NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 27th - Page 2
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Chicago at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -3.5, 186 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Dunleavy-Deng-Boozer-Noah
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Chicago
The Bulls rank in the bottom 10 teams in both pace of play (95) and points scored per game (91). While neither of these stats look great on paper, the injuries to the Bulls have opened up a ton of minutes. With Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler out, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Carlos Boozer, and Mike Dunleavy have all seen a huge increase in minutes.
Their matchup against the Pistons is favorable for Hinrich, Deng, and Noah. The Pistons have struggled against those 3 positions and I don’t mind the play for any of them.
- Kirk Hinrich – Hinrich is coming off of a very bad game against the Jazz, but he’s still seeing bit minutes now that Rose is out. I expect him to be just fine in this game. He will be under-owned and offers great value for his price.
- Luol Deng – Deng could potenially play 40+ minutes tonight if this game stays close. Coach Thib has never been shy with Deng when it comes to minutes and with all of the injuries, I don’t see him changing his philosophy tonight. Deng has nice upside and is a safe bet for 30 FP’s.
Detroit
The Pistons continue to be inconsistent. Andre Drummond has probably been the best fantasy option over the past couple of weeks, but the Bulls rank 6th against PF’s which really hurts his value. I think Brandon Jennings has some value, but he’s so up and down that I wouldn’t trust him in my cash games on a night where you have so many other options.
- Greg Monroe – Monroe has been quiet after a strong start to the season, but he has a much better matchup than Drummond. The Bulls are ranked 22nd against PF’s and Boozer has never been known as a great defender and Monroe has a big size advantage over him in the post.
Atlanta at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -8.5, 207 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Atlanta
The Hawks have gotten hit hard by the injury bug. Kyle Korver, Lou Williams, and Shelvin Mack are all ruled out for tonight’s game. This should open up minutes for DeMarre Carroll, Cartier Martin, and Jeff Teague.
The Hawks have a very favorable matchup against the Rockets who are giving up 104 points per game. If you look at the DvP rankings of the Rockets, you will see a lot of blue and green rankings. The Rockets have been awful defensively and all positions are in play.
- Jeff Teague – Teague has really been playing well and he will look to push the tempo tonight against the Rockets who have really struggled to defend in transition. Teague will see plenty of minutes tonight with all of the injuries and is one of my favorite PG plays. He has a mid-range price tag and the upside of a top tier player.
- DeMarre Carroll – Carroll has been a solid value play all season long and will get a nice bump in minutes tonight with Korver and Williams out. Look for him to see 35+ minutes against a very bad defense. He should easily cover value with the potential for a big night.
Houston
The Rockets lead the league in scoring at 108 points per game. We still don’t know the availability of James Harden tonight though which makes it tough to break down their fantasy options. If Harden does end up playing, downgrade Parsons, Lin, and Beverley. However, if Harden sits out again, there are quite a few options in play including Dwight.
Check the injury news and update your lineups accordingly. There are expected to be plenty of points scored in this one with a few good fantasy options.
Washington at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Washington -3.5, 190 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Webster-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
Washington
The Wizards play at an average pace, but have had great efficiency on offense and are averaging 100 points per game. They are playing in a back to back situation tonight, but it shouldn’t affect any of the starters. Vegas has the Wizards favored by only 3 points so expect this one to be close.
The Bucks have really struggled to defend SG’s, SF’s, and Centers, but don’t rule out John Wall. He has been on fire over his past few games and the Bucks don’t have anyone that can stay in front of him.
- Martell Webster – Webster has scored at least 25 FP’s in 8 straight games. He has been as consistent of a fantasy player as you could ask for. With Bradley Beal out for a few weeks, continue to play Webster as a solid value play.
- Marcin Gortat – The Bucks have struggled with Centers all season long. They are ranked 28th against Centers on the season and this is a nice spot for Gortat who is playing around 35 minutes per game. Gortat is flying under the radar tonight and makes a nice sleeper play at Center.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are starting to get healthy, but that hasn’t translated into any wins. The Bucks have lost 9 games in a row. While that’s usually cause for concern, Vegas expects this game to be close so I don’t think we have to factor in a blowout here. That said, the Bucks rotation changes on a nightly basis and there aren’t any options that stand out to me as solid plays. You never know what coach Larry Drew is going to do and why risk it by taking any of his players tonight?
Denver at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -6.5, 213 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Denver
Now this is a game that you want to target tonight. Both of these teams rank in the top 6 in points scored per game and both of these teams love to push the ball. Vegas has the total of this game set at 213 points which is the highest of the night. There are great options for both teams.
The Wolves have been very average defensively this season. All of their DvP rankings are inbetween the ranks of 14-22 so don’t rule out any of the starters on the Nuggets.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson is playing at an All-Star level and has a nice matchup against Rubio who goes for steals instead of playing solid defense. Lawson should push the pace and get plenty of easy buckets in transition. In their first matchup this season, Lawson went for 14, 10, and 5 and I expect him to play even better tonight.
- J.J. Hickson – Hickson has scored at least 27 FP’s in five of his last six games. Ever since being inserted into the starting lineup, he has been a great fantasy option. His price is still very affordable across the board and he should play well tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Minnesota
The Wolves are near the top of the league in both pace of play (101) and points scored per game (105). They have a great matchup against the Nuggets who are giving up 103 points per game. With the Wolves, there are always at least 4 fantasy options that you can potentially use every night and tonight is no different. In fact, you could make a strong case for any of the five starters on the Wolves tonight, the matchup is that good.
- Kevin Love – Love is the top overall fantasy option tonight. He is having an amazing season and has an extremely favorable matchup against the Nuggets who have had one of the worst interior defenses in the league this season. Love went for 28 and 10 in their first matchup and he should top that tonight.
- Kevin Martin – Martin is one of the best scorers in the game. He has so many different ways that he can score and the Nuggets are going to have an extremely hard time guarding him, especially with Rubio pushing the tempo and looking for Martin in transition.
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -2.5, 202 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
San Antonio
The Spurs continue to fly under the radar, yet they have only lost one game all season long. They are not only winning games, but they are dominating them which makes it hard to take any Spurs in daily fantasy. That should change tonight though as these two teams are very evenly matched. This will be the first time in a while that I’m recommending any Spurs.
- Tony Parker – The Thunder have really struggled to defend PG’s this season, ranking 24th in that category. Parker has played very limited minutes recently, but that’s just because the Spurs have been ahead by so much in those games. Look for him to finally see 30+ minutes.
- Kawhi Leonard – While Leonard draws a tough matchup defensively having to guard Durant, I think that it actually helps his fantasy value. Leonard will be asked to guard him all night which means he should get plenty of playing time.
Oklahoma City
On paper, the Thunder have an awful matchup against the Spurs who have been one of the best defensive teams in the league. However, Vegas has them favored by 2 in a game with an over under of 201 points. They don’t expect this one to be a defensive battle and neither do I. While there aren’t any matchups that stick out to us using the DvP rankings, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any good fantasy plays.
- Russell Westbrook – Westbrook has a huge size advantage over Parker and he should be able to pull up and shoot over him any time that he wants. Westbrook has averaged over 35 FP’s against the Spurs in the past and that should continue tonight.