NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Friday, December 29th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.
Friday, December 29th
Happy Friday, Grinders! Welcome to the Friday edition of the NBA Starting 5 series! Fridays offer us solid slate sizes and large DFS tournaments, so it is a great day to analyze the NBA from a GPP perspective.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite tournament plays of the day. For reference, I will be using DraftKings pricing throughout the article.
Point Guard: John Wall, Washington Wizards – $8,600
I love this spot for John Wall. He had previously been playing on some sort of unspoken minutes limitation over the past few weeks, but that has been removed since Christmas. He put up a 50 fantasy point game against the Celtics on Christmas Day, and it should be all systems go moving forward. Therefore, we shouldn’t have to worry about his minutes moving forward, and Wall’s price comes at about a $1,000 discount on DraftKings compared to where he was a month ago. With those circumstances alone, we have enough ammunition to consider putting him onto our rosters tonight.
However, that’s not where the good news ends. The Wizards draw a fine pace up matchup here against a Rockets squad that ranks third in the league in tempo, and Chris Paul is questionable. There is nobody capable of checking Wall if Paul is on the sidelines, so make sure to check the news. Everything adds up to make Wall a fantastic GPP option tonight, and other DFS players might still be afraid to pull the trigger. This is the time to buy. UPDATE: Chris Paul will play on Friday, but will be limited to around 25 minutes.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns – $8,500
Speaking of the time to buy, we have a very similar circumstance with Devin Booker. He returned from a lengthy absence the other night and immediately made his presence felt for the Suns, scoring 32 points and logging a 40% usage rate in a difficult matchup against the Grizzlies. Booker also played a healthy 33 minutes in that game, which is quite the surprise for any player coming off a three week layoff. It should be all systems go for Booker moving forward, and this is a favorable matchup against the Kings. Although Sacramento does not play at a super fast pace, they rank in the bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. Booker should be ready to resume his role as the team leader for the Suns, and he’s a great tournament option as he is sure to be relatively low owned at an $8,500 price point.
Small Forward: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers – $5,600
This one is a chalky pick, but I am fine with it. I will make my lineups more contrarian with my guard picks this evening, which allows me to eat a little chalk with the frontcourt. It starts with Stephenson, who will earn another start with Victor Oladipo ruled out again. Stephenson is averaging 36 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Oladipo off the floor this year, and he played exactly 36 minutes in his start for Oladipo the other night. That makes the math pretty easy: we can safely project him for… around 36 fantasy points! At a sub-$6,000 price point, that’s safely over six times his salary. His ownership won’t be quite as high this evening because he has gotten a healthy price boost, but Stephenson remains under-priced for his current role. I’m still a buyer.
Power Forward: DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans Pelicans – $11,100
Daily fantasy players who choose to spend up for a player today will likely consider James Harden and Russell Westbrook first, and those two are certainly solid plays. However, I’m leaning toward Cousins as my favorite spend of the day. The Pelicans’ bigs have a great matchup against the Mavericks tonight, as the Mavericks have struggled for the last few years on the glass. They rank 29th in the league with a -4.5 rebounding differential this season, and that’s not good news when you have to go up against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. I’ll generally side with Cousins over Davis because of Davis’ injury history, especially when the price tags aren’t that much difference. Cousins also has a bit of a higher ceiling these days, making him the logical choice in both cash games and tournaments. As long as this game stays close, Cousins should smash. A matchup against a Dallas team that is weak on the interior also means it’s less likely that he gets into foul trouble. There’s a lot to like about Cousins in this spot.
Center: Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,300
What does the DraftKings algorithm have against Steven Adams? The man is constantly under-priced on DraftKings compared to other sites, and it continues tonight. Although Adams has gotten a slight bump on DK, he is still a fine bargain at $6,300. He is as consistent as they come, and he has upside as well. Here are his numbers for the month of December:
34 minutes played per game, 68% shooting, 16.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 0.6 BPG.
His numbers equate to about 34 DraftKings points per contest, and the floor is remarkably high. Even though we like to shoot for upside in tournaments, there is something to be said for an under-priced player with that kind of floor. You can always get upside at other spots. This is a great matchup against a Bucks team that ranks 27th in the league in rebounding differential and really struggles on the interior. Fire Adams up for another likely double-double here.
Good luck tonight, everyone! Happy New Year!