NBA Player Props for Tuesday, 10/21: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Isaiah Hartenstein, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Tuesday, October 21st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Opening Night of the 2025-2026 NBA regular season!
The new season will tip off with Kevin Durant and the Rockets facing the defending champion Thunder at 7:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock, followed by the Warriors against the Lakers from Hollywood.
Of course, opening night on the hardwood also means opening night on the NBA injury report too. LeBron James, Jalen Williams, and Fred VanVleet being ruled out are the three most notable absences for Tuesday’s action. As always, keep an eye on things as we get closer to tip-off – players getting ruled out later in the day can open up significant opportunities on the player prop market.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Tuesday, October 21st!
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Best NBA Player Props for Tuesday, October 21st
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, October 21st:
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over/Under 9.5 Rebounds
- Stephen Curry Over/Under 26.5 Points
- Draymond Green Over/Under 5.5 Assists
Isaiah Hartenstein UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-135, BetMGM)
BETMGMHartenstein recorded 10+ rebounds in nearly 75% of his regular season games, but the context on opening night this year makes it difficult to think that trend will continue. Notably, Chet Holmgren missed multiple months of the regular season last year. In 38 games played without Holmgren, Hartenstein had 10+ rebounds 32 times (84.2%). However, that rate fell to nearly 50/50 with Holmgren active.
According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Hartenstein averaged 9.4 rebounds per 24 minutes with Holmgren off the court last season, but only 8.6 rebounds per 24 minutes when Holmgren was on the floor.
On Tuesday, Hartenstein has a tough matchup against a Houston team that led the NBA in rebound% while ranking 18th in pace.
Stephen Curry UNDER 26.5 Points (-104, FanDuel)
FANDUELCurry is 37 years old. He’s still one of the better scorers in the NBA, but he averaged only 24.5 points last season, and his 32.2 minutes per game was his lightest workload in a single season for his entire career, excluding years in which he had a significant injury.
From a probabilistic perspective, Curry is likely to go under this number more frequently than he goes over it this upcoming season, especially with Jimmy Butler in town and other younger players on the roster potentially taking a step forward in their development.
This doesn’t project to be the toughest matchup in the world for Curry, but it would be surprising to see him play heavy minutes on opening night, especially with the Warriors having ample depth to begin the year.
Draymond Green UNDER 5.5 Assists (-135, Caesars)
CAESARSThis is a bit of a speculative play, but it’s possible that the 35-year-old sees a reduced role as a facilitator this season for Golden State. Since averaging a career-best 8.9 assists per game in the 2020-2021 campaign, he’s averaged 7.0, 6.8, 6.0, and 5.6 assists per game, respectively, in subsequent seasons.
Following the acquisition of Jimmy Butler last February, Green’s assist numbers dropped even further. During Green’s final 17 regular season games, he averaged only 4.9 assists and 10.4 potential assists.
The addition of Al Horford this past offseason adds another capable facilitator to the Warriors offense. Simply, there are a lot of talented passers on this Golden State roster, and Green is another year older. There are some reasons to think he’s not going to average 6 assists per game this season.
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