NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 18th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Brooklyn at Cleveland – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -11, 204.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Brooklyn | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.79 | Team Pace | 94.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 24 | 24 | 11 | 15 | Opp. Season | 15 | 27 | 8 | 27 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 28 | 14 | 1 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 26 | 28 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have won two games in a row, but they are still two and a half games out of the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have a tall task in front of them tonight, as they head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. The Nets are 11-point underdogs in this game with their team total set at only 97 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 43-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Young has played well over his last five games, averaging 29 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. Young has topped the 30 fantasy point mark three times during that stretch and he finds himself in a decent matchup tonight against Kevin Love. Young is the preferred big man on the Nets, but is far from a must play tonight.
Joe Johnson (FD: $5600, DK: $5400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on the former All-Star, as his price is depressed and he finds himself in a decent matchup against the Cavaliers. The Nets may rely heavily on Johnson tonight and he is coming off of his best outing in weeks. Johnson scored 37 fantasy points in only 25 minutes of action on Monday night.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Heat in Miami on Monday night. It was a strange game, as it took three quarters before LeBron James finally started to look like himself. The Cavaliers are large favorites tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 24th in rebounding differential. This is an appealing matchup, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. On a night with 11 games on the schedule, the Cavaliers are secondary fantasy options at best.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 27-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Detroit at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -2, 194.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Monroe-Drummond
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Richardson-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Detroit | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.62 | Team Pace | 98.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jason Richardson | Hollis Thompson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 29 | 15 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 17 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 18 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 22 | |
Detroit
Editor’s Note: Greg Monroe is out for tonight.
The Pistons are coming off of an incredible comeback victory over the Grizzlies last night. They were down close to 20 points in the first half and ended up beating Memphis by ten points. The Pistons have a good chance to start a winning streak, as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. Greg Monroe is expected to play tonight, which means Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, and Anthony Tolliver will all go back to their usual roles on the team.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 15-52
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
The Grizzlies had no answer for Jackson last night, as he torched their defense with 20 points and 23 assists. While his usage rate may go down with Greg Monroe back in the lineup, the matchup against the Sixers is a tremendous one. On the season, the Sixers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Jackson should also have plenty of confidence heading into tonight’s contest.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8300, DK: $7500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Drummond also had a monster fantasy outing last night against the Grizzlies. He finished the game with 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 blocks. While his ceiling would be higher if Greg Monroe was out again, he is still a terrific fantasy option tonight. The Sixers are ranked 30th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential this season. I’m leaning toward Enes Kanter in cash games, but Drummond offers incredible upside as a tournament play.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have been competitive recently, but they have still only won three of their last ten games. They have a good chance to pick up their 16th win of the season tonight, as they are only 2-point underdogs against the Pistons. This is an average matchup for potential fantasy production, as the Pistons are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and tenth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 24-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7500, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Noel has stepped up as a leader of the Sixers, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 13 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 3 steals per game. During that stretch, he has topped 35 fantasy points six times. He draws a favorable matchup tonight, as the Pistons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Hollis Thompson (FD: $4100, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 15)
Thompson drew the start the other night against the Celtics and saw 31 minutes of action. The Sixers’ rotation is very inconsistent, but Thompson would offer good value if he draws another start tonight. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games and the Pistons are an average defensive team at best.
Portland at Miami – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 201 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| Portland | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.8 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.50 | Team Pace | 93.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7 | Opp. Season | 24 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 12 | 23 | 6 | 13 | |
Portland
The Blazers have won eight of their last ten games and are now tied with the Grizzlies in the loss column. If the Blazers can continue to rack up wins, they could very well end up as the second seed in the Western Conference. The Blazers are 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Heat in a game that features a total of 201 points. The Heat are not a great rebounding team, but they play at a slow pace and are ranked seventh in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 30-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Lillard will likely fly under the radar tonight with both Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook on the schedule. Lillard has played well recently, averaging 38 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws against the Heat, who have been one of the worst teams against point guards since acquiring Goran Dragic. Lillard is in play on all sites, but it’s worth noting that he is priced as a bargain on DraftKings ($7,800).
Secondary Plays
None
Miami
The Heat picked up a huge win over the Cavaliers on Monday night. Wade has really stepped up and has put the team on his back over the last couple of weeks. The Heat’s work is not done though, as they are still tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 44-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade is the only Heat player that is on my radar tonight. He has been terrific over his last eight games, averaging 40 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He has one of the highest usage rates in the entire NBA and should be the primary playmaker in the Heat offense again tonight. His price has come up across the industry, but he’ll come close to reaching value if he continues this high level of play.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota at Toronto – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -11.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Payne-Dieng
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Minnesota | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.49 | Team Pace | 96.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 26 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 29 | 26 | 29 | 25 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 23 | 28 | 20 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 25 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are dealing with numerous injuries right now. Kevin Garnett, Nikola Pekovic, and Gary Neal are all doubtful for tonight’s game against the Raptors. Ricky Rubio said that he is unsure if he will be able to play tonight. It sounds like the Wolves could be without all four players once again. The Wolves will likely be on the wrong end of a blowout tonight against the Raptors, but all of the injuries open up quite a few value plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 40-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6400, DK: $5900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15) – If Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are both ruled out tonight, Dieng would log heavy minutes in the Wolves’ frontcourt. He has been very productive in the starting lineup this season and he’s coming off of a strong effort last night against the Nets. Dieng may also see some garbage time production in a game that could easily turn into a blowout.
Zach LaVine (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 20.7) – If Ricky Rubio is ruled out, LaVine would draw another start at point guard. In his last two starts, he has scored 29 and 22 fantasy points. LaVine is turnover-prone, but he would see a ton of minutes if Rubio is unable to suit up tonight. He should reach value with ease against a Raptors’ defense that is ranked 22nd against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Wiggins is in the middle of a mini-slump, but his price has come down and his usage rate in the offense will be high with all of the injuries to his teammates. This is a great time to buy low Wiggins, as his minutes should be secure even in a blowout. He is a solid mid-range option at a position that typically lacks options.
Toronto
The Raptors are huge favorites at home tonight against the Wolves. This game has blowout written all over it, especially if Ricky Rubio is unable to suit up. While the matchup is one of the best on the board (Wolves are ranked 30th in points allowed per game), the Raptors starters may see limited minutes. The potential blowout makes the Raptors’ players risky fantasy options tonight against the Wolves.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-52
Points Allowed Per Game: 106 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7300, DK: $7000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
DeRozan is typically thought of a cash game play. He’s a consistent player that has a high floor. Tonight he is better suited for tournaments though. Everyone (including myself) is expecting a blowout tonight, which should lean to a low percentage of ownership for DeRozan. If the Wolves are able to keep this game competitive, DeRozan could be in for a big outing, as the Wolves have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Indiana at Chicago – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -1.5, 189 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Indiana | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.58 | Team Pace | 95.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 12 | Opp. Season | 11 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 17 | |
Indiana
The Pacers have lost two in a row and are now in a three-way tie for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in what should be a defensive battle. The Bulls play at a relatively slow pace and are ranked 11th in points allowed per game this season. The Bulls are also a terrific rebounding team, ranking sixth in differential on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 40-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $6600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Trends are converging for a nice outing from Hill tonight. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest. He has topped 35 fantasy points four times during that stretch. He also draws a fantastic matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards over the last three weeks. No matter how hard he tries, Aaron Brooks is just not a good defender.
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $5700, DK: $5500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
West typically sees his minutes go up when the Pacers face talented frontcourt duos. West is their best low-post defender and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play more than 30 minutes tonight. This could be a great time to buy low on West, as he is priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Chicago
The Bulls may be my least favorite team to target tonight. Scratch that, they are my second-least favorite team to target, as I want no part of the Wizards against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. The Bulls draw a tough matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked in the top six in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls can safely be avoided tonight, as there are much better matchups to exploit.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 30-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None