NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/29/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS information and online sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Rudy Gobert
Utah has multiple injuries to monitor on Tuesday night with Rudy Gobert, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Danuel House all listed as Questionable. Bogdanovic has missed Utah’s last eight games, House the last seven, and Gobert just one. Gobert’s availability is the most interesting as his absence leaves the Jazz extremely thin at center with Hassan Whiteside and Udoka Azubuike already listed out.
Eric Paschall started in Gobert’s place on Sunday and played 26 minutes while Rudy Gay played 23 minutes as the backup center (Paschall and Gay had just one minute of overlap). It’s worth noting that the Jazz lost Sunday’s game by 14 points and threw in the towel early, playing their backups – including Gay – the final six minutes of the game. It is possible Paschall could have closed out the game if close, which would have put him over 30 minutes of court time. For Paschall to have similar minutes upside on Tuesday night both Gobert and Bogdanovic would need to be inactive. If only Gobert is inactive, Paschall would likely still look like a good DFS value option, but his minutes projection would be more fragile as Bogdanovic could potentially soak up some minutes at center. Greg Monroe signed a 10-day contract with the Jazz and may also throw a wrench into potential Paschall minutes.
While working on Utah’s “What/If” projections for if Gobert is out, one thing became clear – some guys that typically don’t rebound much will need to be significantly more active on the boards. Using the ScoresAndOdds Prop Finder tool I looked at some early rebounding lines for Utah players and there are currently lines being offered for Donovan Mitchell (4.5 -140 at DraftKings Sportsbook; 5.5 + 120 at FanDuel Sportsbook), Mike Conley (3.5 +115), and Royce O’Neale (4.5 -142 at FanDuel Sportsbook). Current RotoGrinders projections have all of these listed as slightly favorable overs and as a result I like the idea of locking them in early in hopes injury news breaks our way. Even if it doesn’t, we’re still looking at neutral tickets in the worst case scenario.
Zach LaVine
Outside of Utah, Chicago is the team with the next most impactful Questionable tag in Zach LaVine. LaVine has been battling a knee injury for a while now and could sit the second leg of Chicago’s back-to-back against Washington. LaVine did play in both games of Chicago’s most recent back-to-back and every game is important for playoff seeding which makes me think LaVine is more likely to suit up than not.
However, if LaVine does miss we would likely see a notable jump in minutes for Colby White and Javonte Green, while Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu pick up a few additional minutes as well. While playing heavy minutes regardless of LaVine’s availability, DeMar DeRozan would still figure to be the biggest beneficiary in LaVine’s absence. DeRozan has seen a huge jump in usage this season (+ 6.2%) when not sharing the court with LaVine. Even with an extremely conservative projection, LaVine’s absence is worth an increase of nearly six fantasy points for DeRozan, which would make him one of the top five plays on the slate in terms of raw projection and arguably the best high-priced spend.
Player Image Credit: Imagn