NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 5th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-05 21:39:13

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Chicago at Detroit

Vegas Line – Chicago -3.5, 192.5 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Chicago

The Bulls and the Pistons are polar opposites. One team plays great defense and is over-performing with the little talent that they have and the other team plays terrible defense and may be the worst, most talented team in the NBA. The Bulls, of course, are the solid defensive team. This game should be played at a fairly slow pace, but the Bulls will likely see a couple more posseessions that their season average which never hurts a player’s fantasy value.

The Pistons have struggled defensively all season long. They are 103.4 points per game which is the 6th most in the NBA, they are below average defensively against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed, and they have consistently struggled to defend the same positions all season long. It has been a while since I’ve said this, but I think Carlos Boozer is in play. He’s definitely flying under the radar and his price is very affordable most most sites tonight. Jimmy Butler also makes a nice play here, it’s been incredible how far the Pistons have dropped in the rankings against SG’s ever since Singler was inserted into the starting lineup.

Joakim Noah – At this point, Noah is a threat to post a triple-double every time he takes the floor. Since the All-Star break, Noah is averaging 13 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals. There are few Centers in the game that fill up the stat sheet like Noah does. While Drummond is a great rebounder, he is not a great defender. Noah should be considered right up there with Cousins as the top Center play tonight.

Detroit

The Pistons face one of the 3 teams that I typically like to avoid taking players against. The Bulls love to slow the pace of the game down and make their opponents play at their pace. The Bulls are ranked in the top 5 in terms of total defense, points allowed per game, and fantasy points allowed as a whole. Andre Drummond would be the one possible play here, but I’m predicting Noah to outplay him and I’d much rather spend a little extra to get Noah in my lineups.

Sacramento at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – Sacramento -3, 205 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Sacramento

The Kings have a very nice matchup tonight against the Bucks who often forget to play defense. While the Bucks play at a below average pace (94 possessions per game), they are extremely deficient on the defensive end of the floor and the Kings should have not problem capitalizing on that tonight. The Bucks are giving up 101.9 points per game, are ranked 20th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers, and are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league.

The one player that I will likely be avoiding here is Isaiah Thomas. Brandon Knight is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and has held opposing PG’s to the 2nd fewest FP’s per game over the last 15 days. Rudy Gay makes a solid play at SF if you want to spend at that position. Gay is averaging 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists since the All-Star break.

DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins may be one of the best plays on the board tonight. To say that he has a great matchup is an understatement. The Bucks are extremely inept at defending the Center position and have given up the 3rd most FP’s to Centers this season. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and often have trouble with bigs that pound the offensive glass. Cousins is one of the best FP per minute players in the NBA and should be used in all lineups tonight.

Milwaukee

Don’t look now, but the Bucks are on a 1-game winning streak. The Bucks haven’t won two games in a row in over a month, but have a chance to break that trend tonight against the Kings. This is a solid matchup for the Bucks, but you always have to be a little concerned when Larry Drew is their head coach. The Kings are giving up 103.9 points per game this season which is the 4th most in the NBA. They are also ranked 21st or worse against all positions on the floor with the exception of Center.

Brandon Knight – Knight is the motor of this offense. His splits in wins and losses are pretty dramatic which speaks to the importance of his play. Knight is averaging 18 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds since the All-Star break and I really like his matchup against the much smaller IT2 tonight.

Ersan Ilyasova – Ilyasova is coming off of a career high 31 points against the Jazz. While we certainly can’t expect him to go 13/14 from the field again, the 14 shot attempts are promising. Sova has played 26+ minutes in 5 of his last 6 games and has only scored less than 22 FP’s once during that stretch. I think he makes a great value play tonight against the Kings.

New York at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -8.5, 210.5 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

New York

The Knicks have now lost 7 straight games and it’s not looking like they are going to end that streak tonight. While the Knicks have a pretty talented core group of players, they have not been able to come together as a team and it’s been a sit around and let Carmelo shoot type of year for the Knicks. The Knicks do have a favorable matchup tonight though. The Wolves are one of the fastest paced teams in the league (100 possessions per game) and are more concerned about taking the ball out of the hoop and running than they are with playing defense.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo has been a much different player on the road this season, but he’s still one of the best scorers in the game. In his first meeting against the Wolves, Melo put up 22 points and 17 rebounds. I like Melo tonight on non-efficiency sites, but I think his high volume of shot attempts hurts his value on DS.

Amare Stoudemire – Amar’e will likely get another start at PF tonight as the Knicks will have to play big in order to match up with Love and Pekovic. Stoudemire played very well in his last start. He posted 22 points and 6 rebounds in 32 minutes of play. If he can see 30 minutes of playing time again tonight, he will have no problem reaching value on both FD ($3,800), DK ($3,300), and DS ($6,530).

Minnesota

The Wolves take on a Knicks’ team that is counting down the days until the end of the season. I’m not sure what kind of effort we will see out of the Knicks tonight, but I think it’s safe to say that the Wolves have the upper hand in this one. The Knicks were a pretty solid defensive team earlier in the season, but have fallen apart lately and have even given up huge games to Centers in back to back games.

While this is a favorable matchup, I’m just not sure that I’m going to be using many Wolves in my cash game lineups tonight. Kevin Love price is beyond expensive, Nikola Pekovic is still working his way back from injury, Corey Brewer is as inconsistent as ever, and Ricky Rubio is not playing enough minutes on a nightly basis to be a consistent fantasy option. I do, however like Kevin Martin in a few spots, he has put up 37 and 25 FP’s in his two games back from injury.

Dallas at Denver

Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 216.5 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Denver Proj. Starters – Brooks-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

Dallas

The Mavericks and Nuggets game features the highest total of the night. The total has moved all the way up to 219 points and with the Mavericks only favored by 4.5 points, this should be a great game to target. Both of these teams love to push the tempo and both teams play at an above average pace (96 possessions per game for the Mavs and 99 possessions per game for the Nuggets). The Nuggets are giving up 105.1 points per game this season and are closing the gap on the Lakers for the 2nd worst defense in the NBA.

Dirk Nowitzki (Noto’s Play of the Day) – Over the past two days, I have given out my play of the day. They both happened to be Tyreke Evans and he came through in big ways both nights. Tonight, my favorite play is Mr. Nowitzki. The Nuggets have struggled with their interior defense all season long and I have a hard time seeing Kenneth Faried stopping Dirk tonight. Dirk has averaged over 1.1 FP’s per minute against the Nuggets this season. If he plays 35 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 40 FP’s.

Monta Ellis – Monta has really played well over his last 5 games. He’s averaging well over 35 FP’s per game over those contests and has played close to 40 minutes in each of those games. If Monta can see 40 minutes tonight against one of the worst defenses in the NBA, he should have a solid fantasy performance once again. Foye has never been known as a solid defender and Monta should attack the rim often tonight.

Denver

The Nuggets finally got their offense going the other night against the Wolves as Ty Lawson made his long-awaited return to the lineup. The problem was that the Nuggets forgot to play defense in that game and ended up giving up 132 points in regulation. Tonight’s game against the Mavericks should be another barn-burner. The Mavericks are giving up 102.2 points per game and don’t mind getting into a track meet.

Ty Lawson – Lawson didn’t waste any time getting back into the thick of things. In his first game back, Lawson posted 31 points (on only 16 shot attempts) and 11 assists. He has a solid matchup tonight against Calderon who he has averaged 19 points and 10 assists against this season. He appears to be over the broken ribs so don’t be afraid to use him in your leagues tonight.

Wilson Chandler – I don’t mind Kenneth Faried here either. Faried plays great at home. That said, Chandler is cheaper across the industry and has a slightly better matchup. Chandler finally broke out of his slump the other night with 39 FP’s. The most promising stat is that he made 9 of his 11 attempts inside the 3 point line. When Chandler attacks the rim, good things happen. Hopefully he won’t fall in love with the 3 tonight.

Atlanta at Portland

Vegas Line – Portland -9, 217 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Scott-Brand
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez

Atlanta

The Hawks will be without Paul Millsap again tonight and even though Pero Antic will dress, it doesn’t sound like he is going to play. That means that we will see another large dose of Elton Brand and Mike Scott. Brand’s price has gotten to a point where it’s hard to pay that much for him though. Of the two, I would rather take Scott at a steep discount.

The Blazers are giving up 103 points per game this season so if the Hawks can manage to keep this one close, there should be a few viable fantasy options here. Kyle Korver is cheap on most fantasy sites and offers a nice play in what should be an uptempo game.

Jeff Teague – Teague has been on fire ever since Millsap went down with his injury. Over the last 5 games, Teague is averaging more than 40 FP’s per game. With Millsap out, he is being asked to do more offensively as shown bu his 18+ shot attempts in each of his last 3 games. I’m not sure I will be paying the $15.8k price tag on DS, but he’s in play on all other sites.

DeMarre Carroll – Carroll is averaging over 30 FP’s per game over his last 4 and will be asked to play a large chunk of minutes again tonight with all of the injuries to the Hawks. He’s played at least 34 minutes in 4 straight games and makes a solid mid-range option at SF tonight.

Portland

The Blazers are projected to be the highest scoring team of the night which never hurts. The Hawks have not been very good defensively as they just don’t have enough big bodies to defend the paint. They have been forced to pick up their pace of play, and as a result, their DvP rankings are all blue and green. Blue and green rankings are what we like to see from a fantasy perspective.

All five starters from the Blazers are in play tonight and I will likely have some exposure to all of them throughout my leagues across the industry. Nicolas Batum has been on a tear averaging over 40 FP’s per game over his last 4, Robin Lopez production has not been hurt by Aldridge being back in the lineup, Damian Lillard can get hot at any time, and Wesley Matthews is primed for a bounce back game.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Typically it’s around the 3rd game back that players see their usual number of minutes. Aldridge played 30 and 32 minutes in his first 2 games and will likely see around 35 minutes tonight. The Hawks don’t have anyone to defend him down low and I love his matchups against a young Scott and an old Brand.