NBA Player Props for Thursday, 1/1: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Marcus Sasser, Jaylen Brown, and Cam Thomas? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Thursday, January 1st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy 2026! The NBA will ring in the new year with a 5-game slate beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET with a matchup between the Rockets and Nets.
Unfortunately, a new calendar year doesn’t mean a clean slate for the NBA injury report. Alperen Sengun, Michael Porter Jr., and Lauri Markkanen are the biggest names on the league’s injury report today.
As always, be sure to use tools like CourtIQ and our NBA starting lineups page to evaluate how injuries impact usage and to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Thursday, January 1st!
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Best NBA Player Props for Thursday, January 1st
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 1st:
- Marcus Sasser Over/Under 11.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
- Jaylen Brown Over/Under 30.5 Points
- Cam Thomas Over/Under 2.5 Assists
Marcus Sasser OVER 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120, bet365)
Prior to Tuesday’s contests against the Lakers, Sasser had only played 18 minutes all season. Then, with Caris LeVert absent, Sasser played 24 minutes, scoring 19 points, collecting 2 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists.
Sasser may not see 24 minutes again on Thursday, but he averaged 14 minutes per game last season and 19 minutes per game as a rookie. It seems reasonable to project close to 20 minutes for Sasser this evening with LeVert and Tobias Harris out of the lineup.
If he sees 18+ minutes, he should have a good chance to make an all-around impact in a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that has been underwhelming for most of the season to date.
Jaylen Brown UNDER 30.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
In his career, Brown is a 48% shooter from the field, including 36% from beyond the arc. In December, he shot 53.8% from the field, including 42.6% from 3-point territory. Suffice it to say, regression is likely coming for him in January.
Brown averaged 27.7 points per game in October and 28.6 points per game in November. Tonight, Boston is as healthy as they have been at any point this season. This is also their 4th consecutive road game, so there could be some general fatigue and malaise present.
The math shows a slight edge to the under at this number.
Cam Thomas OVER 2.5 Assists (+135, DraftKings)
This season, Thomas has played 1 game with Michael Porter Jr. inactive – he logged 35 minutes against the Timberwolves. He has played 1 game with Egor Demin inactive – he logged 25 minutes that night against the Rockets.
It seems safe to project Thomas for at least 25 minutes this evening. In 6 games this year in which he’s played 25+ minutes, Thomas has never had fewer than 7 potential assists.
Houston isn’t an ideal matchup for a player to rack up assists, but it’s difficult to pass on this price.
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