Bucks-Suns Game 2 Player Props, Picks: Bets for Chris Paul & Jae Crowder (July 8)

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-07-12 13:39:54

The 2021 NBA Finals got off to an exciting start Tuesday, with the Phoenix Suns seizing home-court advantage and handling the Milwaukee Bucks 118-105. The game was not just entertaining for us, but also quite lucrative. As our loyal RotoGrinders readers already know, we nailed our Game 1 betting preview, and we hit two out of three of our top props for Game 1.

In case you haven’t already read, check out our Finals Game 2 betting preview. And without further ado, let’s analyze our three favorite player and team props for Thursday’s Game 2 tilt between the Suns and Bucks.

Bucks-Suns Player Props & Picks

Jae Crowder, Under 10.5 Points (-122)

As trends go, Crowder scoring in the single digits in points has been a fairly consistent one this postseason. The veteran forward has exceeded 10 points in just seven of Phoenix’s 17 playoff games, and he’s hit double-digits just once in the Suns’ past six contests. That’s a Mr. Freeze level of cold, and don’t count on Phoenix coach Monty Williams to let Crowder shoot his way out of it.

The 31-year old has reached 10 field goal attempts just four times this postseason, and he has yet to surpass six made baskets in a game. He also seldom gets to the foul line, having attempted just 23 free throws throughout the tournament despite playing big minutes. In a whopping eight playoff games, the 6-foot-6, 235-pound forward attempted zero free throws.

Crowder will have trouble turning things around against the Bucks, who guard his style of three-point spacer/specialist quite well. The veteran averaged just 7.5 points against Milwaukee during the regular season, and he went 0-of-8 from the field and 0-of-5 from long distance in Game 1. I think he will score some in Game 2, but I don’t see double-digits in his near future.

Chris Paul, Over 8.5 Assists (-139)

Chris Paul made the most of his first-career NBA Finals game Tuesday, recording 32 points and nine assists in the big win. He nailed four treys, dominated the midrange game as he so often does, and kept the Suns at a feverish pace all game. And I expect more of the same in Game 2.

CP3 might not hit 30 points again on Thursday, especially if three-time All-Defensive selection Jrue Holiday has anything to say about it. I expect Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer to work with Holiday to limit the scoring damage inflicted by Paul and fellow All-Star guard Devin Booker.

However, here’s the maddening thing about playing the Suns this year: when you try to limit the amount of good shots Paul gets up, you often end up surrendering more assists to him. In Paul’s past seven postseason games with single-digit field goal makes, he has averaged 10.4 assists.

CP3’s yearlong splits further support the case for betting on him to record nine or more dimes. He averaged 9.2 assists per win this season, and the Suns are -5.5 favorites in Game 2. His best assist numbers came in the month of May this regular season (10.1), meaning he gets up for the big games. And his numbers benefit from the longer minutes: he averaged 11.0 assists in games that he logged 40 or more minutes, and 9.1 assists in games he averaged between 30 and 39 minutes (he has exceeded 30 minutes in each of his past nine postseason starts). Book this one with confidence.

Khris Middleton, Double-Double (+285)

As I outlined in my betting preview earlier, Milwaukee must do a lot of things differently if it intends to make this a series. But one of the key ingredients to a Bucks comeback will have to be quality performances by two-time All-Star Khris Middleton, who basically drives the success or failure of his squad.

Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the face of the franchise, but Middleton might be more important to Milwaukee’s short and long-term future. He has more scoring versatility, better range, superior handles, and a free-throw stroke Giannis could only dream about. Plus, he’s healthy.

Middleton reaching double-digits in points is a forgone conclusion—he’s done it in all 18 of Milwaukee’s playoff games, and in all but two of his 68 regular season games. It’s double-digits in rebounds that can be a bit more elusive for the All-Star—he’s only logged 10-plus boards in seven postseason games so far. But herein lies the intrigue: the Bucks went 6-1 in those seven games.

The Bucks know they need a big-time game from Middleton to stand any chance at an early-series road upset. Expect him to be aggressive from the jump tonight—hey, if he pulls off the double-dub, it could pay you out $154 on a $40 bet!

Image Credit: Imagn