NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 25th - Page Two
Chicago at Toronto – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -1, 199.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Chicago | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.43 | Team Pace | 95.9 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 29 | 9 | 9 | Opp. Season | 26 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 9 | 27 | 29 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 11 | 25 | 8 | 3 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are starting to get healthy. Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson have both returned to the lineup and it sounds like Derrick Rose will return before the end of the regular season. While that’s great news for Bulls’ fans, it makes predicting individual production difficult on a nightly basis. The Bulls now have 4-5 players that can go off on any given night. There are a few players with favorable matchups against the Raptors, but I will likely have very limited exposure to the Bulls tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 42-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9200, DK: $8700), Joakim Noah (FD: $7000, DK: $6400), Nikola Mirotic (FD: $7600, DK: $7300) are all viable options against the Raptors. The issue here is that it’s tough to predict individual production now that Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are both back in the lineup.
Toronto
Kyle Lowry aggravated his back injury last night and is now expected to miss tonight’s game against the Bulls. DeMar DeRozan, Greivis Vasquez, and Lou Williams should all see an uptick in minutes and/or usage. The Raptors are listed as 1-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 199.5 points. The Bulls present a mediocre matchup at best. They are ranked in the top 15 in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 43-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
DeRozan is playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 36 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. With Kyle Lowry out, he will be the number one option offensively tonight against the Bulls. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his matchup against Jimmy Butler, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
Houston at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 203 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Houston | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.3 | Team Pace | 93.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 11 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 23 | 10 | |
Houston
Dwight Howard is expected to return to the starting lineup tonight. He’s been out so long that it’s weird seeing his name listed with the starters. He is expected to be on a minutes limit, but his presence still hurts the fantasy appeal of Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith. The Rockets are listed as 1.5-point favorites tonight against the Pelicans. This is a mediocre matchup at best, as New Orleans is ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 5th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 37-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11500, DK: $11500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
Harden is listed as the starting shooting guard, but he will spend the majority of his playing time at point guard. He is a ball-dominant guard and the Rockets will be without their starting point guard, Patrick Beverley. We all know the type of upside that Harden provides, the only question is which superstar(s) we want to pay up for on a night that features a full slate of games. With Dwight Howard back in the lineup, Harden is the only Rockets’ player on my radar tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans
The Pelicans have won four games in a row, but they haven’t been able to gain any ground in the West, as the Thunder have also won each of their last four games. They can’t afford to lose any more games at this point if they want to make the playoffs. They draw a decent matchup against the uptempo Rockets tonight. The Rockets have been stout defensively this season, but the quick pace of play helps mitigate that.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 47-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $12400, DK: $11200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Davis is in the same boat as James Harden tonight. He’s clearly the top play at his position, but we have to decide which superstar we want to spend our salary on. Davis certainly deserves consideration, as he has averaged 58 fantasy points per game over his last seven contests. I’m not factoring in Dwight Howard’s return to the lineup all that much, as Howard will only play limited minutes and Davis will match up against him on very few occasions.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Lakers at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -2, 201.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Clarkson-Johnson-Kelly-Black
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brown-Wiggins-Payne-Dieng
| L.A. Lakers | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 97.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Jordan Clarkson | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Lorenzo Brown | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 30 | 24 | 22 | 13 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 19 | 1 | |
L.A. Lakers
This game has the potential to be a fantasy gold mine. The Lakers and Wolves both play at a fast pace and they are two of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. Even though the total is set at only 201.5 points, this is arguably the best game of the night for fantasy production. On the season, the Wolves are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. They are also ranked 23rd in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-54
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Jeremy Lin (FD: $5500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21)
Now is the time to buy low on Lin. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite play at point guard for both cash games and tournaments. He is FINALLY the Lakers starting point guard and he played well in his first start last night, scoring 19 points and dishing out 7 assists. Lin has been extremely productive this season, averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute. We can expect him to see 30+ minutes of action tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 29th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $5700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Hopefully someone took my advice and threw Clarkson in a GPP last night. Even though he started at shooting guard, he still played point guard quite a bit and he had an excellent outing against the Thunder. Clarkson deserves a look as a tournament play again tonight. The Wolves are ranked 26th against shooting guards this season.
Ryan Kelly (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Kelly is going to prove one of two things tonight. Targeting him will either be chasing points after his big game last night, or this will be a great opportunity to buy low on a player that is seeing extended action. Only time will tell, but he makes a serviceable value play against the Wolves, after scoring 31 fantasy points against the Thunder last night.
Minnesota
Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Gary Neal, and Kevin Garnett are all expected to miss tonight’s game against the Lakers. Kevin Martin and Justin Hamilton are both listed as questionable. It will be all hands on deck for the Wolves once again and it may not be a bad idea to load up on the value plays in this one. The Lakers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season. This game is expected to be close and both teams are allergic to defense.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 18-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 15.1)
With Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett, and possibly Justin Hamilton out again tonight, Dieng will continue to see all of the playing time that he can handle. He draws a terrific matchup against the Lakers’ frontcourt, that was torched by Enes Kanter and company last night. Dieng has a high floor and a high ceiling in this matchup, making him a strong play in all league formats.
Zach LaVine (FD: $5100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Jeremy Lin is not a great defender. I put zero stock into the fact that the Lakers are ranked #1 against point guards over the last week. I chalk it up to an aberration, as they are ranked dead last against the position over the course of the entire season. LaVine should draw another start at point guard tonight and he could push for 40 minutes against the Lakers. He’ll not only reach value, but he’ll exceed it with ease.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6000, DK: $6300) and Chase Budinger (FD: $4700, DK: $4100) are both viable secondary options tonight against the Lakers. Both players would see a sizable boost if Kevin Martin were unable to suit up tonight.
Cleveland at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Cleveland | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.78 | Team Pace | 94.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 13 | 22 | 23 | 10 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 5 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers/Grizzlies game will likely be one of the best games of the night to watch if you are a casual basketball fan. It will likely be one of the least games watched by the daily fantasy community. This game is void of fantasy appeal, as both of these teams play at a slow pace and both are stout defensively. LeBron James and his crew can safely be avoided tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked second in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 50-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies host the Cavaliers in a game that will likely be won on the defensive end of the floor. The Grizzlies are listed as 1.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 194.5 points. The Cavaliers are a mediocre matchup at best. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are both decent options tonight, but neither stands out as a must play at his respective position. Jeff Green and Tony Allen would both see a boost tonight, if Courtney Lee is unable to suit up.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 46-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Philadelphia at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -11, 209 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Richardson-Sampson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Philadelphia | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.28 | Team Pace | 98.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Jason Richardson | Jakarr Sampson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 22 | Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 15 | 26 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 29 | 17 | 20 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 15 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back, after losing to the Kings in Sacramento last night. They now travel to Denver to take on a Nuggets’ team that has played much better under interim head coach Melvin Hunt. The Sixers have one of the best matchups on the board, as the Nuggets have allowed the fourth-most points per game to their opponents this season. Jason Richardson is expected to return to the starting lineup here, which should end the short run of Robert Covington as a value play.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 27-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Noel is the only Sixers’ player that is seeing minutes in the 30’s consistently. He has been outstanding over his last ten games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. He draws a terrific matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 22nd against centers this season. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to reach value tonight, even with his expensive price tag.
Secondary Plays
Ish Smith (FD: $5600, DK: $5900 / MPG: 11 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
The only knock that I have on Smith is his lack of playing time. If he was seeing 30+ minutes per game, he would be listed as an elite play tonight against the Nuggets. Smith has averaged 28 fantasy points in 28 minutes per game over his last seven. His price is still affordable, but I prefer both point guards in the LAL/MIN game over Smith tonight.
Denver
The Nuggets are 5-5 in their last ten games. They have been regularly resting starters over the last couple of weeks, but it looks like they will be at full-strength for tonight’s game against the Sixers. This is an extremely favorable matchup, but it’s worth noting that this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Nuggets are 11-point favorites and the Sixers are playing in the tail end of back-to-back road games.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 17-54
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $7000, DK: $7400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Faried has really improved his play since the Nuggets fired Brian Shaw. He is getting more consistent minutes under Melvin Hunt. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 34 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Sixers are ranked 27th against power forwards and 27th in rebounding differential this season. The “Manimal” should have a monster game on the glass and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20/15 game from him tonight.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Lawson’s price is depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While he has been a little hit or miss recently, he draws a fantastic matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season. Dollar for dollar, there are better options at point guard, but Lawson’s upside puts him in play for tournaments.