NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/15/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Ja Morant
Ja Morant is listed as Doubtful to play in Tuesday’s game against the Pacers due to back soreness. Morant is averaging 33.3 minutes per game this season with a 33.7% usage rate and 34.5% assist rate. His absence would open up not only court time but considerable offensive responsibilities.
Morant has missed 14 games this season so we have a pretty decent sample size to work with using RotoGrinders’ CourtIQ tool. Jaren Jackson Jr. has #thrived this season in his minutes without Morant, seeing a +5.2% boost in usage rate and averaging over four more points scored per 36 minutes. At first glance, Morant’s absence has me eager to take a closer look at some Jaren Jackson props but the return of Dillon Brooks from injury has me a little hesitant. In 276 minutes of court time this season with Morant OFF and Brooks ON, Jackson has posted a 26.2% usage rate, which isn’t nearly as attractive as the 30.7% usage rate he’s posted with just Morant OFF.
One thing I am not hesitant about is Tyus Jones instantly becoming the slate’s best DFS value option once Morant is confirmed out. Jones has started the 14 games that Morant has missed this season and is simply way too cheap ($3,400 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel) for a starting role. Jones will undoubtedly be the highest rostered player on the slate but is an excellent play in all formats regardless. While I’m not fully committed to betting any Jaren Jackson Jr. overs (I do kind of like over 18.5 points though), I do think he’s an excellent tournament option in DFS, as is Desmond Bane. Neither Bane or Jackson will go overlooked on a small four-game but should see their ownership settle around the 30% range, which is arguably too low for life without Morant.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have four players listed as Questionable on Tuesday’s injury report – Goga Bitadze, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, and Lance Stephenson. It’s tough to analyze a situation with so many Questionable players but we did get a glimpse on Sunday against the Hawks what it looks like when all four miss. Terry Taylor jumped into the starting lineup and logged nearly 25 minutes of court time while Jalen Smith ended up closing out the game and playing 27 minutes. Duane Washington Jr. was the biggest surprise, playing 34 minutes off the bench and dropping a 22/3/3 line. Despite Sunday’s game, Taylor and Washington remain extremely cheap in DFS and would become viable value options if the three Questionable guards (Brogdon, Duarte, Stephenson) miss.
Brogdon, Duarte, and Stephenson’s statuses are also important for Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield who have played huge minutes since being acquired by the Pacers. Somewhat surprisingly Haliburton and Hield’s rates haven’t seen big boosts when not sharing the court with Brogdon but the extra 2-4 minutes they typically see when Brogdon is out is still notable for their raw stats. I’m interested in rostering both Haliburton and Hield in DFS if Brogdon misses in addition to eyeing up their Points & Assists overs.
Player Image Credit: Imagn