NBA Opening Night Odds: Predictions for Warriors-Nets & Clippers-Lakers
The 2020-21 NBA regular season tips off with two marquee matchups on Tuesday night. At 7 pm ET, Kevin Durant makes his Nets debut while hosting a few olds friends in Brooklyn, then we get another Hollywood showdown between the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers. Let’s take a closer look at odds, NBA betting tips, and predictions for both games.
NBA Odds and Predictions
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 22 (7 ET)
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn
- How To Watch: TNT
Oddsmakers opened the Brooklyn Nets opened as 5-point favorites but the line has stretched to as much as Nets -7.5 at some “online sportsbooks”/sports-betting Tuesday morning. Per Scores and Odds, 74% the consensus betting handle is current behind Durant and Kyrie Irving. The total is 229.5, with 78% of money on the Over.
Crazy enough, it’s been over a year since we’ve seen Kevin Durant, arguably the best basketball player in the world, on the court. His last basket came in Game 5 of the 2019 NBA finals, the same game in which he ruptured his Achilles. There were talks that Durant might make his return in the NBA bubble, but the Nets opted for the more conservative approach. Now the question is, will Durant and Kyrie Irving be able to co-exist?
Is Durant Ready to Win MVP?
NBA futures bettors have plenty of faith in the Brooklyn duo. according to ESPN’s David Purdum, the Nets have second-most money behind them to win the NBA title, and only the Bucks have shorter odds to win the Eastern Conference.
Speaking of futures odds, if the Nets do represent the East in the NBA finals, it’ll likely be because of Durant himself. As our own NBA DFS analyst Andy Means pointed out earlier this offseason, Durant is an interesting bet to win the 2021 NBA MVP Award. At the time, Durant carried an enticing +1800 price tag at BetMGM. Unfortunately, Durant’s odds have since shortened to +1200 at both BetMGM and PointsBet, but if you have FOMO, I won’t blame you for betting Durant despite the change in odds. Remember, Durant averaged 32 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game when he won the award during the 2013-14 season. Durant averaged over 25 points in each of his three seasons with Golden State, and that’s while he was sharing the ball with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Irving, who averaged 27.4 points last season, will certainly take his fair share of shots, but Durant will have the opportunity to post an MVP-worthy stat line so long as he’s fully healthy.
Warriors vs. Nets Predictions
As for the game at hand, the Nets should have a significant edge over the Golden State Warriors, who will be without their best active defensive player, Draymond Green, in Brooklyn. The addition of Durant will help boost the Nets offensive efficiency (22nd, 108.9), obviously —they had the no. 7th-best offensive efficiency during the preseason—but Durant will also provide added strength to a defense that was already top-10 in defensive efficiency without him (9th, 109.5). Durant’s defense is generally under-appreciated. Few people realize he finished sixth in blocks and limited his opponents to 40.9 percent shooting in 2018.
To slow down Steph Curry, the Nets will need all the defensive help they can get. Curry looks to be in form, scoring 29 points against the Sacramento Kings just a few nights ago. Again, a lot will be asked of Curry offensively since Klay Thompson is out for the season.
While the return of Durant is the main headline for the Nets, the most interesting thing about this team is that they’ll be coached by Steve Nash. It’s Nash’s debut as head coach, but he called in some help from his former head coach, Mike D’Antoni. After parting ways with Houston, D’Antoni joined the Nets as an assistant coach at the end of October. That solidifies what we already knew about the type of offense that will be implemented in Brooklyn, and the result will be a lot of points.
Maybe there’s some rust in the season-opener that keeps this game lower scoring than expected, but with Green out and Nash & D’Antoni in town, I’m predicting enough points for the Over to hit Tuesday night.
Prediction: Over 229.5
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 22 (10 ET)
- Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles
- How To Watch: TNT
The Los Angeles Lakers look to defend their NBA championship on short rest this season, and while I fully expect them to be one of the favorites as the season winds down, it may be a little while before LeBron James and the Lakers turn on the engine.
The offseason was unlike any other, and it may require additional rest for Lakers’ star players like James and Anthony Davis during the regular season. After all, it was just over two months ago that the Lakers won the NBA championship, and the short turnaround left them with little time for recovery. James, who turns 36 at the end of the month, is not getting any younger but he has more NBA championships, not MVPs, on his mind. To bring more titles to L.A., James needs to be healthy down that stretch. That means he’ll be saving his best for later.
It’ll be a balancing act for Lakers head coach Rob Pelinka, who has to navigate new rules from the NBA regulating when healthy players can rest, but I expect winning an NBA championship to take precedence over any fine the league will hand out. Pelinka has already hinted at load management for James.
Lakers vs. Clippers Predictions
If it’s not obvious, you should fade LeBron in the MVP race. The fact that he’s fifth on the betting board, with shorter odds than Durant, means there’s value elsewhere. (For what it’s worth, my favorite longshot MVP pick (thanks Ryan) is Ja Morant +19000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.)
For similar reasons, I plan on fading the Lakers early in the season, including in this opening night game against their city rivals. The Clippers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Lakers and the Under has hit in each game. James will be active Tuesday night as he will in most prime-time games this season, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be going 100%. I’m betting on LeBron’s former head coach, Ty Lue, in his Clippers debut tonight.
Prediction: Clippers +3.5
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