NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Chicago at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -6, 187 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Richardson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Chicago | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 90.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.54 | Team Pace | 98.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jason Richardson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 14 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Season | 26 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 17 | 19 | 7 | 7 | |
Chicago
The Bulls have lost three games in a row and are now in danger of losing out on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They have a great chance to get back on track tonight though, as they face the lowly Sixers in Philadelphia. The Bulls are six-point favorites against a defense that is ranked 20th in points allowed per game this season. The Sixers have also struggled on the glass, ranking 29th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 14-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $5700, DK: $6200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21)
The Mirotic hype is real, people. If you haven’t bought in yet, now is the time. He has made the most of his increased opportunity recently, averaging 32.3 fantasy points over his last six games. The most impressive part is that he has done it in some very tough matchups (WAS, OKC, IND, SAS, and MEM). He has to be licking his chops for a matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 29th against power forwards and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Brooks has been inconsistent filling in for Derrick Rose, but he is starting to get his feet under him. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last five games and is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Brooks offers great upside at his price point against a Sixers’ team that is ranked 24th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9100, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Mirotic has cut into the production of Gasol and Noah recently, but the good news is that their prices have come down to a very playable level. Gasol is only $8,600 on DraftKings, which is his lowest price point in quite a while. If there was ever a game for Gasol to post a monster fantasy outing, this would be it. The Sixers do not defend the paint or rebound well.
Joakim Noah (FD: $7000, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Noah’s price is also depressed, which gives us an opportunity to buy low on the Bulls’ big man. He needs roughly 35 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he has accomplished five times in his last ten games. Noah is an appealing contrarian play for tournaments tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are finally starting to get healthy, as Isaiah Canaan, Jason Richardson, and Robert Covington are all expected to play tonight. It will be interesting to see what their starting lineup will look like against the Bulls, but for our purposes, it may not matter. The Sixers draw a tough matchup against a team that is ranked 12th in points allowed per game and fifth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 39-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at Charlotte – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -8, 204.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
| Sacramento | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.60 | Team Pace | 95.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 10 | 21 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 29 | 24 | 13 | 22 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have lost four games in a row and seven of their last ten. It should come as no surprise that they are eight-point underdogs against the Hornets. The Kings have been on the losing end of too many blowouts recently, which does hurt their fantasy appeal in games like this. Additionally, this is not a great matchup, as the Hornets are ranked sixth in points allowed per game and 12th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 28-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10600, DK: $9700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.6)
Cousins doesn’t seem to be on anyone’s radar tonight, which makes him a terrific option for tournaments. While he does have a relatively low floor (especially in blowouts), the same can’t be said for his ceiling. He has 50+ fantasy point potential every time he steps onto the floor. Tonight he takes on a Hornets’ defense that is solid as a whole, but their one weak link is Al Jefferson. He will not be able to defend Cousins on the block or keep him off the glass.
Charlotte
Kemba Walker is tentatively expected to return to the lineup tonight against the Kings. As of now, it’s not clear whether he will start or come off the bench. Either way, his presence is going to cut into the production of Mo Williams. Both should be avoided until we get a clear picture of each player’s role in the offense moving forward. The Hornets do draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, but it may not hurt to take a wait-and-see approach in Walker’s first game back with the team.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams (FD: $3900, DK: $3400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Cody Zeller has already been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Kings, which means Williams will likely draw the start at power forward. In order to roster Russell Westbrook tonight, you are going to have to find value and Williams provides just that. He is averaging 0.72 fantasy points per minute this season and he could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight against the Kings.
Memphis at Boston – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 192 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Memphis | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.19 | Team Pace | 98.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 24 | Opp. Season | 5 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 19 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 27 | 8 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies continue to cruise along in the competitive Western Conference. They have won six of their last ten games and they have a firm grasp on the second-seed. The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites tonight against the Celtics in what will be a pace-up game for Memphis. The Celtics play at the fifth-fastest pace of any team in the NBA this season. They have also allowed the sixth-most points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 26-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $6400, DK: $6100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24)
Conley finally broke out of his slump, putting up 39.5 fantasy points against the Bulls on Monday night. His price is still depressed and he draws another favorable matchup tonight. The Celtics have been better against point guards recently, but are still ranked 17th against the position on the season. Conley should excel in what will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
There are two teams that I love targeting power forwards and centers against: the Nuggets and the Celtics. Both teams struggle to defend the paint and both give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing bigs. Gasol is a safe option at center tonight. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in five of his last six games and provides a very high floor for a player at his price point.
Boston
The Celtics draw the worst matchup on the schedule tonight. The Grizzlies force opponents to play at their pace and they have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. To give you an idea of how tough this matchup is, take a look at the Celtics’ team total. They are only projected to score 94 points tonight, which is seven points lower than their season average. Isaiah Thomas is a game-time decision tonight, but even if he sits out, no one sees a big enough boost to warrant consideration.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 45-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Brooklyn at Miami – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 199 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Jack-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Walker-Haslem
| Brooklyn | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.53 | Team Pace | 92.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Jarrett Jack | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Henry Walker | Udonis Haslem | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 11 | Opp. Season | 16 | 27 | 8 | 26 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 19 | 4 | 24 | 19 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost four games in a row and are quickly falling out of playoff contention. They do have a chance to gain some ground tonight though, as they are facing a Heat team that is also in the mix. The Nets are four-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a generous total of 199 points. The Heat’s defense should take a big blow with Hassan Whiteside suspended tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 28-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6900, DK: $6100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 27)
If you took Lopez last night, you were feeling great after he put up 30 fantasy points in the first half. Unfortunately, he disappeared after that and only played six minutes in the second half. That’s the type of player that Lopez is; he can either dominate or disappear. I like his chances to dominate tonight against a Heat front-court that could be without both Hassan Whiteside and Chris Andersen.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Young is affordably priced on most DFS sites and he gets to face a Heat frontcourt that may be missing their best two defenders. Young has averaged 26 fantasy points per game in his first two starts with the Nets and should be able to post a similar outing tonight against the Heat.
Joe Johnson (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Alan Anderson and Markel Brown are both doubtful for tonight’s game against the Heat, which means Johnson could push for 40+ minutes. Johnson has really struggled over his last five games, but could break out of his slump tonight against the Heat. No one will be on him tonight and he could prove to be a difference maker in GPPs.
Jarrett Jack (FD: $5900, DK: $4200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
It’s not official, but the Nets may decide to start Jack next to Deron Williams tonight with both Alan Anderson and Markel Brown. Even if Jack doesn’t start, he will see an uptick in minutes tonight. He offers great value on DraftKings at a price of $4,200, as he would only need 21 fantasy points to meet value expectations.
Miami
Erik Spoelstra has done his best Greg Popovich impression over the last week, much to the chagrin of those that play daily fantasy basketball. He is up to his same antics again tonight, as Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, and Chris Andersen are all game-time decisions. The only player update that we know for certain is that Hassan Whiteside will not play, after he was suspended for elbowing Kelly Olynyk in the back.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 25-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Michael Beasley (FD: $4200, DK: $4100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Beasley is the one Heat player that is on my radar tonight. His value does go up if Dwyane Wade sits out, but he should see minutes in the upper 20’s regardless. Over his last three games, he is averaging 22.3 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. He offers great value at small forward, which is the thinnest position on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -7.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Dedmon-Vucevic
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Orlando | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.83 | Team Pace | 96.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Dewayne Dedmon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 19 | Opp. Season | 22 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 11 | 23 | 30 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 2 | |
Orlando
The Magic have won five of their last ten games, but are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. They also draw a tough matchup against a Bucks’ defense that has held their opponents to the 5th-fewest points per game this season. The Magic’s team total is set at only 93 points tonight, which is considerably lower than their season average. The Magic can safely be avoided tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 33-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, but it hasn’t hurt them at all in the Eastern Conference standings. They are all but locked into the sixth seed, unless they can catch fire down the stretch. The Bucks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 24th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 21-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7000, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Giannis is coming off of a stellar performance against the Pelicans. He finished the game with 29 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals. He is the type of player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He should do more of the same tonight against the Magic, who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Ilyasova is on my GPP radar tonight, thanks to his cheap price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The word consistency is not synonymous with Ilyasova, but that’s not what we are concerned about in tournaments. It’s all about upside and Ilyasova provides plenty of that against a Magic team that is ranked 20th against power forwards this season.