NBA Starting 5: Monday, November 14th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
One of the things I love to take advantage of in daily fantasy is recency bias, as people can get to attracted to players based on good performances and off a guy that let them down the prior week. These trends can be most easily identified through price increases and drops with the Salary Charts tool.
Today we’re going to look at a few players who have had their price drop despite no change in their opportunity on the court.
Point Guard: Tim Frazier – $5,500 – New Orleans Pelicans
Tim Frazier has seen a $200 price drop in spite of being the starting point guard on a fast-paced team against the Boston Celtics, who really struggle with pick and roll defense.
We love attacking point guards against the undersized Isaiah Thomas, and in a game with a 211.5 total it will be near impossible for me not to have tons of Tim Frazier exposure.
Shooting Guard: Danny Green – $4,300 – San Antonio Spurs
One of the best ways to find value is to take advantage of guys who has rested recently.
Danny Green had a day off in Detroit, and as a result the algorithm lowered his price despite the fact that he is still the starting shooting guard and will play 27-30 minutes a game. For $4,300 on FanDuel, that’s a ton of minutes we can take advantage for a punt option.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard – $8,500 – San Antonio Spurs
I’m really not sure what Kawhi did to deserve a $400 price drop other than not make a couple of shots last game against the Rockets.
Kawhi is a superstar who can contribute in all the categories and the lack of rebounds, assists and blocks lately isn’t sustainable, so taking advantage of Kawhi at this slightly reduced price is a great play in tournaments.
Power Forward: Kristaps Porzingis – $6,800 – New York Knicks
Kristaps is the future in New York (and the present), so seeing him on the price drop list is pretty surprising. Porzingis has scored 20 or more real-life points in four of his last five and has been producing in all the categories.
This price drop seems to be a result of the 23 minutes he played in Boston thanks to foul trouble. That isn’t going to be a problem going forward, so taking advantage of this price drop in a good spot against a very immobile Dallas front court is optimal.
Center: Kelly Olynyk – $4,000 – Boston Celtics
Sometimes it’s not just price drops you should be looking at; price increases can also be important, and that’s the case here with Kelly Olynyk. Kelly came back from a shoulder injury and has immediately become a scorer on the second unit playing 28-30 minutes a game.
While his price on DraftKings has risen $1,500, it has only gone up $500 on FanDuel, and that makes him a situational good play over on FanDuel in this matchup against the Pelicans where neither Asik, nor Anthony Davis can cover out to the three-point line.