NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 10th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to take a look at Ceiling and Consistency tool over the past four weeks to help identify today’s top plays on FanDuel. We have a nine-game slate and a nice mix of high and low spreads, so we shouldn’t have much trouble finding solid play at each position.
As always, the tool we’re focusing on is just one piece of the puzzle, and we’ll have to look deeper to determine if we truly want to be using a particular player this evening.
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks, $6,900 on FanDuel
Trailing only Kyrie Irving (horrible matchup at Utah) and Rajon Rondo (out of the rotation) in 4x percentage, Schroder looks like a lock cash game play tonight on the road facing a Nets team that has been shredded by opposing point guards all season. They’ve consistently defended the position worse than every other team in the league. They play at a fast pace, and given this game is in Brooklyn, it should stay close enough that Schroder and the other starters will see a full complement of minutes. Schroder has a likely floor of around 30 with upside over 40 tonight, and he’s a top option in all game formats.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $11,700
Shooting guard is a mess tonight as the player pool is full of guys who are either questionable, doubtful, or out tonight. The normally consistent Giannis Antetokounmpo draws a poor matchup on the road in San Antonio, leaving Harden as the unquestioned top play. Harden is matchup-proof and as consistent as it gets. He’s unlikely to finish much higher than 5x, assuming he reaches that level at all, but he’s also one of the few, if not the only, players at the shooting guard position that offers little to no risk of finishing with a dud.
On a site like FanDuel where you have to roster two shooting guards, it makes a lot of sense to fill one of those slots with Harden to reduce your exposure to higher-risk plays. He’s essentially a lock to finish with around 50 fantasy points, and can easily approach 60.
Small Forward: Doug McDermott, Chicago Bulls, $4,000
Sure, the numbers don’t look particularly impressive, but understand these values came from games where McDermott was not a primary source of offense. With both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler out tonight, McDermott should play big minutes and become a focal point of the Bulls offense. This is a perfect example of a situation where we need to look outside the context of just one tool and understand that the number one requirement for success in daily fantasy basketball is being able to properly assess injury situations and figure out who is going to benefit the most. McDermott should easily finish above 20 fantasy points, and could reach the 30 point mark
Power Forward: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, $4,500
Editor’s Note: Nikola Mirotic (illness) has been ruled OUT for tonight.
Mirotic’s numbers aren’t bad for a sometimes inconsistent bench option. With Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler out tonight, Mirotic will be forced into heavy minutes and a significantly increased role on offense. I expect him to operate as the focal point of Chicago’s offense for much of the night, and he should absolutely crush value at just $4,500. Like McDermott, Mirotic stands to see a massive boost in production due to an injury situation, and we have to prioritize that above all else.
Center: Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks, $7,600
Howard draws a terrific matchup against a fast-paced Nets team that has struggled against opposing centers (and every other position for that matter) all season. Brooklyn does not rebound well, which should lead to a huge game on the glass for Howard. He’s been very consistent, hitting the 4x mark 80% of the time while meeting or exceeding 5x half of the time over the past four weeks. This is a game where I think he’s a near lock to exceed 5x. There’s almost nothing better than a road matchup against the Nets, so expect a huge game from Howard at a reasonable price tag.