NBA Starting 5: Thursday, February 23rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
First of all, let me tell you that everything is almost all right again. I know it’s been a tough few days. With no basketball on, you’ve probably had to spend time with your kids, actually spend a full eight hours doing your job, and you probably learned a new language this week.
Don’t worry though. You can stop all that productive thinking that’s been going on in the last week for a whole year, because basketball is about to be back again. If you’re reading this on Wednesday, keep in mind that as things change on Thursday and that I will update this article if necessary.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and USG%. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans, $7,500
I have no clue how the Pelicans are going to look with two of the best big men in the league roaming the floor doing whatever the hell they want, but I know it’s going to be fun. We have little information on what’s going to happen to Holiday’s fantasy production, but where there’s uncertainty there’s opportunity. Over Holiday’s last 11 games, he has had five efforts with over 50 DK points and has only failed to score 36 once in that span. His price for some ridiculous reason has dropped back down to $7,500, which is $1,300 cheaper than it was just two games before the All-Star break.
Although the addition of Boogie may take away a bit of Holiday’s usage, the Pelicans lost a ton of depth at the guard position by sending pretty much everyone they have at the position over to the Kings. With the lack of depth and the unknown situation that the Pelicans have, I’m going to be playing a lot of Holiday this Thursday. Yes, he draws a tough matchup against Patrick Beverley defense, but this game is going to be very high paced and fun to watch. Play him; the worst case scenario is that at least it gives me a reason to watch the game.
Shooting Guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons, $4,900
This is not a cash game play. If you play him in cash, there’s a decent chance that at the end of the night you will end the night punching a hole through the wall. There is a few reasons why I will be playing Caldwell on Thursday though. Firstly, he is under $5,000 for the first time since mid-December. At that price, he’s at least been getting close to 5x as of late, and that’s with his shooting percentage being lower than my standards, for both women and food.
Over the last four games, KCP has thrown up 27 shots from behind the arc and only managed to make five. If you can’t do the math, you’re more likely to remember your wife’s birthday than he is to make a shot. He’s been averaging close to 15 shots from the floor over the last four games and they just haven’t seemed to be falling. Add to this that KCP is averaging about 12 shots per game in three games against Hornets this season. If he keeps up this current pace of shooting and his shots actually start falling, with his ability to contribute on the rest of the floor, KCP has a real shot at a 50 DK point game.
In addition, CHA is 26th in the league against the SG spot and is middle of the pack in terms of pace, so they shouldn’t have any negative impact on KCP’s spot in the offense here. Again, this is just a GPP shot as it is any time you play KCP, but with everyone getting burned playing him in the last four games, he may take a pretty big dip in ownership, and he has the shot to win you a tournament.
Small Forward: Maurice Harkless, Portland Trail Blazers, $4,500
As of this point right now, it looks like Aminu is going to be sitting in the game Thursday, and with Evan Turner out for a while, it should mean that Harkless is going to be getting a significant amount of playing time. This is really more of a cash game play than a GPP play, as Harkless’s upside isn’t really high, but his floor is fairly high. There are several high-priced plays at the SF position that I would probably play ahead of Harkless, but those are obvious, so I don’t need to mention who they are.
In the three games since Turner has been out, Harkless has hit 20 DK points in each, and one of those matchups was against Utah, which we could have expected more from him had it been against anyone else. Normally, we can’t expect a whole lot from Harkless, but he is going against Jeff Green, who ranks 70th out of 79 eligible SFs in terms of DRPM. You can expect 25 to 30 DK points out of Harkless in this matchup, more than enough to pay off his price, which is still slightly too low.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers, $9,100
In the month of February, Griffin has been hotter than the waitresses of every single Denny’s in the US (not saying much, but when you’re there at 3 AM, it’s a whole different story). He’s put of 50 DK points in all but two games this month and has not failed to reach 39 points. He faces one of the highest paced teams in the NBA in the Warriors, who are also middle of the pack in terms of rebounding and rank 22nd in terms of DvP against the PF position.
I am worried a little bit about a blowout here, as GS did beat them by 50 last time they played in GS, but in that game Curry was spitting hot fire and didn’t even have to look at the basket in order to make a shot. I expect this game to stay closer and be similar to the game they played in LA where they lost by 13 and Griffin put up 50 DK points. With a few higher priced players on the board on this slate, I’d rather take the $1,000 to $3,000 price savings on a player that has the same upside as anyone else on the board.
Center: Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic, $7,100
There are TWO obvious plays at the C position on this slate. As of late, Jokic has been hotter than pizza rolls fresh out of the microwave, and he has been a player that I will roster every single slate until his price goes over $11,000. Willie Cauley-Stein is going to be one of the top value plays on the slate, but I think that Vucevic is just as good of a play.
Before Portland got rid of Plumlee, they are already a pretty good matchup for centers, and now with Leonard starting at C, picking on them is like picking on the sleeping kid at the slumber party. On the season they rank 26th in terms of DvP against the C, and at this moment it is even worse. Nurkic is a decent defender, but he’s not going to be in there for long, and even if he is he’s probably going to foul out. Vucevic has had three games over 40 DK points in his last five and has the upside for 50 in this plus pace matchup.
In addition, Vucevic has had double-digit rebounds in five straight and is averaging close to 30 minutes in that span. Play Jokic or Willy if you wish, but if you want a pivot off of them, Vucevic is a great option.