NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (2/28/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
Notable NBA Injuries – DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Fred VanVleet
Post All-Star Break reports were that FVV didn’t see as much improvement on his knee as he would have liked over break so it was a bit of a surprise to not only see him active in the Raptors’ first game back but also in the second game of their back-to-back. The fact VanVleet was active in both of those games makes me think he’s likely to suit up again on Monday night but he’s the most notable Questionable tag on the slate which makes the situation worth exploring in case he ends up being inactive.
VanVleet has missed seven games this season so we have a decent sample with him off the court which we can check out using RotoGrinders’ CourtIQ tool. That sample shrinks a little if we also include OG Anunoby who remains sidelined with a finger fracture but both queries paint the same basic picture – massive rate boosts for Gary Trent Jr. and to a lesser extent Pascal Siakam. Trent has seen his usage rate jump +6.7% this season with both FVV and OG off the court this season while Siakam’s usage rate has increased +5.3%. Both players have also seen a big increase in assist rate (Trent – 6.3%; Siakam – +5.3%) in this scenario. Ultimately, Trent has scored +8.69 more DraftKings points per 36 minutes this season with Trent and Anunonby off the court while their absence hasn’t been quite as impactful for Siakam who has scored +1.24 more DK points per 36 minutes.
VanVleet’s availability isn’t only important for fantasy purposes but also for betting markets. Using ScoresAndOdds’ Prop Finder, Gary Trent’s Points, Rebounds, & Assists line is currently set at 25.5.
As RotoGrinders’ current projections (which have VanVleet projected in), project Trent for slightly over this number (25.72), there could be some value in locking this bet in early in hopes of injury news breaking your way. If you don’t want to pull the trigger just yet, keep your eye out for reports on FVV’s status throughout the day and be ready to pounce on Trent overs in case he starts trending towards being more doubtful to suit up.
Kyrie Irving
Irving is still unable to play in home games due to COVID restrictions, Kevin Durant remains sidelined with a knee injury, and Ben Simmons is listed as OUT on the injury report due to “Return to Competition Reconditioning”. That means we are back to the ragtag edition of a Nets team that we got an extended look at in their four games prior to playing Milwaukee on Saturday.
The biggest takeaway over that stretch of games was that the recently acquired Seth Curry is going to take on a much bigger offensive role than when he was playing alongside Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. Unsurprisingly, Curry was more of a complementary player in Philly – and he will be in Brooklyn when the Nets are fully healthy – with an 18.5% usage rate, averaging 15.5 points per 36 minutes. Using CourtIQ, we can easily see his role with the Nets in the four games without Kyrie has been much different, with a 24.2% usage rate, averaging 24.42 points per 36 minutes.
ScoresAndOdds’ Prop Finder shows that Curry’s point total is currently listed at 16.5 points and is available at both DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Current RotoGrinders NBA player projections, which use a more conservative 23.5% usage rate, project Curry for 18.64 points, which indicates there’s a lot of value on the over here.
Player Image Credit: Imagn