NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-10 01:36:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		204.5					Vegas Total		204.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		101.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		2.6
Projected Starters	T.J. McConnell	J.J. Redick	Ben Simmons	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Marcus Smart	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	5	24	2	2		DvP	15	15	20	9	8
DRPM Rat.	6	2	3	2	1		DRPM Rat.	14	25	1	19	2

Philadelphia 76ers

We are officially done with two-game slates in the NBA playoffs, or at least ones that only last one day. I really hope FanDuel and DraftKings will listen to the DFS players and give us the option between the single-game slates and the two-day, two-game slates for the Conference Finals. As mentioned in the last Grind Down, I like the chances for the Sixers to make history in this series. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs. If they can pick up a win tonight, they’ll have Game 6 at home. I have a hard time seeing the Celtics win in Philly with the momentum all with the Sixers. After that, we have a winner-take-all Game 7 with all of the pressure on the Celtics.

In order for that to happen, the Sixers need to take care of business tonight. They are listed as one-point favorites with an implied total of 102.8 points. T.J. McConnell drew a surprise start in Game 4 and didn’t disappoint, scoring 36 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. We shouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but he’s already been named the starter for Game 5. He’s dirt cheap across the industry and is the type of chalk that I’m willing to eat. J.J. Redick has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last six playoffs games. While he’s viable, we have two comparable plays in Marco Belinelli and Jaylen Brown, who are significantly cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Robert Covington is an easy fade on FanDuel, but is worth a look in large-field tournaments on DraftKings at a price of only $4,700.

There has been so much talk about the play of Ben Simmons, but he has scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of the first four games of the series. He’s made some bad decisions (especially late in games), but has the ability to put up 50 fantasy points without a big game offensively. I certainly prefer Joel Embiid as my “MVP” of the slate, but Simmons is an excellent tournament play. If the Sixers are going to pull off this win tonight, they’ll need a big game from both of their superstars. We can lock and load Embiid in all formats. He was quiet in Game 4, but we can throw that out the window. He has crushed the Celtics all season. Dario Saric should garner more ownership after his breakout game, but with so much interest in Simmons and Embiid, I will naturally be under-weight on Saric. Ersan Ilyasova has been productive this series, but isn’t playing enough minutes to warrant consideration outside of large-field tournaments.

Notable Injuries

None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -7.1 (2 of 2)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (GPP), Marco Belinelli (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Marco Belinelli (Cash), J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Robert Covington (DK GPP)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics need to take care of business tonight or they will be buried in pressure heading into Game 6. With the Western Conference finals already set, the entire NBA media would be talking about a potential Boston collapse if they lose tonight at home. Now, they could easily come out and take this game and it will be like nothing happened, but this feels like a better spot than most for a major comeback. The Sixers are the more talented team and the Celtics are playing short-handed. Regardless, tonight’s game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 204.5 points.

I have always been a fan of Terry Rozier, but have had a difficult time paying this price in the playoffs. During the regular season, he averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minutes. Even if we project him to play 40 minutes with that FP/min production, he’s nowhere close to reaching value at his current price point. Add in a matchup against the Sixers, who are stout against point guards and he is such a tough sell. I tend to trust long-terms trends over short-term form, so I will continue to be under-weight on Rozier. Marcus Smart has scored at least 28 fantasy points in four of his last five playoffs games, but consistency has never been his strong suit. He’s viable in tournaments, but shouldn’t be trusted in a cash game setting. Jaylen Brown is going to be on a minute restriction again tonight. If we take out the overtime in Game 3, he has played 23 and 24 minutes in regulation in the last two games. While that’s far from ideal, his price has come down enough that I’m willing to take a chance on him in tournaments.

Jayson Tatum continues to play well for Boston. He got into foul trouble in Game 4, but should push for minutes in the upper 30s tonight. He’s one of my favorite plays of the slate on both FanDuel ($11,500) and DraftKings ($10,800). Marcus Morris is cheap, he’s playing at home, and he’s played well in this series. He’s one of the better options sub-$10,000 tonight. And finally, we have “playoff” Al Horford. He has averaged 36 minutes and 37 fantasy points in the postseason and could push for 38-40 minutes tonight. Dollar for dollar, I prefer him over Terry Rozier and Ben Simmons. Aron Baynes has been hit or miss in this series, but has scored at least 17 points in three of his last four games. He’s a decent punt play in this single-game slate.

Notable Injuries

Shane Larkin (Out)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (1 of 2)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (Cash), Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes