NBA Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Thursday (3/28)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for today — Thursday, March 28, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! Major League Baseball has stolen the attention of many bettors today, but there are still a pair of NBA contests on tap for this evening. An overlooked slate is also a potential breeding ground for mispriced lines and good value on the betting market, with less total volume influencing lines.
If looking to target the player prop market today, we have three player prop leans worth considering for Thursday, March 28!
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NBA Player Props Today – Thursday, March 28, 2024
- Damian Lillard Over/Under 22.5 Points
- Brook Lopez Over/Under 9.5 Points
- Khris Middleton Over/Under 5.5 Assists
Damian Lillard Over/Under 22.5 Points
Entering play on Thursday, Damian Lillard has scored 27+ points in 4 of his last 5 games. However, he’s coming off of a game on Tuesday in which he played 49 minutes in double-overtime against the Lakers. Fatigue is a legitimate concern for him in this spot. The matchup is also extremely tough, facing a Pelicans defense that ranks 3rd in points allowed per 100 possessions since the All-Star Break. In the last three weeks, only 3 opposing point guards have eclipsed this market number against the Pelicans. The under is a worthwhile risk here.
- PICK: Lillard UNDER 22.5 Points (+100), bet365
Brook Lopez Over/Under 9.5 Points
Brook Lopez is averaging 12.4 points per game this season, but his scoring is down to 10.8 points in March. Lately, his minutes have been erratic, with him playing as few as 18 minutes against the Suns on March 17. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup against the Pelicans, which rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency since the All-Star Break. Opposing centers have struggled against the Pelicans, with only 2 of the last 6 opposing centers going over their market number for points. At plus money, this is a worthwhile stab on Thursday.
- PICK: Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points (+110), bet365
Khris Middleton Over/Under 5.5 Assists
Since returning to the floor on March 17, Khris Middleton is averaging 7.5 assists per game, but he’s only averaging 10.5 potential assists (pAST) per game during that stretch. Middleton had 10 pAST against the Suns, 9 pAST against the Celtics, 12 pAST against the Thunder, and 11 pAST against the Lakers. Since the All-Star Break, the Pelicans rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and have allowed the 9th-fewest opponent assists per game. This is a tough spot for Middleton as a facilitator, and it is a spot in which we could see some potential regression in his role as a facilitator.
- PICK: Middleton UNDER 5.5 Assists (-115), bet365
Check out more DFS sites with Fantasy basketball pick’em like Betr Picks.
NBA 2023-2024 Results – Wager Type
Points: 102-92-4
Rebounds: 32-30-2
Assists: 21-20-3
Points + Rebounds + Assists: 14-15
Points + Rebounds: 10-1
Points + Assists: 4-0
Rebounds + Assists: 3-4
Three-Pointers Made: 18-18
Field Goals Attempted: 1-0
3-Point Field Goals Attempted: 0-0-1
Turnovers: 1-0
Steals: 0-1
Blocks + Steals: 3-3
Combined Record: 208-184-9 (53.1%)
Image Credit: Getty Images