NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 188.5 Over/Under
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Patterson-Biyombo
| Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.5 |  | Vegas Total | 188.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 95.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Patrick Patterson | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | Opp. Season | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | |
Miami Heat
Series Record: 2-2
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.0 (4 of 4)
With the Heat’s season on the line, they turned to Dwyane Wade in the fourth quarter of Game 4. Like so many times in his career, he led his team to a comeback victory late. This has been a fantastic series so far, as all four games have been close with three of them going into overtime. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point underdogs in Game 5, although I see this one as another toss up. Hassan Whiteside did not travel with the team to Toronto and has already been ruled out of Wednesday’s game. Amar’e Stoudemire, Josh McRoberts, and Hassan Whiteside will continue to split minutes at center.
- Injury Watch:
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Elite Plays
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,300 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.07 | FP/Min: | 1.01 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.5 | 33.4 | 2.9 | 37.4 | 6.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 35.8 | 4.2 | 38.5 | 6.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.8 | 26.9 | 0.1 | 27.9 | 1.2 |
Wade took over yet another fourth quarter and overtime. He has been the reason why the Heat are tied in this series and not down 3-1 or even out of the playoffs altogether. So far in the postseason, he is averaging 35.8 fantasy points per game and that number goes up to 38.5 in his last three outings. With DeMar DeRozan banged up and Stephen Curry back for the Warriors, Wade is the top shooting guard target on the board tonight.
| Joe Johnson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,100 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.62 | FP/Min: | 0.67 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 36.1 | 2.7 | 39.7 | 6.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.2 | 22.3 | 0.1 | 27.3 | 5.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.6 | 15.1 | -0.5 | 18.0 | 2.5 |
After a quiet series against the Raptors, Johnson has broken out against the Raptors. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of the first four games in the series. With Hassan Whiteside out for Game 5, Johnson should be a safe bet to play 40+ minutes in a game that could eventually decide the series. He is one of the safest plays of the night.
Secondary Plays
| Goran Dragic | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,400 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.79 | FP/Min: | 0.90 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.8 | 32.5 | -0.3 | 35.7 | 2.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.3 | 25.8 | -1.5 | 22.3 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 20.9 | 2.0 | 18.6 | -0.3 |
Dragic has yet to score more than 33 fantasy points in any game so far in this series. While I don’t love his capped upside, he is a safe cash game target yet again. He should see close to 40 minutes (assuming he can stay out of foul trouble) and his price is affordable across the industry.
| Luol Deng | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,200 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.74 | FP/Min: | 0.72 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.4 | 36.4 | 4.0 | 41.2 | 8.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.2 | 27.0 | 2.9 | 20.9 | -3.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.0 | 13.8 | -1.2 | 8.1 | -7.0 |
Deng had his best game of the series, scoring 26 fantasy points in 44 minutes of action in Game 4. He hasn’t been nearly as efficient from the floor as he was against the Hornets in the first round, but there are only a handful of players that we can expect to play 40+ minutes. Deng is one of them.
Toronto Raptors
Series Record: 2-2
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5 (3 of 4)
The Raptors were so close to taking a commanding 3-1 lead in this series. Unfortunately, Kyle Lowry fouled out and the Raptors’ offense just never looked the same down the stretch of the fourth quarter and in overtime. The Raptors are listed as 4.5-point favorites in Game 5 at home. They are projected to score 96.5 points, which gives them the third highest team total. Jonas Valanciunas has already been ruled out of this game, which means Bismack Biyombo will draw another start at center.
- Injury Watch:
Jonas Valanciunas (Out)
Elite Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $7,500 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.79 | FP/Min: | 1.04 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.4 | 2.4 | 40.1 | 3.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 31.0 | -7.5 | 35.5 | -3.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 20.3 | -2.6 | 22.5 | -0.3 |
It appears that Lowry has his confidence back. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of the last three games. He would have had an even bigger outing in Game 4 if he didn’t get into foul trouble. With DeMar DeRozan ailing and with Jonas Valanciunas out, the Raptors have no other choice but to lean on their star point guard.
| Bismack Biyombo | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,400 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.88 | FP/Min: | 1.03 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 22.0 | 18.7 | -3.3 | 19.1 | -2.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.4 | 16.4 | -2.0 | 15.5 | -3.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.1 | 8.9 | -0.2 | 7.4 | -1.7 |
Similar to yesterday’s slate, I don’t see how you can fade Biyombo in cash games and live to tell about it. I was a little worried that the Raptors would play small ball (which they did down the stretch), but Biyombo still played 31 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points. He is close to a must play in cash games, as I expect him to be close to 90% owned.
| DeMarre Carroll | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $4,700 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.56 | FP/Min: | 0.68 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.2 | 31.9 | 1.7 | 38.4 | 8.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.8 | 18.0 | -2.9 | 23.9 | 3.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 12.1 | -3.6 | 13.5 | -2.2 |
Carroll has really played well in his last three games, averaging 23.9 fantasy points in just under 39 minutes per contest. With Jonas Valanciunas ruled out in Game 5, the Raptors will need Carroll to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He is a low risk option that is safe for both cash games and GPPs.
Secondary Plays
| DeMar DeRozan | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,300 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.74 | FP/Min: | 0.96 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.9 | 37.3 | 1.4 | 38.4 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.3 | 27.5 | -7.8 | 26.0 | -9.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.0 | 25.6 | -0.4 | 24.6 | -1.5 |
We are now finding out that DeRozan has been dealing with a thumb injury and that maybe the injury is what causing his shooting slump. While we don’t know the severity of the injury, he certainly didn’t look like himself in Game 4. For now, I see DeRozan strictly as a GPP play.
| Cory Joseph | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,600 | Salary: | $3,300 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.68 | FP/Min: | 0.74 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.6 | 24.5 | -1.1 | 28.4 | 2.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 17.2 | 16.6 | -0.5 | 13.0 | -4.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.9 | 15.4 | 0.5 | 15.2 | 0.3 |
Joseph saw huge minutes in Game 4, but a lot of that had to do with Kyle Lowry being in foul trouble. He may see a few extra minutes with Jonas Valanciunas out (if the Raptors play small ball), but I wouldn’t project him for more than 26-28 in Game 5.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -13, 217.5 Over/Under
- Portland Trail Blazers Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Harkless-Plumlee
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Portland Trail Blazers | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 115.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.30 | Team Pace | 101.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Maurice Harkless | Mason Plumlee | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | Opp. Season | 24 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 27 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | Last 3 Weeks | 22 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 30 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
Series Record: 1-3
- Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.3 (2 of 4)
The Blazers had their chances in Game 4, but Stephen “Video Game Mode” Curry had other plans. The Blazers eventually fell short in overtime and are now on the brink of elimination. They are listed as 12.5-point underdogs in Game 5. While this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, Portland has the second highest team total on the board at 101.8 points. If the Blazers can keep this game close, it will be a great source of fantasy production.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Damian Lillard | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $9,800 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.02 | FP/Min: | 1.09 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.7 | 39.8 | 4.1 | 42.7 | 7.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.4 | 40.6 | 1.2 | 51.7 | 12.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.6 | 26.8 | -0.8 | 29.9 | 2.3 |
Dropping dimes, dropping dimes. That’s one of my favorite commercials, although Lillard has been dropping three bombs more often than he has been dropping dimes in this series. He has been incredible in the last three games, averaging 51.7 fantasy points per contest. The Blazers may end up getting knocked out of the playoffs on Wednesday, but Lillard will go down swinging.
| Al-Farouq Aminu | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,000 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.85 | FP/Min: | 0.73 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 28.5 | 33.5 | 5.0 | 39.2 | 10.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.5 | 28.6 | 7.2 | 32.4 | 10.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.3 | 16.1 | 1.8 | 13.3 | -1.0 |
Aminu has seen a major boost in minutes and fantasy production, both in the playoffs overall and in this series. He is averaging 32.4 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest in the last three games. He should see around 40 minutes again in what could be an elimination game.
Secondary Plays
| C.J. McCollum | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,900 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.73 | FP/Min: | 0.85 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.7 | 40.1 | 5.4 | 43.5 | 8.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 29.2 | -2.4 | 32.0 | 0.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 23.6 | 20.1 | -3.5 | 20.7 | -3.0 |
Dwyane Wade stands out as the premier play at shooting guard and then it’s a close race between McCollum and Klay Thompson for the number two spot. McCollum hasn’t been amazing in this series, but he is averaging 32 fantasy points per contest in his last three games. He is also considerably cheaper than Thompson and should see similar minutes.
| Mason Plumlee | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,600 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.08 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.4 | 28.2 | 2.8 | 26.9 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.3 | 30.4 | 6.1 | 23.3 | -1.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.2 | 13.4 | -0.8 | 14.2 | 0.0 |
Plumlee is coming off of his best performance of the series, scoring over 30 fantasy points in Game 4. While I would like to go back to the well in Game 5, there is no reason to look his way in cash games when Bismack Biyombo is such a strong value play. Plumlee is strictly a GPP play in this slate.
Golden State Warriors
Series Record: 3-1
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 115.3 (1 of 4)
Stephen Curry showed a little rust for two and a half quarters in Game 4. In his first basketball game in three weeks, he remained aggressive and eventually caught fire. He showed why he was voted the unanimous MVP by completely taking over the game in the fourth quarter and overtime. I have seen a lot of basketball games in my life, but that performance from Curry is one that I will lock away in my memory forever. The Warriors now have a chance to close out the series in Game 5 at home. They are 13-point favorites with the highest team total on the board. Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are decent value plays at small forward, but neither stands out as a must play.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Stephen Curry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $11,000 | Salary: | $9,700 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.42 | FP/Min: | 2.09 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.2 | 25.0 | -9.2 | 36.6 | 2.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.9 | 35.6 | -12.4 | 58.8 | 10.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.8 | 31.9 | 4.1 | 37.9 | 10.1 |
If you didn’t see it live, make sure to find the video from the fourth quarter and overtime in Game 4. Curry was as clutch as you could possibly get. Not only was he making threes that only he could make, but he even grabbed an offensive rebound and put it back in, which was a huge play that no one seems to be talking about. The Warriors may look to limit his minutes if the game gets out of hand, but Curry is an elite GPP play on FanDuel and a solid cash game target on DraftKings.
| Draymond Green | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,300 | Salary: | $11,800 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.24 | FP/Min: | 1.15 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.7 | 37.8 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 7.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 47.0 | 7.9 | 57.8 | 18.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 18.5 | 2.5 | 20.7 | 4.7 |
Even with Stephen Curry back in action, Green finished with 59 fantasy points in Game 4. He has now scored at least 52 fantasy points in every game so far in this series. His price is still at $10,000 on FanDuel, which means will likely be highly owned once again. There may be some merit to fading him on DraftKings, as he is the most expensive player in the slate.
Secondary Plays
| Klay Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $9,000 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.01 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.3 | 36.2 | 2.9 | 39.8 | 6.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 36.6 | 5.7 | 35.1 | 4.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 24.5 | 2.2 | 24.0 | 1.7 |
Thompson is going to take a usage hit with Stephen Curry back in the lineup. We saw that in Game 4, as he only took 18 shots in a game that went into overtime. At this point, he feels a bit overpriced with Curry back. Thompson is still a nice play at shooting guard, but I don’t consider him a must play.