NBA Play-In Predictions: Spurs vs. Grizzlies, Warriors vs. Lakers Picks
Sloan Piva previews two more games of the NBA play-in tournament, starting with the Spurs vs Grizzlies, followed by the Warriors vs. Lakers. Can Steph Curry beat LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Follow along for NBA odds and betting picks.
For the second-consecutive season, the NBA is hosting a play-in tournament to determine the final teams into the playoffs. This unique wrinkle was developed by the league’s Board of Directors, and tweaked a bit between last season and this season. Whereas last season the play-in tourney solely determined the eighth and final seed in the East and West, this play-in will crown both the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference.
Last season, the eighth seeds went up against the ninth seeds for each conference’s final playoff spot. This year, things have become a bit more complex. Each conference’s teams with the seventh and eighth-best regular-season records will do battle to determine the seventh seeds—one game, winner takes the seed. Each conference’s ninth and tenth seeds will also play each other. The winners of the nine-ten matchups will then play the loser of their respective conferences’ seven-eight matchup to determine the eighth seed.
Got all that?! Easy peasy, right? The State Farm NBA Play-In Tournament may not have the full support of all historians of the game, never mind NBA veterans (cough, LeBron James, cough). But everybody can agree that it makes things more interesting. And it adds a handful of opportunities for us to bet on basketball! So, let’s jump in!
NBA Predictions — Spurs vs. Grizzlies
NBA Pick: San Antonio +4, OVER 222
I recently read that 73 percent of sharp money was on Memphis -4 in this matchup, and nearly all the sharp money was on the UNDER. Naturally, I’m going against the crowd, and betting San Antonio +4 as well as the OVER.
This is not just a contrarian take, or an oppositionist narrative—I honestly think the Spurs are a better overall team, with a better coaching staff and a better team leader. Gregg Popovich always goes into the playoffs with a solid game plan, and he has DeMar DeRozan leading a talented bunch capable of executing it.
The majority of the betting public is betting the Grizzlies because they are the more exciting team. With second-year phenom Ja Morant, the stretch-four duo of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, and the rugged double-double machine known as Jonas Valančiūnas, Memphis has a solid nucleus to build upon. But take it from someone who watched nearly 40 Grizz games this season: this is not a playoff team.
Memphis often gets careless on both sides of the floor. On offense, the game plan often devolves into Dillon Brooks or Grayson Allen chucking up low-percentage treys. Morant tends to try too hard to make highlight plays, and good defenses are often able to deny him penetration since they literally do not have to worry about his awful three-point shooting. Valančiūnas, meanwhile, often gets taken out of games due to foul trouble. The Grizzlies are mediocre at best at most defensive metrics, but people think they are halfway-decent defenders since they rack up lots of steals (that just means they are athletic and cheat a lot…).
What Memphis does well is rebound and move the ball around. Morant and veteran swingman Kyle Anderson have been very good at finding open shooters all season. Hell, if the Grizzlies starters could hit threes with better efficiency, Morant might have finished in the top three in the NBA in assists this season (he finished eighth with 7.4 apg). Instead, he often ends up crashing the boards with Valančiūnas, relying on his incredible athleticism on put-backs.
The Spurs are not without their flaws, either. They also take a lot of shots, and struggle to score with efficiency. They turned the ball over more than 28 other teams this season, and committed more fouls than 27 other squads. But in the end, San Antonio has the experience, the intelligence, and the leadership to win a one-off game over the young Grizzlies.
DeRozan has been one of the more underrated playmakers in the NBA this season, often playing point forward with effortless elegance. He has seamlessly incorporated his exquisite mid-range shooting into San Antonio’s offense, as proven by the Spurs 31.9 two-point field goals per game (second-highest average in the NBA). When he gets hot, defenses play him tighter, and he explodes to the hoop and draws fouls—as evidenced by the Spurs 17.4 made free throws per game (ninth-most). And when he gets doubled, he almost always finds the open man.
The Spurs are missing a key piece in Derrick White, a Bubble star last season who can never seem to avoid injuries. But they have plenty of fire power alongside DeRozan. Guard Dejounte Murray continues to evolve his NBA game, with an inside-outside approach and underrated defensive skills. Second-year forward Keldon Johnson has emerged as an explosive slasher. Key veterans like swingman Rudy Gay and backup point guard Patty Mills always seem to hit big treys. And center Jacob Poetl has done yeoman’s work down low this year.
I’m clearly in the minority with this pick, and this might be my least confident Play-In Tourney bet. But I just have to go with Pop and the Spurs here. Even if they don’t win straight up, I like them to keep it to within four points at the final buzzer. The OVER 222 points is the layup in this game—like I said before, these teams are chuckers. San Antonio saw four of its last five regular-season games eclipse 240 points, one of which reached a whopping 271 (a 146-125 win over Milwaukee on May 10). Meanwhile, three of the Grizzlies’ last five games totaled 225 points or more. I would pound the OVER here like yesterday’s beef.
PREDICTION: Spurs 117-112
Warriors vs. Lakers Betting Picks
NBA Pick: Lakers -195 ML, OVER 219.5
Sure, LeBron James may have flip-flopped on his original endorsement of the NBA’s Play-In Tournament. But even the King has to recognize how awesome it is to have a pre-playoff one-off between him and Steph Curry. The next chapter of the LeBron-Steph rivalry will not crown a champion—it will crown the seven seed.
How can anyone hate on this format? It doesn’t matter how many fans are in attendance—this game will have March Madness vibes with three of the five best players in the world competing in it. The stakes are high—the winner avoids Utah in Round 1 of the Playoffs—and the stars will be competing with everything they have in the tank.
Golden State enters the Play-In Tourney with a ton of momentum. Curry is fresh off one of the best regular-season stretches in his career, having scored 885 points in the final 23 games of the season to bag the 2020-’21 NBA scoring title over Bradley Beal. That’s 38.5 points per game over a 23-game stretch.
The Warriors have also benefited from Draymond Green finally playing like Draymond Green. The veteran’s superb playmaking on one end and elite defense on the other has finally rounded back into form, something the Dubs haven’t seen since they were a bona fide dynasty. Between Curry’s electric scoring and Green’s vintage impact play, Golden State finished the month of May with the best net rating in the NBA (13.1).
But don’t be quick to dismiss the defending-champion Lakers. Chef Curry may be cooking, but the title of best basketball player in the world still belongs to King James. With LeBron, Anthony Davis, and Dennis Schröder all back from their respective injuries, the Lakers are ready to get down to business.
LA did its best to avoid this extra pre-playoff tournament altogether, winning its last five regular-season games. But the Trail Blazers ended up tied with the Lakers with 42-30 records, and Portland owned the tiebreaker thanks to a 2-1 season series win over LA. Thus, the Blazers assume the sixth seed, and LA has to get some work done just to get into the dance.
Part of me believes the play-in will only make LeBron and AD better prepared (and more lethal) for the actual NBA Playoffs. And everything that I know (and love to hate) about LeBron James tells me that he will win this game, then beat the No. 2 seed Suns in the first round of the Playoffs, and somehow end up right in the front of the race for yet another title.
Nobody can deny Curry’s place among the immortals on the short list of best scorers ever. And he has the Warriors playing superb team basketball, despite obvious roster shortcomings. But it’s simply impossible to bet these Warriors against the reigning champions with both superstars active. James and Davis are not just an unstoppable force on offense, they are also immoveable objects on defense when they want to be. Simply put, when these two guys are on the court, they aren’t losing to a No. 8 seed unless they’re on Quaaludes.
Now, don’t go betting the farm on the Lakers -4.5 because I made a funny. I still like Golden State to stay in this game and keep it close. Curry is just as competitive as James and AD, and he’s as unguardable as anybody in the world. I just think the collective experience, the superior defense, and the dominating physical compositions of the Lakers will prevail.
NBA PREDICTION: Lakers 113-110
Image Credit: Imagn