NBA Player Props for Thursday, 2/19: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from LaMelo Ball, Jalen Brunson, and Nikola Jokic? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Thursday, February 19th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Following a week off for the All-Star Break, the NBA returns this evening with a 10-game slate to begin the stretch run of the campaign. Tonight’s action will be highlighted by a doubleheader on Prime Video, beginning with the Pistons against the Knicks at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Celtics against the Warriors.
Even coming out of a weeklong break, the NBA injury report, for Thursday is lengthy. Miles Bridges and Jalen Duren are two notable players who will miss tonight’s action due to suspension. Stephen Curry, Ivica Zubac, and Stephen Curry remain out due to injuries.
As always, be sure to use tools like CourtIQ and our NBA starting lineups page to evaluate how injuries impact usage and to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Thursday, February 19th!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & Kalshi referral code GRINDERS to unlock generous bonuses.
Best NBA Player Props for Thursday, February 19th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 19th:
- LaMelo Ball Over/Under 6.5 Assists
- Jalen Brunson Over/Under 27.5 Points
- Nikola Jokic Over/Under 10.5 Assists
LaMelo Ball UNDER 6.5 Assists (+114, FanDuel)
FANDUELIn 2 games without Miles Bridges this season, Ball has played 30 minutes and 32 minutes, respectively. According to CourtIQ, Ball is averaging 7.4 assists per 30 minutes with Bridges off of the floor this season, but this is a tough matchup for him coming out of the All-Star Break, facing a Houston defense that has allowed the fewest assists per game to opposing guards since Steven Adams last played on January 18.
Ball has gone under this number in both games without Bridges. He had 5 assists on 11 potential assists against the Warriors and 6 assists on 13 potential assists against the Hawks. The under has value here at plus money.
Jalen Brunson UNDER 27.5 Points (-105, bet365)
BET365This season, Brunson has played 14 games against teams currently ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating. He’s scored 27+ points in 7 of those games, but 2 of those performances came against the Heat, and 2 of those performances came in October. In recent months, Brunson has seen his scoring in tougher matchups skew under, including 4 games with fewer than 20 points scored.
Detroit will be without Jalen Duren, but the Pistons have actually been better defensively with Duren off of the floor this season. Detroit should be able to make life difficult for Brunson, similar to both of their earlier head-to-head meetings this season in which they have held Brunson to 14-for-41 shooting from the field (34.1%).
Nikola Jokic UNDER 10.5 Assists (-125, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSJokic is an incredibly gifted passer, but this is a tough matchup for him coming out of the All-Star Break. The Clippers have a 109.7 defensive rating this season with James Harden off of the floor, including a 106.0 defensive rating in 3 games since he was traded to Cleveland.
Put another way, there is a strong probability that the Clippers are a top-10 defense now that Harden is wearing a different uniform, and it’s not unreasonable to think they could be a top-5 defense the rest of the way if they stay healthy.
In 3 games since Harden was traded, only the Magic have allowed fewer assists per game, and no defense has forced more turnovers than the Clippers. ScoresAndOdds projections have Jokic at 9.01 assists for tonight’s matchup – a clear edge to the under.
Image Credit: Imagn