on the Sixers.
Boston
The Celtics have the equivalent matchup of facing a bad pitcher in Coors Field. In case you don’t play fantasy baseball, that means they have as good of a matchup as you are going to find. The Sixers not only play at the league’s fastest pace, but they also have historically bad defense. The Sixers are ranked 27th or worse against every position on the floor.
Now we get to the hard part. Which of these Celtics can we trust in our cash games? Jeff Green is everyone’s least favorite fantasy player, Rajon Rondo may not play in a back to back and even if he does he is on a minutes restriction, Jared Sullinger has been nowhere to be found, and the Celtics have been rolling with the hot hand at Center which seems to change every night. This is definitely a tough one. Of the bunch, Jeff Green is my favorite, but I feel like after writing him off 10 times already this season, I should actually stick to it. Maybe the right answer is to take the cheaper Gerald Wallace.
Phoenix at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – PHO (-8), 201 O/U
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
Phoenix
The Suns are 8 point favorites tonight against the struggling Bucks. Over the last 15 days, the Bucks are ranked below average at defending every position on the floor. They have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the paint this season and I think you can make a case for each of the three Suns bigs: Miles Plumlee, Markieff Morris, and Channing Frye. I will likely be using each sparingly across my GPP lineups.
Other than the bigs, I don’t love the matchup for any of the other Suns players. Goran Dragic will be locked up with Brandon Knight who is one of the better defenders in the league. Dragic only managed to put up 25 FP’s in their first meeting. Gerald Green is at his best when he can shoot over smaller defenders, but that won’t be the case with Giannis defending him. Not only that, but Barbosa has been cutting into his production.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are a team that cannot be trusted in fantasy games and it is all because of one man: Larry Drew. Drew has the oddest rotations in the NBA and often takes out his starters for no apparent reason. Right now, Brandon Knight is the only player that is seeing anything close to consistent minutes, but even he is hard to trust in cash games because Drew is so quick to pull his starters out.
On a night with 9 other games, I don’t want the fate of my fantasy teams resting in the hands of Larry Drew. If that means missing out on a good play or two, I’m willing to take that trade. There are a couple of injury notes before we move on. Larry Sanders will be back for tonight’s game, but O.J. Mayo will miss another game with an illness.