NBA Picks: Suns vs. Blazers Odds, Preview, Prediction (Saturday, Oct. 23)

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-10-23 13:55:23

Suns vs. Blazers Odds

Opening week of the 2021-22 NBA season blazes on Saturday, and we should have a good one Saturday when the Phoenix Suns (1-1) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (0-1). The defending-champion Suns (+2.5, +115) will be looking to move above .500 for the first time on the young season, while the home-favorite Blazers (-2.5, -140 ML) will be battling for Chauncey Billups’ first victory as a head coach.

Led by 2020-21 Coach of the Year runner-up Monty Williams, the young-and-gunning Suns feature a prolific offense. Chris Paul brings the guidance, vision, and leadership, while Devin Booker provides the pure scoring punch and Deandre Ayton operates as a double-double machine. Three-and-D wings Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges round out Phoenix’s impressive starting five, while Landry Shamet and Cameron Johnson lead a hot-shooting second unit.

Meanwhile, the Blazers have an elite scoring trio—led by perennial MVP candidate Damian Lillard, and featuring fellow guard C.J. McCollum and 2020 trade-deadline acquisition Norman Powell. Rounding out the starting lineup for Portland are big men Robert Covington —a veteran three-and-D guy—and Jusuf Nurkic, who will be looking for a bounce-back year after a brutal stretch during the heart of COVID-19.

Oddsmakers have set the over/under for what should be an offensive slugfest at 232.5 points, easily the highest points total of the Saturday slate for NBA bettors.

Phoenix Suns Preview

While Portland has only played one game so far, Phoenix enters this evening on the tail end of a back-to-back for its third game of the young season. The Suns lost to reigning MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets 110-98 on Wednesday, but bounced back to beat LeBron James and the 2019 champion Los Angeles Lakers on Friday.

Will this Suns squad be gassed by Saturday evening? Three states in three days to start the season is a tall order, especially when four of your five starters are averaging 33.5 minutes per game through the first two games. But Phoenix went 12-5 with no rest last season (third-best in the NBA), and five of its rotational players have birth dates in 1996 or later. They’ll be fine.

Phoenix finished 51-21 last season, just one game back of the Utah Jazz for the best record in the Association. The Suns went 24-12 on the road, and 25-21-1 against the spread as an away team. As road underdogs, they went 10-6 against the spread. Phoenix took the home game against the Blazers 127-117, but then dropped the rematch in Portland 121-105 four days later.

The Suns have a balanced scoring attack—on any given night, four players could drop 20 points for this squad—and Williams emphasizes ball movement as well as moving without the ball. Just about every player besides Ayton has the green light from anywhere in the half-court, as long as it’s a smart shot. This team won nearly 2.5 times more than it lost last season, and won or covered in 63.5 percent of road games sportsbooks expected it to lose. It’s not every day you get the Western Conference-defending champions at +2.5, especially against a poor defense that just lost to Sacramento.

Portland Trail Blazers Preview

The Blazers brought in Chauncey Billups to hopefully change the course of this franchise. But Portland managed to dish out some disappointment for its fans in Game 1 of the 2021 season. The young, fiery Kings came into town and leveled the Blazers offensively—scoring 76 points total across quarters two and three—and Portland’s 72-point second-half charge wasn’t enough to mount the full comeback. Sac-town won 124-121.

If you’re Billups—or any fans and/or bettors of the Blazers—you are probably encouraged by the late run Portland waged. There at least appeared to be more effort in crunch time than in the first few frames, although the overall production was still significantly lacking. Nurkic was abysmal defending the lane and protecting the rim, looking as out of shape (and out of place) as he did last season. Robert Covington, hailed as the lock-down defender of this squad, could do nothing to help slow down Harrison Barnes, who scored a game-high 36 points. The Kings scored 51 points from three-point land, 46 points in the paint, and 23 points at the foul line.

Besides the glaring defensive issues, this Blazers team also lives and dies by the three-pointer. With a short nucleus of main scoring options—four of Portland’s five leading scorers in its first game stand 6’3” or shorter—the treys get chucked with reckless abandon. But so far in the preseason and first game of the regular season, they aren’t falling. The Blazers missed 23 of their 35 attempts from distance Wednesday, after ranking dead-last in three-point accuracy in the preseason.

As a home favorite last season, Portland covered the spread in just 11 of 29 games (37.9% cover rate). The Blazers should not be favored in this game, never mind by 2.5 points against the reigning-champion Suns.

Prediction

I’m all over the Suns +2.5 in Portland tonight. Nurkic will be completely overmatched by the younger, more athletic (and more fit) Ayton, and the Suns should continue to shoot the ball better than the Blazers as a team. The Suns also have a much more disciplined defense than Portland, and a much deeper bench in terms of scoring.

I don’t think this will be a very pretty game, nor will it end up the model of modern defensive strategy. But it will be fun, for sure. Both those squads cracked the top ten list in scoring last season—Portland 116.4 and Phoenix 113.8—and the three-pointers will be flying. But with the Blazers still kicking off rust, and the Suns on their third game (and third different state) in three nights, I’d stay away from the massive over of 232.5. I’m going with the road-dog Suns 113-109.

PICK: Suns +2.5

Image Credit: Imagn