NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 25th - Page Three
Portland at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -4.5, 183 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Wright-Leonard-Lopez
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Burke-Ingles-Favors-Gobert
| Portland | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 183 |  | Vegas Total | 183 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.3 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.4 | Team Pace | 92.4 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Dorell Wright | Meyers Leonard | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 1 | Opp. Season | 27 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 18 | |
Portland
It’s hard to break down the Blazers tonight until we know the status of LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Both players missed last night’s game against the Warriors and both are listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Jazz. On paper, this is a very tough matchup, as the Jazz own the league’s best defense. On the season, they are ranked first in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 31-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 95 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8700, DK: $7600), Robin Lopez (FD: $5600, DK: $4500), Arron Afflalo (FD: $4000, DK: $4300), Dorell Wright (FD: $4300, DK: $3500) would all become viable options against the Jazz if LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are unable to play tonight.
Utah
The Jazz have really played some great basketball over the last month of play. They are still not the best offensive team, but they own a stifling defense with Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors protecting the paint. The Jazz draw a tough matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Jazz would see a small boost as a whole if LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are unable to suit up, as they are two of the better defenders in the NBA. Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood are both expected to miss tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 44-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $7900, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
This pick hinges on the availability of LaMarcus Aldridge. A matchup against Dorell Wright is a far cry from a matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge. Favors has scored at least 30 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games, topping the 40-point mark three times during that stretch. If Aldridge is ruled out, fire up Favors as an elite play against the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Gobert bounced back in a big way on Monday night with 18 points, 17 rebounds, and 6 blocks. He draws a much tougher matchup tonight against the Blazers, but Gobert isn’t a player that needs to score a ton of points to be productive. I’d love to list him as an elite play, but the combination of price and matchup have him listed as a secondary option tonight against the Blazers.
Trey Burke (FD: $5100, DK: $4900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
With Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood both expected to miss tonight’s game, Burke should see an uptick in both minutes and usage. He may even enter the starting lineup against a Blazers’ defense that is ranked 27th against point guards this season. Burke is one of the many great value options at point guard tonight. He’s a borderline elite play.
Oklahoma City at San Antonio – 9:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8, 213.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Oklahoma City | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | Team Proj. | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.13 | Team Pace | 95.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16 | Opp. Season | 25 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 26 | 11 | 21 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 24 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have won four games in a row and are now three full games ahead of the Pelicans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs though. They have to face the defending champions in San Antonio. The Spurs are ranked in the top 11 in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 44-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Kanter posted a double-double in the first quarter last night against the Spurs. He has really flourished playing with Russell Westbrook. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 38 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 35 fantasy point mark seven times. His price is still playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the Spurs have struggled to contain power forwards, ranking 23rd against the position.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13300, DK: $13200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)
Gregg Popovich is great at taking away an opponent’s best player. While it will be tough to stop Westbrook, the Spurs are one of the few teams that may be able to contain him. Westbrook still deserves a look tonight, as he is a walking triple-double, but tonight may not be the night to pay the premium for him. Anthony Davis, James Harden, and DeMarcus Cousins all have better matchups.
San Antonio
There are always lessons to be learned in daily fantasy basketball. One that I have learned over and over is to never trust Gregg Popovich when it comes to his veterans. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan both played less than 27 minutes last night against the Mavericks. While I had zero shares of Parker, I did have quite a few Duncan shares. I can only blame myself for the decision, as we know Popovich is wildly inconsistent with his veteran’s minutes. There is only one Spurs’ player on my radar tonight against the Thunder.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 41-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Leonard has been on an absolute tear. He’s one of the rare players in the NBA that is just as talented defensively, as he is on the other end of the floor. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 40 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He should see close to 35 minutes again tonight, as the Spurs host the uptempo Thunder. Leonard’s price has come up across the industry, but until he stops producing, continue targeting him as an elite play at small forward.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $7700, DK: $6900) and Tony Parker (FD: $6000, DK: $6000) are both intriguing tournament options against the Thunder. Both should be avoided in cash games though.
Sacramento at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -8, 212 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Gay-Cousins
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
| Sacramento | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8 | Vegas Sprd | -8 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 110 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.9 | Team Pace | 99.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 19 | 24 | 8 | 17 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 13 | 19 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
Sacramento
The Kings head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The total for the game is set at 212 points, which is second only to the Thunder/Spurs game. The Suns are a terrific matchup for the Kings, as they are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 22nd in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 38-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10700, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
Cousins is coming off of yet another big outing against the Sixers. After putting up 39 points and 24 rebounds in their first meeting, he backed it up with 33 points, 17 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, and 4 blocks. He has as much upside as any player on the schedule tonight. The Suns have been decent against centers this season, but it’s hard to see Alex Len and Brandan Wright slowing him down. The upside is always there with Cousins and you have to love his price on DraftKings ($9,600). Plus, Cousins is trying to prove that he’s not an emotional lesbian.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Gay’s price differs drastically on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the price difference, he is an elite play on DraftKings ($7,700) and a secondary play on FanDuel ($8,600). Gay has played well over his last eight games, averaging 38 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Suns.
Phoenix
Brandon Knight is a game-time decision for tonight’s game against the Kings. If he is able to suit up, he will likely cut into the minutes and/or usage of Eric Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker, and Marcus Morris. We will have to wait for an update on Knight’s status closer to tip-off. The Suns draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the second-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 25-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
TBD – If Brandon Knight is ruled out tonight, Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8700, DK: $8200), Marcus Morris (FD: $5500, DK: $5500), and P.J. Tucker (FD: $5400, DK: $5600) would all deserve consideration as elite plays against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.5)‘
Morris has played well over his last six games, averaging 35 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 19th against power forwards this season. He will likely get overlooked tonight, making him an appealing tournament option in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.