NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 11th - Page Two
L.A. Clippers at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7, 211 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
| L.A. Clippers | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 109 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.74 | Team Pace | 97.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 27 | 19 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 8 | 29 | 23 | 3 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have managed to hold things together with Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford out of the lineup. They have won six of their last ten games and are still in the hunt for home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference. The Clippers draw a tough test tonight against the Thunder, who are fighting for their playoff lives. The Clippers are seven-point underdogs in a game that features the highest total on the board at 211 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 35-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
J.J. Redick (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Jamal Crawford is not expected to return to the court anytime soon, which means Redick will continue to log heavy minutes at shooting guard. He has played well over his last six games, averaging 26.2 fantasy points per contest. Even more impressive is the fact that he is averaging 39 minutes per contest during that stretch. Redick is expensive, but I still like his potential in a fast-paced, high-scoring game against the Thunder.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10500, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
No one is going to be targeting Chris Paul tonight. He is dealing with a knee injury and he’s coming off of a disappointing outing of 27 fantasy points. This will likely be a night where he has the lowest ownership of any game since Blake Griffin was first injured, even though this is one of his best matchups since then. Paul is at his best when he faces elite point guards and there Russell Westbrook is playing better than any other player in the NBA right now. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see CP3 drop a 60-burger tonight against the Thunder.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games, but have actually lost ground to the Pelicans during that stretch. They are only one game ahead of the Pelicans in the loss column, so every game is critical for the Thunder. Tonight they host the Clippers in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring affair. The Thunder are projected to score 109 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the board.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13300, DK: $12500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 37.4)
Westbrook is priced above $13,000 (on FanDuel) for the first time this season. He is also facing Chris Paul, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Is that enough to finally fade Westbrook? Of course not! He has been absolutely dominant with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, and 3 steals per game. He will likely be the most popular pick at point guard again tonight and for good reason.
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
| Atlanta | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 100 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.17 | Team Pace | 98.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chander | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 23 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 16 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 25 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks have officially clinched a playoff spot, becoming the first team this season to do so. They have all but locked up home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they still have something to play for, as can still catch the Warriors for home-court advantage throughout. They draw one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as the Nuggets have allowed the fifth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 23-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Al Horford (FD: $8100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
The concern with the Hawks isn’t about their matchup, it’s about the Nuggets’ ability to keep this game close. If they do, there are quite a few Hawks’ players that could reach and exceed value tonight. One of which is Horford, who has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last six games. He’s a terrific option at center against a Nuggets’ defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Paul Millsap (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Millsap has the perfect recipe to exceed value tonight. He has a depressed price tag and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Nuggets have struggled to defend opposing bigs for years and this season is no different. They are ranked 29th against opposing power forwards this season. Over his last four games, Millsap is averaging 34 fantasy points per contest, a mark that he should be able to reach again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Teague is another Hawks’ player that deserves consideration tonight. He is coming off of a huge outing against the Kings in which he scored 44.5 fantasy points. Teague provides great upside at his price point and he should excel in what will be a pace-up game for the Hawks.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5700, DK: $4900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Carroll is still extremely cheap on DraftKings and is a recommended play on that site once again. He needs around 25 fantasy points to meet value expectations, a feat that he is certainly capable of. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last four games and the Nuggets are ranked 29th against small forwards.
Denver
The Nuggets have played better under interim head coach Melvin Hunt, but they are still a below-average basketball team. They are 7.5-point underdogs tonight against the Hawks. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, but the game is being played in Denver, which should help the Nuggets keep it within striking distance.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 50-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6400, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Faried has played well over his last five games, averaging 34.4 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. His matchup against the Hawks isn’t ideal, but his stellar play of late warrants fantasy consideration. He should be able to dominate the glass against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.
Minnesota at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 206 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
| Minnesota | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5 | Vegas Sprd | -5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.45 | Team Pace | 99.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 23 | 24 | 9 | 21 | Opp. Season | 29 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 12 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. This game should be a fantasy goldmine tonight, as both teams are projected to score over 100 points. The Suns present a very favorable matchup, as they are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 33-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Ricky Rubio (FD: $8200, DK: $8300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Given all of the options at point guard tonight, Rubio may fly under the radar in a favorable matchup. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and he squares off against a Suns’ defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Rubio is capable of posting triple-double type of numbers in a game that has the second-highest total on the board.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6500, DK: $6800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Wiggins has scored at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. He has also played at least 37 minutes in seven of his last last nine games. He provides a high floor and he draws a terrific matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Phoenix
The Suns are now three games behind the Thunder for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. If they want any chance of playing in the postseason, they need to start winning some basketball games. The Suns will be short-handed tonight against the Wolves, as Brandon Knight has already been ruled out. Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, and P.J. Tucker should all see a boost in either minutes and/or usage.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-48
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8300, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Brandon Knight has already been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Wolves, which should result in an uptick in both minutes and usage for Bledsoe. His fantasy production has been hampered by his back-court mates all season, but that shouldn’t be a problem tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed the second-most points per game to their opponents this season. Bledsoe is my favorite play at shooting guard tonight and it’s not even close.
Secondary Plays
P.J. Tucker (FD: $5400, DK: $5500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Tucker has one of the lowest usage rates among starting small forwards. That’s not exactly promising, but he is a player that rebounds and defends well, which boosts his fantasy appeal. He may see a small boost in minutes tonight with Brandon Knight out and he has now scored at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games.
Detroit at Golden State – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -14, 205 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Detroit | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.81 | Team Pace | 100.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tayshaun Prince | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 17 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 10 | 29 | 27 | |
Detroit
The Pistons will likely be in for their eighth loss in a row tonight, as they take on the Warriors, who own the best record in the NBA. The Pistons are 14-point underdogs tonight and they are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. This has blowout written all over it and the Pistons can safely be avoided for our purposes. The risk outweighs the rewards here.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 50-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors will look to improve upon their NBA-best 27-2 record at home. They are double-digit favorites against the Pistons in a game that could easily be over by halftime. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all in play in tournaments, but all three are risky cash game options in what is expected to be a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at Portland – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Houston | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.18 | Team Pace | 96.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 6 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 28 | 23 | |
Houston
The winner of this game will move into the third-seed in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Rockets are 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Blazers in a game that features a high total of 206 points. On paper, this is not a great matchup though, as the Blazers are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 41-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $11300, DK: $10800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
With Russell Westbrook’s price where it is, Harden will be an afterthought tonight. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having Harden with a low ownership percentage in tournaments. Regardless of his matchup, he has 60+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor. Target Harden as a contrarian play in tournaments.
Portland
The Blazers have won seven of their last ten games and would be hosting a first-round playoff series if the season ended today. Tonight they host the Rockets in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring games. The Rockets rank high in defensive efficiency, but they play at a very quick pace and are missing their best rim protector in Dwight Howard.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 43-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9400, DK: $9000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
While Aldridge is coming off of two subpar fantasy outings in a row, he should be able to bounce back against a Rockets’ front-court that is still missing Dwight Howard. The Rockets DvP rankings against power forwards and centers continue to drop, as they are now ranked 23rd against power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Arron Afflalo (FD: $4400, DK: $4500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Once again, in order to roster Russell Westbrook, we need to find value. Afflalo offers that tonight at shooting guard. He has yet to post a big game with the Blazers, but he should see around 30 minutes per game moving forward. Wesley Matthews is out for the season and it’s only a matter of time before Afflalo takes on a bigger role in the offense.