NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/28/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdan Bogdanovic missed the Hawks last game with a knee injury and is officially listed as Questionable for Monday’s game. Bogdanovic’s availability is sneakily more meaningful for DFS reasons than most people likely realize, partially due to a matchup against a Pacers team that has been atrocious defensively to end the season. Bogdanovic’s absence would also likely result in huge minutes to Atlanta’s main rotation pieces as long as the game stays close. Trae Young (39 minutes), Kevin Huerter (37), and Danilo Gallinari (37) all played north of 37 minutes with Bogdanovic out in their last game while the remaining starters De’Andre Hunter (34) and Clint Capela (30) topped 30. Even conservative projections would vault Young into one of the top overall plays on the slate if Bogdanovic is unable to suit up. Current projections at RotoGrinders have Young projected for 51.61 DraftKings points, whereas that number would jump to 57.27 points if Bogdanovic is ruled out.
While he’s not nearly as exciting as Trae Young, Kevin Huerter would not only become a solid DFS value option (mainly on FanDuel) if Bogdanovic is ruled out but also an interesting player to target in the player props market. Current RG projections show the OVER on 19.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists as a slightly favorable bet. Huerter currently projects for 20.1 Points, Rebounds, and Assists and I would expect that number to jump closer to 22 if Bogdanovic is ruled out.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Grizzlies could find themselves with an interesting frontcourt situation on Monday night with both Jaren Jackson Jr. (JJR) and Brandon Clarke Questionable. Clarke has missed the last two games with hip soreness and his absence has meant the insertion of Xavier Tillman into the rotation. Tillman has played 23 and 21 minutes over the last two games, averaging 12 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Tillman has always been a solid fantasy producer when given the opportunity so it will be important to monitor Clarke’s availability for DFS reasons. If Clarke is unable to suit up, Tillman is just a fringe value option for DFS purposes, but if both JJR and Clarke miss, Tillman would likely project for mid-20 minutes and be one of the best value options on the slate.
Jaren Jackson’s availability is much more significant for usage reasons. Ja Morant remains out for the Grizzlies and as a result JJR projects as one of the team’s highest usage players – current RotoGrinders projections have JJR with a 28.7% usage rate for Monday’s game against the Warriors. Jackson’s absence would leave a lot of usage to move around with Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane being the biggest beneficiaries. Bane currently projects for a 27.1% usage rate assuming JJR plays but that number would jump closer to the 30% mark if JJR was unavailable. With that in mind, I am eyeing up some Desmond Bane player props using ScoresAndOdds. Using current RG projections, Bane projects for 22.4 points, which indicate the OVER on 20.5 points is already a favorable bet. I like the idea of locking this bet in early as this line would become even more favorable if JJR is ruled out.
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