NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Friday, January 19th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.
Friday, January 19th
Happy Friday, Grinders! Welcome to the Friday edition of the NBA Starting 5 series! Fridays offer us solid slate sizes and large DFS tournaments, so it is a great day to analyze the NBA from a GPP perspective.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite tournament plays of the day. For reference, I will be using DraftKings pricing throughout the article.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat – $7,500
This is somewhat of a strange Friday night slate. We only have seven games on the docket, which is much lighter than what we normally see on a Friday. There also aren’t a whole lot of studs to pay for on the slate. As such, this article will have quite a few “mid range” plays today. It’s just the nature of the slate, as it’s going to lend to a lot more balanced lineups in the DFS world. There are some bad teams that are playing tonight, so we have to deal with what is in front of us.
Let’s get things started with Goran Dragic at the point guard spot. With Dion Waiters out for the season and Tyler Johnson also sidelined, Dragic is going to have to shoulder the load in the Miami backcourt. On the season, he is averaging 17 points, four rebounds, and five assists per game. In the month of January, he is averaging 21 points, five rebounds, and seven assists per game. That is a sizable bump across the board, and his minutes are also way up in that span. Dragic has played 35.6 minutes per game in the eight January contests. Oh, and the Heat just happen to draw a huge pace-up matchup against the Nets tonight. All aboard!
Shooting Guard: Josh Hart, Los Angeles Lakers – $4,600
Injuries are going to help us find some value this evening, and the Lakers are as banged up as any team in the league right now. Four of their primary players are injured. Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have already been ruled out for tonight’s game, while both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are questionable. The sure value comes in the backcourt since both starters are out. Luke Walton doesn’t seem to like Jordan Clarkson, so Josh Hart appears like he will be the biggest beneficiary of the two injuries. Hart has played significant minutes in Caldwell-Pope’s absences this year, and he played 26 minutes after KCP got hurt the other night. I would expect minutes in the low 30’s tonight, and while Hart is not a high usage player, this is a fantasy-friendly game between two teams that don’t mind to run. Hart is one of the better values on the board this evening.
Small Forward: Will Barton, Denver Nuggets – $6,500
It sounds like Jamal Murray is going to be out again tonight, so opportunity will open up in the Denver backcourt for both Gary Harris and Will Barton. The small forward position leaves a lot to be desired tonight, as well, so Barton’s small forward eligibility is a huge boost that cannot be ignored. He is going to be massively popular, but this is a situation where I will be happy to eat the chalk.
Why is that the case, you may ask? Well, the Nuggets have a favorable matchup against a Suns team that ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo and second to last in defensive efficiency. There’s also the matter of Barton being priced at $6,500 on DraftKings, which is just way too cheap. He has played 42 and 35 minutes over the last two games, posting lines of 22/5/6 and 17/6/6 in those contests. I would expect a higher ceiling against the Suns, and I may very well end up with 100% exposure to Barton tonight.
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers – $6,400
The previous picks in this article have all been pretty safe, so let’s make sure to attack some risk/reward GPP upside with the final two selections. Myles Turner has already been ruled out for the Pacers again tonight, which should give Domantas Sabonis an opportunity to pick up heavy minutes once again in the frontcourt. He is averaging 29 minutes per game over the last five contests, and he has snagged 11 rebounds per game in that span. His offense is the wild card factor, as he isn’t generally known for his scoring. However, the potential is there in a favorable matchup against the Lakers, especially now that noted weak interior defender Brook Lopez is back in the mix. The upside is very high, and Sabonis’ ownership will be held in check somewhat by the fact that his price tag is slightly elevated on DraftKings. I’m definitely a buyer here in tournament formats.
Center: Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings – $6,800
Speaking of uncomfortable risk/reward plays, enter Willie Cauley-Stein. He is never a safe play because we have no idea what the Kings will do with their big men, but Cauley-Stein appears to be exempt from the inconsistent rotations. He is really opening eyes this season, and here are his average stats broken down by month:
November = 24.5 MPG, 11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG
December = 27.3 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG
January = 29.9 MPG, 16.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG
His arrow is clearly pointed upward, and his presence should be needed against Memphis. He also gets a boost if Marc Gasol happens to be out or limited, but I am willing to play him in tournaments regardless of the Memphis big man’s status.
Good luck tonight, everyone!