NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 18th - Page Two
San Antonio at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5, 192 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| San Antonio | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.97 | Team Pace | 96.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 18 | Opp. Season | 18 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 3 | 25 | 19 | 1 | |
San Antonio
Greg Popovich was furious with his team after losing to the Knicks last night. I fully expect this veteran team to bounce back in a big way tonight against the Bucks. In terms of the matchup, this is not a great one to exploit for fantasy production. The Bucks are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 2nd in efficiency and 5th in points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 34-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tiago Splitter (FD: $3900, DK: $3600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 17.4)
It was puzzling to see Splitter struggle for such a long stretch, as he is a very talented big man. He’s a decent scorer, a good passer, and a good defender. His confidence appears to be back, as he has averaged 20 fantasy points per game over his last six. His minutes are trending upward and he is coming off of an impressive 33 fantasy point outing against the Knicks. He’s a viable punt option tonight against the Bucks.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have the unfortunate task of facing a Spurs’ team that is coming off of a terrible loss. The Spurs are already a good defensive team and I’m expecting a strong defensive performance from them tonight. The Bucks are only projected to score 93 points tonight, which is considerably lower than their season average of 97.4. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams are both decent tournament options, but I will be avoiding all Bucks in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 41-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -6.5, 212 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-Kanter-Adams
| Boston | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | Team Proj. | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.39 | Team Pace | 98.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 4 | Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 27 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 2 | |
Boston
The Celtics are one of the three teams that are tied for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Most are expecting the Heat and Pacers to claim the last two spots, but the Celtics are sticking around. They draw a favorable fantasy matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Isaiah Thomas is not expected to play tonight, which solidifies the minutes for Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 37-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Avery Bradley (FD: $6200, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
I was kicking myself the other night when I swapped out Bradley for Turner in my $535 qualifier on FanDuel. I wouldn’t have won the seat, but I would have at least been in the money. Bradley posted a huge fantasy outing of 44 fantasy points against the Sixers. He will likely be asked to log heavy minutes again tonight and he’ll likely spend some time defending Russell Westbrook.
Evan Turner (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
If the Celtics stick Bradley on Russell Westbrook, that may actually give a small boost to Turner offensively. He’s a player that can run the offense and he has always had a good ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is worth a look on FanDuel tonight, where he is still listed as a shooting guard.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have lost five of their last ten games and are now tied with the Pelicans for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Every game moving forward is extremely important for OKC. The Thunder draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game this season. The Thunder have their team total set at 109 points tonight, which is one of the highest totals on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 30-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $6500, DK: $6600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
There are quite a few options at center tonight, but Kanter is my favorite play in both cash games and tournaments. He has really stepped up with Serge Ibaka out of the lineup. In his last three games, Kanter has scored 43, 40, and 35 fantasy points. He should play 35+ minutes tonight against a Celtics’ frontcourt that really struggles to defend the paint. This may be the last opportunity to target Kanter at this price point and I am going to take full advantage of it.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13200, DK: $12600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 37.4)
Westbrook as a secondary play?? You may think I’m not in my right mind, but there comes a point where any player can become a little too expensive. Westbrook has been on a tear recently and is in a great spot tonight, but I find myself leaning toward Stephen Curry on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Curry will see a small boost with Klay Thompson out and he is $3,000 cheaper than Westbrook. This is not to say that I don’t think Westbrook is a great option, I just find myself leaning toward Curry.
Orlando at Dallas – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -11.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harkless-Vucevic-Dedmon
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitkzi-Chandler
| Orlando | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.5 |  | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.91 | Team Pace | 96.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Maurice Harkless | Nikola Vucevic | Dewayne Dedmon | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 14 | Opp. Season | 23 | 9 | 30 | 20 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 15 | 30 | 28 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 30 | 27 | 15 | 7 | |
Orlando
The Magic are playing their second road game in as many nights, after losing to the Rockets last night. Tobias Harris sprained his ankle and wasn’t able to return and it’s safe to assume that he will sit out tonight’s game against the Mavericks. The Magic are huge underdogs in this game, but Harris’ absence could open the door for a few plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 43-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $7700, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25)
Oladipo has been on a tear over his last ten games, averaging 37 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. Oladipo would see a small fantasy boost if Tobias Harris is unable to suit up. The Mavericks have been tough against shooting guards this season, but I don’t mind his matchup against Monta Ellis. For the price, Oladipo is one of the top plays at shooting guard tonight.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8400, DK: $8300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Vucevic has seen a big boost in usage with Tobias Harris off the floor this season. That bodes well for his outlook tonight against the Mavericks. Tyson Chandler is still a very capable defender down low, but Vucevic has great upside in this matchup. Again, I’m leaning toward Enes Kanter at center, but Vucevic deserves a look in tournaments.
Elfrid Payton (FD: $6600, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Payton is playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. The Magic are giving him all of the minutes that he can handle so that he can continue to develop. He is a very appealing tournament play tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 21st against point guards this season.
Dallas
The Mavericks draw a favorable matchup against the Magic, but this game has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Magic are playing in the tail end of back-to-back road games and they may be without one of their best players. The Mavericks are listed as 11.5-point favorites tonight. They do have a very high team total of 107 points though, which makes fading the team completely a tough decision.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 37-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6400, DK: $6700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Parsons has played well since returning from his injury. Over his last four games, Parsons is averaging 30 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He draws a tremendous matchup tonight against the Magic, who may be without Tobias Harris (ankle). The Magic have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -8, 212.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Cousins
| L.A. Clippers | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.85 | Team Pace | 97.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Carl Landry | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 13 | 21 | 28 | Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 27 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 29 | 29 | 17 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 26 | 24 | 10 | 14 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are a very tough team to target in DFS right now. Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick all seem a little overpriced now that Blake Griffin is back in the lineup. They draw a favorable matchup against the Kings tonight though. The Kings have allowed the second-most points per game this season. The big question here is the availability of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. If both are unable to play tonight, this game could easily be over by halftime.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 22-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9300, DK: $9000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
Griffin has played well since returning from injury, scoring 37 and 42 fantasy points in his first two games back. He has showed few signs of rust. Tonight is a great opportunity to target Griffin on a night where his ownership level will be much lower than it should be. Griffin draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 21st against opposing power forwards this season.
Sacramento
Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins is out tonight.
The Kings are a tough team to breakdown until we know the availability of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. Both are listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers. With this game having a late start time, we may not know if they are playing or not until well after the first games tip off. If both players are forced to sit out tonight’s game, Ray McCallum, Omri Casspi, Ben McLemore, and Jason Thompson would all become appealing value plays.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 43-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
TBD
Secondary Plays
TBD
Atlanta at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -6.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Bazemore-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Holiday-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Atlanta | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.27 | Team Pace | 100.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kent Bazemore | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Justin Holiday | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 20 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 9 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 16 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks and Warriors square off in a battle between the two best teams in the NBA. The Hawks are looking to sweep the season series, as they beat the Warriors by eight points in Atlanta (124-116). I’m expecting another high-scoring affair between these two teams tonight. The total of the game is set at 208.5 points, which is the third-highest total on the board. Kyle Korver will not play tonight, which means Kent Bazemore will draw another start at shooting guard.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 53-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Millsap’s price is depressed and he’ll likely see a few more minutes tonight, given the importance of the game. In his first matchup against the Warriors this season, he finished with 21 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals. He is a tough cover for anyone, even the pesky Draymond Green.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Most people will gravitate to Bazemore tonight, but Carroll also sees a small boost in Korver’s absence. Carroll played extremely well the other night against the Kings, scoring 32 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. Carroll’s price is reasonable and he should excel in an uptempo battle against the Warriors. He’s one of the safest small forward options in tonight’s slate.
Secondary Plays
Kent Bazemore (FD: $5500, DK: $4000 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Bazemore has played well in his last two starts, scoring 29 and 27 fantasy points. His price has come up on FanDuel, but he’s still sitting at a very playable price of $4,000 on DraftKings. At that price, he’s arguably the top value play at shooting guard tonight.
Golden State
The Warriors will be without Klay Thompson for the next 7-10 days, as he is dealing with an ankle injury. Stephen Curry, Justin Holiday, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala are all candidates to step up in his absence. The Warriors are listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Hawks in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 53-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $9400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
With Thompson out, Curry will be the lone “Splash Brother” in the Warriors’ backcourt. Curry may see a small uptick in both minutes and usage while Thompson is out, both of which bode well for his potential fantasy production. Curry draws a favorable matchup against the Hawks, who have been average against point guards this season. A one game sample size is small, but Curry did have 26 points, 2 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in his first meeting against the Hawks. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Curry over Westbrook tonight.
Draymond Green (FD: $7800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Green is arguably the top small forward tonight on FanDuel and arguably the top power forward tonight on DraftKings. He should log heavy minutes tonight in a big game against the Hawks. He may also see a boost in usage with Thompson out. Green can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he has scored at least 35 fantasy points in six of his last ten games.
Secondary Plays
Harrison Barnes, Justin Holiday, and Andre Iguodala are all viable value options tonight with Klay Thompson out.