NBA PrizePicks Predictions for October 24th: Valanciunas, Johnson, Williams Make Top Plays
In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into some of the top picks for the upcoming NBA slate on PrizePicks. Most predictions are heavily based on projections, but you can find an extra edge if you happen to know ball too.
PrizePicks – one of the most popular pick’em DFS sites – provides player projections for NBA matchups each day. The ball is then in our court to decide whether a player will ultimately exceed or fall short of those projections in the games. With a huge roster of players available from which to choose, we just need to make a minimum of two picks to build an entry. And if you haven’t signed up yet, you can grab a special offer with our PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry!
We’ll break down the board by looking at factors like usage rates, projected pace, lines in the sports betting market, and of course, our RotoGrinders projections to forecast how players might fare in categories like points, rebounds, and assists. For even more alternatives when making your PrizePicks picks, be sure to check out our fantasy pick’em tool.
On the heels of Wednesday’s 10-game bonanza, the NBA tones things down on Thursday, as usual, with a 4-gamer. We’ve still got a few intriguing matchups on tap, including Thunder-Nuggets and Spurs-Mavs. In unrelated news, the Wizards will also play the Celtics. Let’s head on over to PrizePicks and build ourselves a winning card.
PrizePicks Top NBA Plays for October 24
- Jonas Valanciunas More/Less Than 22.5 Fantasy Points
- Keldon Johnson More/Less Than 15.5 Points + Assists
- Jalen Williams More/Less Than 18.5 Points
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Wizards vs. Celtics PrizePicks Predictions
Jonas Valanciunas MORE/LESS Than 22.5 Fantasy Points
The Wizards were the NBA’s worst rebounding team last season, and they worked this summer to try and fix that. Washington made Alex Sarr the No. 2 pick in the draft, while they also signed journeyman center Jonas Valanciunas in free agency. JoVal has been a solid starter at every stop of his career, though he was routinely benched in favor of Larry Nance Jr. in certain matchups last season.
It’ll be interesting to see what the Wiz do with Valanciunas’ minutes as the starting center. Fantasy production has never been an issue for him, as he averaged a healthy 1.24 FanDuel points per minute last year with the Pelicans. That was basically in line with his career production. The minutes are the question. We have him projected for 26 in his team debut against the Celtics. This is somewhat unpredictable given the new situation, and it doesn’t help matters that the Wizards are sizable 13.5-point underdogs on their home floor against the mighty Celtics.
If Valanciunas sees anything close to his projected number of minutes, it’s not like 22.5 fantasy points are too much to ask for given his excellent per-minute history. I like the MORE THAN side of this one.
- PLAY: Valanciunas MORE Than 22.5 Fantasy Points
Spurs vs. Mavericks PrizePicks Predictions
Keldon Johnson MORE/LESS Than 15.5 Points + Assists
The Victor Wembanyama Show is back on the air, but, as it turns out, the Spurs also have other players. Weird! Keldon Johnson was relegated to a sixth-man role last season, and it looks like he’ll reprise said role again this year. San Antonio could use some secondary scoring with Devin Vassell sidelined with an injury, and we still have Keldon projected to grab 24 minutes off the bench against Dallas.
Johnson certainly isn’t afraid to let it fly while he’s out there. In 882 minutes of action with Vassell off the floor last season, Big Body posted a healthy 24.8% usage rate. Only Wemby (33.3%) generated more usage without Vassell. San Antonio did bring in a few new faces however. Harrison Barnes is likely to start and play his 30ish empty minutes at one of the forward spots, while Jeremy Sochan will slide back to his natural forward position after spending much of last season masquerading as a point guard for unknown reasons.
Dallas wasn’t a great defensive team a season ago, but they could get a boost on the wing with the underrated addition of Naji Marshall. Even if Johnson may get his shots up, he’s not historically all that efficient. He’s knocked down less than 35% of his 3-point attempts over the last 2 seasons. Because he’s not much of a playmaker, he’s going to have to get those shots to go down in order to top 15.5 combined points and assists. Both the RG and the new ShotQuality projections have Johnson coming in closer to 10-11 real-life points scored.
- PLAY: Johnson LESS Than 15.5 Points + Assists
Thunder vs. Nuggets PrizePicks Predictions
Jalen Williams MORE/LESS Than 18.5 Points
The Thunder have championship aspirations this season after adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to what was already a deep, young, and talented roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a perennial MVP candidate at this point, but Jalen Williams is still one of the team’s more important players. Now that Josh Giddey is in Chicago, J-Dub figures to have the ball in his hands even more this season.
Williams upped his scoring average from 14.1 as a rookie to 19.1 in his second year. People may be underestimating how much swapping Giddey for Caruso could benefit Williams offensively. J-Dub’s usage rate spiked by a healthy 5.2% in the 807 regular-season minutes he logged last year with Giddey on the bench. His 29% usage in those minutes was second only to SGA’s 39.4% mark.
Even if Williams doesn’t post a usage in the 29% range for the full season, I do still expect a nice uptick in that regard. The Nuggets have been a tough defensive team in recent years, but the offseason departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will likely make them a bit more vulnerable to wing scorers. Taking Williams to finish with more than 18.5 points is my favorite square on the board.
- PLAY: Williams MORE Than 18.5 Points
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