NBA Player Props for Wednesday, 3/4: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Jaylen Brown, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Johnson? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Wednesday, March 4th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Tonight’s NBA slate features 6 games, highlighted by an ESPN doubleheader, beginning with the Thunder against the Knicks at 7:00 p.m. ET, followed by the Hawks against the Bucks.
The NBA injury report is busy once again on Wednesday, with Joel Embiid, VJ Edgecombe, and John Collins having already been ruled out. Deni Avdija and Pascal Siakam are among the notable names who are currently listed as questionable.
As always, be sure to use tools like CourtIQ and our NBA starting lineups page to evaluate how injuries impact usage and to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Wednesday, March 4th!
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Best NBA Player Props for Wednesday, March 4th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 4th:
- Jaylen Brown Over/Under 28.5 Points
- Chet Holmgren Over/Under 16.5 Points
- Josh Hart Over/Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Jaylen Brown OVER 28.5 Points (-104, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSBrown enters play on Wednesday, averaging 29.0 points per game this season. He’s been particularly good on 2 days of rest this year, scoring 29+ points in 6 of 9 such games overall, including 4 of 6 games on his home floor.
The Hornets have given the illusion that they have been a dominant team of late, but their recent wins have come against the Wizards, Bulls, Pacers, Trail Blazers, and Mavericks. Excluding Portland, the rest of those teams are a combined 7-33 SU in their last 40 games.
Charlotte doesn’t have a singular defender capable of slowing down Brown, and they aren’t as willing to double stars as some other teams around the league. Brown could feast in this matchup.
Chet Holmgren UNDER 16.5 Points (+100, bet365)
BET365Oklahoma City has been conservative with Holmgren’s minutes this season when playing on the latter half of a back-to-back set – only once has he played more than 28 minutes.
After playing 26 minutes last night in Chicago, Holmgren will likely see a similar minutes cap again on Wednesday against New York. This season, Holmgren has gone under this number in 4 of 5 games when playing on 0 days of rest. Overall, he’s gone under this number in 14 of 20 games in which he’s played between 25-30 minutes.
Tonight, he has the added difficulty of a tough matchup against the Knicks. Since the All-Star Break, New York has allowed the 2nd-lowest success rate on shot attempts in the restricted area – Holmgren’s most frequent shot location. This is good value.
Jalen Johnson UNDER 21.5 Points (-106, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSJohnson took only 9 shots in 30 minutes in his return from a hip injury on Sunday against Portland. Tonight, he will have to contend with a Milwaukee defense that has Giannis Antetokounmpo back on the floor.
When Antetokounmpo has been active this season, the Bucks have been a top-10 paint defense, limiting overall volume in the restricted area and paint, while also holding opponents to a low success rate on such attempts. This is an area where Johnson sees most of his volume.
Unless Johnson has an efficient night shooting from the perimeter, he likely ends up falling short of this number on Wednesday.
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